Evidence of meeting #15 for Finance in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was bia.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Thank you, Madam Chair.
In recent years, the Trudeau government has signed ad hoc health care agreements. Money was therefore paid to the provinces in addition to the Canada health transfer, which increased federal health funding by 5.8% per year. However, these one-off agreements are expiring.
Do I understand correctly from reading the budget that, since these one-time agreements are not being renewed, health transfers to Quebec and the provinces will overall decrease over the next few years?
Director, Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
In the budget, the 5% increase in the health transfer is not being renewed.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Health transfers will therefore decrease.
You know, public finances are interconnected. It's often said that there's only one taxpayer at the end of the day. When the federal government decides not to increase health transfers, in Quebec, taxpayers pay more, the government goes into debt or the government reduces services.
Mr. Turnbull is walking around with his ChatGPT and telling us that Canada's debt as a share of GDP is lower than Germany's. However, when we look at the figures that include the debts of the provinces in Canada and the Länder in Germany, we see that Canada's debt-to-GDP ratio is actually 10 percentage points higher than that of Germany.
Do you think that taking provincial debt into account in the analysis of public finances is relevant, given that the provinces provide most of the services?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Obviously, it is important to include Canada's provinces, among other elements, in these analyses.
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
Am I correct in saying that at the time of the signing of the treaty that created the European Union, the Maastricht treaty that my colleague Mr. Leitão likes a lot, there were caps on the deficit as a share of GDP and on the debt as a share of GDP?
Am I correct in saying that, at the time, the debt of all the Länder, the provinces and other states that were not national states were also included in the calculation of the debt? Am I correct that it was the overall debt that mattered?
Am I right to say that, in Canada, not increasing health transfers could have an effect on provincial debt and, consequently, on Canada's overall debt?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I agree with you on the Maastricht treaty.
As for the impact of the change on federal transfers to the provinces, it will depend on the reaction of the provinces.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Mr. Jacques.
Thank you, Mr. Garon.
I now give the floor to Mr. Lefebvre for five minutes.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Thank you, Madam Chair.
I want to remind the viewers watching us that the role of the Parliamentary Budget Officer is to conduct a neutral and non-partisan analysis.
Mr. Jacques, you are the acting Parliamentary Budget Officer. First of all, I want to take a moment today to say thank you. Thank you for being an excellent communicator and sharing your expertise with us. You're thorough. You're perfectly bilingual. You are speaking in both official languages, English and French. You're very credible. You're very available. We've met with you a number of times. I would say, as a bonus, that you are a very nice person. You check all the boxes for this position. You have experience now. If you ever decide to apply for the position of Parliamentary Budget Officer, I assure you that I will support your application. I hope and am convinced that all my colleagues here would also support your candidacy for this position. Thank you for the work you do.
We've heard from the Liberals today about the impact of the U.S. tariffs. Yesterday, Prime Minister Carney asked who was interested.
I would like to know if you are interested in the negotiations with the United States regarding the budget. I think that's an important piece. That has a significant impact on the budget. Personally, when I hear the Prime Minister of Canada ask who cares, I am concerned.
How do you see this intervention?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Indeed, tariffs between Canada and the United States are an important variable in our economic forecast.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Do you find it troubling to hear the Prime Minister ask who exactly is interested in this? He tells us that he is no longer interested in tariffs between the United States and Canada.
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I haven't seen the Prime Minister's comments on that.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Okay.
You'll see it on social media. It's all over X right now.
You said that you had trouble getting information from certain departments, or that it was more difficult, but that it wasn't the case at the Department of Finance.
Can you specify in which departments it is more difficult to obtain information?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
With regard to our requests for information on the cuts proposed by the Government of Canada in the 2025 budget, there are gaps when it comes to obtaining specific data on Fisheries and Oceans Canada's budget cuts. The government will implement a plan to reduce the department's budget by 15%.
We've asked for details on the programs and the number of positions that are affected, the impact on services, and other things like that, but we haven't received them yet. That's why we decided to provide all the data on this discussion, this conflict, to the Speaker of the House of Commons and the Speaker of the Senate, so that members can rectify the situation.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Were you told when they would be able to provide you with the information you requested? Is there a time limit?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, we're now awaiting a ruling from the Speaker of the House of Commons.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
The Liberal government says that it will balance its operating budget in three years, as it has promised several times.
Do you think that's possible?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes, that's entirely possible, because the Government of Canada has the power to make certain policy changes and make changes in terms of revenues and expenditures. With this type of control, it is always possible to achieve a balance in operating expenditures.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Basically, you're saying that it's budgetary manoeuvres that make it possible to play with the numbers to arrive at—
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
In terms of the budget agreement, we did some comparisons. We did an estimate of the likelihood of the Government of Canada succeeding in reducing the deficit-to-GDP ratio. However, we haven't done the same evaluations with the operating balance, since the data we have is limited.
Conservative
Éric Lefebvre Conservative Richmond—Arthabaska, QC
Would you agree that these are accounting tricks that make it possible to be creative and improve the country's financial image?
Interim Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
In terms of the operating balance, I think there's a mathematical connection to the budget agreement. In that kind of situation, in that context, I would imagine that the likelihood of making the budget balance—
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Karina Gould
Thank you, Mr. Jacques and Mr. Lefebvre. Your time is up.
We'll continue with Mr. Turnbull for five minutes.
Liberal
Ryan Turnbull Liberal Whitby, ON
Thanks, Chair.
I note that in your previous testimony, in answers to my questions, you had indicated just how important this finance committee's role is. I think it's shocking that the opposition members don't want to study the budget implementation act at this committee, although having previously indicated that your testimony should be included as part of that, which, I think, is a good thing, we can all agree. I really think we owe it to Canadians to have these debates, but to do so in the context of government legislation, which is the BIA.
I move:
That, given that the committee has already passed a motion to invite the Parliamentary Budget Officer as part of our upcoming consideration of the budget implementation act, and given that the Parliamentary Budget Officer has reasserted that the budget implementation act deserves timely and thorough consideration by this committee, the committee agree to conduct a prestudy on the budget implementation act, and agree to hold a meeting of the Subcommittee on Agenda and Procedure on Wednesday, November 26, 2025, to confirm timelines and next steps.
I know that members opposite had indicated in their remarks that we should have a—
Liberal
Bloc
Jean-Denis Garon Bloc Mirabel, QC
As I understand it, Madam Chair, when a motion has already been put forward in committee, it has been debated and we have adjourned debate on that motion, it cannot be brought back. My understanding is that this motion is largely out of order.
Mr. Turnbull is doing indirectly what he can't do directly; his original motion scheduled a study of the budget—