Finance Committee on Nov. 24th, 2025

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Thank you, Mr. Jacques.

We'll continue with Mr. Hallan.

You have five minutes, please.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

Thanks, Chair.

Mr. Jacques, you identified in your report that the government only has a 7.5% chance of meeting one of its own fiscal targets of a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio. If it doesn't meet that ratio, what are the consequences?

[Jason Jacques]

In terms of the consequences, it raises questions in terms of the government's overall fiscal management strategy. To the extent that one has a plan, there are targets within that plan. If those targets aren't being met, it raises the question of whether it's the right plan or whether there potentially needs to be a change in the overall execution.

Some of the other indicators beyond that specific target in terms of the fiscal anchor are, obviously, the $1 trillion number—so, the substantial planned increase in investment within the Canadian economy—as well as a doubling of trade outside of the United States. Those are some other indicators as well.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

Suppose they don't meet that target. Would that shake investor confidence, in your opinion?

[Jason Jacques]

I don't think I'm well placed to hazard an opinion with respect to the response of financial markets should the government not meet its fiscal anchors.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

Okay, that's fair.

When you rightly said that they changed the fiscal anchor after, like, 30 years from debt-to-GDP to deficit-to-GDP, if this government had kept the debt-to-GDP ratio, do you think its chances to meet that target about it declining would be lower?

[Jason Jacques]

I won't answer a hypothetical question, but with that said, mathematically, had they kept it, the government would have needed to potentially make different decisions within the budget. This is because, as we see within the government's own forecast, looking out over the next 10 years, the debt-to-GDP ratio is increasing. Over a 30-year horizon, it's effectively flat.

The previous government and previous governments before that had a declining debt-to-GDP ratio over a five-year horizon. Had the government decided that it wanted to maintain that fiscal anchor, potentially different decisions would have needed to be taken as part of the budget.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

The Governor of the Bank of Canada was here and once again raised the alarm bells on our productivity and its tie-in with standards of living and how they're going down for Canadians. I would like to get your thoughts on what a decline in productivity and subsequently the standard of living means for Canadians, in your opinion.

[Jason Jacques]

Productivity is one of the key inputs, both within our medium-term economic forecast and also our longer-term economic forecast, as part of fiscal sustainability. Fiscal sustainability is a lot easier to achieve with a higher productivity rate, higher productivity growth.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

Is our productivity a concern to you, though?

[Jason Jacques]

Productivity, when you look at it over the past 40 years within Canada, has been declining over time. It's something that has rightfully seized the attention of both parliamentarians and economists.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

On Canada's current fiscal situation, what are your thoughts on the current unemployment rate and the youth unemployment rate?

[Jason Jacques]

It's certainly something that we pay attention to every month when the labour force statistics are released. Going back to the question of productivity and also just output within the economy, when there are over 400,000 people between the ages of 15 and 24 who are looking for full-time jobs right now, who are searching for them and can't find them, that's a lot of untapped potential across the economy that could potentially boost growth and improve productivity.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

What does that say about the current state of our economy?

[Jason Jacques]

Well, I didn't watch the governor when he was here, but I'm sure, going back to a point the governor probably mentioned, there's slack in the economy right now. That slack in the economy is a euphemism, but again, you drill down, and it gets down to those 400,000 kids between the ages of 15 and 24 who are looking for full-time work and can't find it.

[Jasraj Singh Hallan, Conservative, Calgary East, AB]

Right.

I have just a quick question about our GDP per capita. What are your thoughts on it?

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Thank you, Mr. Hallan. We're going to have to end there.

Thank you, Mr. Jacques.

We'll go to Mr. Turnbull for five minutes, please.

[Ryan Turnbull, Liberal, Whitby, ON]

Thanks, Chair.

Picking up where I left off, I wanted to switch tracks a bit and ask you about the net debt-to-GDP ratio. Who has the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7?

[Jason Jacques]

Within the G7, that would be Canada, I believe.

[Ryan Turnbull, Liberal, Whitby, ON]

Yes, at 13.3%. The second lowest is Germany. Do you know what level Germany is at?

[Jason Jacques]

Off the top of my head, I do not.

[Ryan Turnbull, Liberal, Whitby, ON]

It's in the budget on page 6: 48.7%. Canada is at 13.3%. Canada is significantly better in terms of net debt-to-GDP ratio than all of the G7, including Germany. We also have, I believe, one of the lowest deficit-to-GDP ratios in the G7. Are you aware of that?

[Jason Jacques]

I am.

[Ryan Turnbull, Liberal, Whitby, ON]

Do you know that Germany's is higher than Canada's?

[Jason Jacques]

I do.