Finance Committee on June 8th, 2026

[Galen Countryman]

The chief actuary reports to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Okay. Who does the Superintendent of Financial Institutions report to?

[Galen Countryman]

I believe they report to the Minister of Finance. It's the Minister of Finance who is required to table the chief actuary's reports in Parliament.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Okay. Is it the office of the chief actuary that publishes the report on their website?

[Galen Countryman]

Yes.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Okay. What we don't know, which is the missing piece, is how many people actually view it.

[Galen Countryman]

I do not have that information.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

You get my point: If a tree falls in a forest and no one hears it, does it really make a noise?

[An hon. member]

Oh, oh!

[Galen Countryman]

Again, it's—

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

I understand that everyone can have a little laugh. We can have a bit of fun here, but to me, that's an issue. If I went to 40 million Canadians, how many of them would be able to identify what's in the triennial evaluation?

[Galen Countryman]

I guess it depends where they look at what's available to them.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Quite frankly—and this is serious—when I'm knocking on doors, people will say to me, based on where the CPP was in the 1990s, because I don't think the information has been communicated effectively, “Well, I will never see CPP, because it's insolvent.”

[A voice]

That's true.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

That happens on a regular basis. These are people who are concerned about their retirements, so this is a very serious issue.

I do want to get across to you that it is not just the obligation of government and your role in that to create accurate numbers. Yes, you have to do that, but it's also your obligation to make sure that they are communicated effectively.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Mr. Lawrence, with all due respect, Mr. Countryman is here to answer technical questions. Political decisions are coming up, so keep your comments technical, please.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Sure.

In 2050, because of the reduction from 9.9% to 9.5%, how many billions of dollars less will there be in total in the CPP fund?

[Galen Countryman]

I have that here; give me a moment, please.

The total assets are projected to be $239 billion, or 8% lower, by 2050.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

It will be how much?

[Galen Countryman]

It will be $239 billion.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Is that with the amendment?

[Galen Countryman]

That's with the amendment.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

How much would it have been if it had not been amended?

[Galen Countryman]

If it had not been amended.... I have to do the math here.

It will be $2.7 trillion with the amendment, so it would have been $2.9 trillion without the amendment.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

It will be $200 billion less because of that.

As I was discussing earlier with your colleague Mr. Stuart, my understanding is, first of all, in the near term—and I want to make sure for all the folks out there who are door knocking and talking to Canadians—the CPP is solvent, and for the short term, there is no concern; however, this does have an impact over the longer term. If, in fact, for example, we had a recession that extended to four years or we had a confluence of events, such as lower incomes or higher unemployment, we could erode it, and the MCR could go above the current rate of contributions.

Is that not correct?