Evidence of meeting #36 for Finance in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was quebec.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

Members speaking

Before the committee

Robson  Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual
Schirle  Professor, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, As an Individual
Dufort  President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute
Giguère  Senior Policy Analyst, Montreal Economic Institute

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Welcome to meeting number 36 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance.

Today's meeting is taking place in a hybrid format, pursuant to the Standing Orders.

Before we continue, I'll ask all in-person participants to consult the guidelines written on the cards on the table. These measures are in place to help prevent audio feedback incidents and to protect the health and safety of all participants, including the interpreters.

I would like to remind participants of the following points.

Please wait until I recognize you by name before speaking. For those participating via video conference, click on the microphone icon to activate your mic, and please mute yourself when you are not speaking.

For those on Zoom, at the bottom of your screen, you can select the appropriate channel for interpretation: floor, English or French. For those in the room, you can use the earpiece and select the desired channel.

Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted by the committee on Monday, March 9, the committee is commencing its study of federal spending power.

I would like to welcome our witnesses.

As individuals, we have Jennifer Robson, associate professor at Carleton University, and Tammy Schirle, professor in the department of economics at Wilfrid Laurier University. From the Montreal Economic Institute, we have Daniel Dufort, president and chief executive officer, and Gabriel Giguère, senior policy analyst.

We will commence with you, Ms. Robson. Every witness has five minutes.

Thank you.

Jennifer Robson Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual

Thank you so much.

Good afternoon. I'm delighted to be here this afternoon.

I'm going to apologize in advance. Unfortunately, I'm unable to use the simultaneous interpretation, as the earpiece connection doesn't seem to be working on this particular unit. Maybe that's something for capital spending. It's just a suggestion.

I'm an associate professor of political management at Carleton University—

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Ms. Robson, after you provide your opening remarks, we'll ask someone from IT to either fix that or move you over—

4:20 p.m.

Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual

Jennifer Robson

No worries. I'm happy to manage without. That's fine. Thank you, though.

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Are you fluently bilingual?

4:20 p.m.

Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual

Jennifer Robson

Yes. I'll be able to understand, for sure.

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Okay.

4:20 p.m.

Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual

Jennifer Robson

I have a few affiliations to get out of the way first. As you know, I'm a professor at Carleton University. I'm co-editor of the Finances of the Nation feature in the Canadian Tax Journal, and I'm a member of the editorial boards of Canadian Public Policy and Canadian Public Administration. I'm published in some areas of federal spending, tax and transfer policy, and I should also disclose that, many years ago, I was an adviser in the intergovernmental affairs portfolio. My employer, of course, would like me to remind you that I'm here today as an individual and that my testimony reflects only my own views.

As you begin this study, I'll make a couple of comments that I would like to share with you for your consideration.

First, Canada is a federation and has generally demonstrated a very flexible approach with areas of effective responsibility shifting over time, sometimes towards greater decentralization, such as workforce development and immigration programs, and at other times towards greater centralization, such as income security and environmental protection. By international standards, Canada remains one of the more decentralized federations in the world. This may seem like an anodyne statement to begin with for this study, but I think that the study of spending power should always be grounded in the question of “spending power to do what?” in a federation.

Federal and provincial governments maintain separate and independent powers to raise revenues. Of course, spending has to come from somewhere. However, Canadians benefit substantially from efficiency gains in intergovernmental collaboration on the collection of income taxes, taxes that provide an important revenue source for public spending. I don't want to dwell too long on the question of fiscal capacity within the federation, but I do want to note that, while the federal government's annual income tax revenues exceed those of all provinces combined, when we look at total revenue sources for all the provinces combined, total combined provincial revenues from all sources exceed those of the federal government, whether we look at nominal dollars, real per capita dollars or percentage of GDP.

Federal and provincial legislatures also maintain separate powers to spend money and to attach conditions for recipients of that spending. With regard to the federal spending power, the focus of the committee's study today, there are competing arguments regarding the scope or limits of that power. Courts in Canada, provincial and national, have recognized the legitimacy of a federal spending power, including the right of this Parliament to impose conditions on spending so long as those conditions do not amount to the regulation of an area of policy in provincial jurisdiction. I suggest that this limitation requires the conditions not to be so directive as to amount to a regulatory intent in pith or in substance and that the recipient jurisdiction can voluntarily agree to the conditions, making them a shared policy aim of two independent orders of government in the federation.

I'd like to close with three brief observations for consideration by the committee in this study.

First, the last decade has seen an important increase in the share of federal funding flowing through transfers outside of transfers to persons and outside of the major block transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities. These other transfers are the grants and contributions programs most likely to impose conditions on the recipients—at times, I would say, stretching reasonable interpretations of the federal spending power of this Parliament. When those conditions are excessive and overly directive, and particularly when they attempt to leverage provincial or municipal policy changes unrelated or only tangentially related to the stated purpose of the federal allocation in Parliament, I would suggest that they are—and rightly so—open to challenge by provinces. However, I would emphasize that even when problematic conditions do exist, this Parliament has continued to approve supply. Issues in the federal spending power are not simply a question of executive overreach. Parliament has power to exercise.

Second, aims to buy or nudge subnational policy change, however well intentioned—whether on provincially regulated early learning and child care or in rates of municipal housing approvals—are likely to be a source of strain on the fabric of the federation. From my own research and analysis, they may not be effective over the longer term unless it is policy change that the province is already prepared and interested in making. Recall that federal shares of conditional contributions—

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Ms. Robson, can you conclude rapidly?

4:25 p.m.

Associate Professor, Carleton University, As an Individual

Jennifer Robson

Absolutely.

Finally, I will note that the secrets to success in Canadian federalism are co-operation, mutual respect across jurisdictional boundaries and partnerships in the interests of our fellow citizens. As the committee considers testimony and evidence for the study, I would urge you to consider the overall worrisome environment that we find ourselves in as a country and to look for opportunities to strengthen intergovernmental agreement in the federation.

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Thank you, Ms. Robson. I'm going to have to complete it there.

We're going to continue with Ms. Schirle, please, for five minutes.

Tammy Schirle Professor, Department of Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, As an Individual

Thank you, Madam Chair, for inviting me to appear before the committee.

Regarding federal spending power, I know there are many legal scholars and political scientists with much to say. However, I am neither of those. I am a professor of economics at Wilfrid Laurier University. My research has focused on Canadian labour markets and public policy, with an emphasis on retirement pension policy and understanding how men and women move differently through our labour markets.

From that perspective, I will present my general thoughts on when it appears best to use federal spending power. To fix ideas, I will focus on Canadians' need for early learning and child care services.

First, I question whether there is a problem common across provinces that cannot be solved by allowing the markets to operate freely. Here, I'm primarily looking for what economists call a market failure, which is really about identifying situations in which something is preventing the market from operating efficiently. Consequently, some resources are being wasted instead of making Canadians better off.

The market for early learning and child care services is a market that suffers from such failures. In this market, the most significant cause of market failure is information asymmetry. Put simply, parents are unable to fully observe the quality of care a child receives while they are not present, which ultimately leads to an excessive supply of lower-quality care in a free market. Credit constraints, which reflect parents' inability to borrow money to pay for care, are a second cause of market failure. As well, there are significant long-term benefits to children and society as a whole that individual parents may not consider in their decision-making, which leads to underinvestment in these services. For more details on that market, I recommend reading Elizabeth Dhuey's work published in Canadian Public Policy in 2024.

These market failures are common across provinces, and we have seen opportunities for provinces to learn from one another in designing policy for early learning and child care services. As you know, Quebec was a leader in developing affordable child care policies, from which we learned about the impact on local labour markets and the importance of managing quality of care when facing high demand for services. We continue to learn from Quebec's early experiences. Recent research has shown the importance of child care in reducing the career costs of motherhood and even grandmotherhood.

A second factor I consider when judging federal spending is whether policy has the potential to reduce frictions across regional markets. In the context of early learning and child care, one could think of the average mom deciding on whether to take a job in another region and facing the constraints associated with her need for child care. Is it available, affordable and of high quality? By having some national standards and programs, we might improve how families flow across markets, as well as women's ability to remain attached to the labour force in the long term. There's a nice parallel with the benefits of having the Canada pension plan. A family may be thinking ahead to retirement. One of the Canada pension plan's best features is its portability between jobs anywhere across the country, making it easier to make a big career move.

A third factor I consider when judging federal spending is the size of benefits that accrue to Canadians over time. This may be referred to as the marginal value of public funds. To fix ideas, we might think of a young woman who is graduating high school in Antigonish. She might want to come to Waterloo to study engineering, with the potential for working in Calgary or Montreal and then returning to Fredericton for retirement. Along the way, she'll become a mother, but her career plans will be affected by the availability of affordable, high-quality care and education for her child. Expecting to find the services she needs, she can comfortably go ahead with her plan.

Empirically, the benefits of such programs have proven sizable. Children receive high-quality care, and women can find greater continuity in their careers, ultimately earning more while children are young and over their lifetimes—and even relying less on grandparents' earlier-than-optimal retirement in order to care for their grandchildren. That better career leads to a better pension and less reliance on programs that support low-income seniors. Despite the short-term costs involved in a specific province, the benefits accrue over the course of many decades and, potentially, across many provinces.

To summarize, I see three important questions to ask regarding the use of federal spending power.

First, are there market failures shared by provinces that we can help manage?

Second, is there potential for the policy to reduce frictions across markets?

Third, what are the full benefits of a policy over time and across provinces?

With that, I thank you for your attention and would welcome questions from the committee.

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Thank you very much, Ms. Schirle.

Mr. Dufort, you have the floor for five minutes.

Daniel Dufort President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Thank you, Madam Chair and members of the committee, for having us.

We are here to give you an appraisal of the current situation from a more economic than constitutional standpoint and to propose solutions to reduce deficits, slow debt growth and grow the Canadian economy.

The current budgetary challenge is first and foremost a spending problem, and the solution lies in disciplined program spending, a systematic review of government missions, including spending in provincial jurisdictions and reforms that reward investment, entrepreneurship and productivity.

I have some data here that show the scope of the problem.

The deficit announced for this year is $78.3 billion, a $30 billion increase from the previous year. In addition, the amount of debt servicing currently stands at $55.6 billion, and it is projected to rise to $76.1 billion by 2030. In other words, the federal government's budgetary flexibility is shrinking before our very eyes.

A recent economic note from the Montreal Economic Institute, prepared by economist Trevor Tombe, reminds us of a simple reality: even without new initiatives, federal spending is growing faster than federal revenues. Over the next few years, federal revenues are expected to increase by about 3.8% per year, while several spending items will increase at a larger rate. Without corrective measures, we're looking at a $117 billion deficit by 2035.

Some of the pressures going forward are already known. We can think of military defence spending, which is expected to increase to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, which will require a very rapid increase. The same is true for benefits paid to seniors, which are increasing rapidly as a result of the aging population.

At the same time, there are budget concerns associated with costly federal programs that encroach on provincial jurisdictions. We can think of the Canadian dental care regime, which is expected to cost $13 billion over five years, and $4.4 billion after that, as well as federal pharmacare, with additional public costs estimated over time to be $13.4 billion. The idea is not to deny the need, but to avoid duplicating structures and funding the same thing twice. In short, it's a matter of respecting provincial jurisdictions.

A review of the federal government's approach to spending in areas of provincial jurisdiction would be advisable, since more needs to be done to properly fund areas that fall under the federal government's primary missions, such as defence.

I'll just conclude by saying that if we want to preserve essential public services and the government's ability to act, we need to get spending under control, review the size and efficiency of the federal government and remove barriers to investment and productivity.

Thank you very much.

The Chair Liberal Karina Gould

Thank you very much, Mr. Dufort.

We'll commence now with Mr. Kelly for six minutes, please.

4:30 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB

Monsieur Dufort, we're studying the power and use of federal spending. Today we had an announcement by the federal government, which has found a new avenue and a new way to exercise its powers with a $25-billion so-called sovereign wealth fund. Wealth funds are normally from government surpluses—not borrowed money that is added to deficits. Do you have any comments on this new use of federal spending power?

4:35 p.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Daniel Dufort

The whole idea of a sovereign wealth fund is to reinvest surpluses, but our federal government has been running deficits for about 18 years. The first condition doesn't seem to be met.

Second, it looks like the sort of economic policy we've seen in the past with the Canada Infrastructure Bank. It was a bad economic policy 10 years ago and it's still a bad economic policy today.

The idea behind a sovereign wealth fund is to reinvest surpluses. The federal government is running deficits, so this first condition does not appear to be met. This is very familiar; it looks like the kind of economic policy we saw 10 years ago under the Trudeau government with the Canada Infrastructure Bank. It was bad economic policy 10 years ago under Prime Minister Trudeau—

4:35 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB

Just to jump in, has the federal infrastructure bank, in your view, been a failed policy? Is that fair to say?

4:35 p.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Daniel Dufort

It would not appear to have capitalized private investments in a way that would—

4:35 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB

Okay. It failed to achieve what it set out to achieve. It absorbed cash that was spent on salaries and administration, without delivering projects. Is that a fair assessment?

4:35 p.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Daniel Dufort

It would appear to be so.

4:35 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB

Okay.

However, this new fund announced today has similar objectives as a tool to generate investment in the Canadian economy. This seems to be doubling down on a failed approach. Would that be a fair assessment?

4:35 p.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Daniel Dufort

Generally, a sovereign wealth fund would be investing outside of your own country.

4:35 p.m.

Conservative

Pat Kelly Conservative Calgary Crowfoot, AB

In a true sovereign wealth fund, a country with a surplus exports inflation and invests in other economies as a hedge against its own economy. Are these the sorts of things that a sovereign wealth fund would normally entail?

4:35 p.m.

President and Chief Executive Officer, Montreal Economic Institute

Daniel Dufort

From the details we have now, it is a very peculiar kind of sovereign wealth fund that looks more like industrial policy being rebranded than what would be typical of a sovereign wealth fund.