Finance Committee on June 8th, 2026

[Andrew Lawton, Conservative, Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON]

Well, earlier that was what I was attempting to do. I was attempting to move a motion to suspend for question period, so I will attempt this again. I would at this point move to suspend for the duration of oral questions.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

We will move to a vote now.

(Motion negatived: nays 6; yeas 5)

Mr. Lawton, you continue to have the floor.

[Andrew Lawton, Conservative, Elgin—St. Thomas—London South, ON]

Well, I know Mr. Lawrence has been itching to weigh in on this, so I'll cede the floor at this time, Madam Chair.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Thank you, Mr. Lawton.

Mr. Lawrence, you have the floor.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

The last line of the subamendment reads “or Canada experiences a prolonged economic downturn.”

Now, in the Prime Minister's Davos speech, he talked about a “rupture” between the U.S. and Canada. He also has yet to achieve a deal on CUSMA, and we are approaching the deadline for the commencement of the review, which is July 1. We, as Conservatives, have worked hard and, as part of team Canada, will support the government to get a deal, which is critical.

I will work back to the impact it has on the CPP—in case my colleagues are curious as to where I'm going with this.

The scale of the shock, if we did not achieve a deal on CUSMA.... As I said, Conservatives are here to support the government in any way to get a deal, because we desperately need one. We're hoping not to have a rupture with the United States, because 73% to 75% of Canadian goods exported go to the United States. Exports to the U.S. represent 20% to 25% of the GDP. That's fully a quarter. Integrated sectors such as autos, energy, agriculture, manufacturing and lumber would face an immediate tariff uncertainty or higher duties if CUSMA lapsed, with a six-month withdrawal notice under the agreement.

The United States is a sovereign country, as are we. There is no overarching body. There is just an agreement between the two parties. Although in the agreement the U.S. requires six months' notice, there is nothing, really, in realpolitik stopping the U.S. if it so chose to have an immediate cessation of access to its markets tariff-free.

Here are some of the things that would happen: There would be sharp short-term GDP contraction, higher unemployment, lower employment earnings and reduced business investment and consumer confidence. The Canadian dollar would be depreciated. There would be supply chain chaos in autos.

Mr. Countryman, have you stress-tested for the impact of a failure of this government to achieve a successful renegotiation or review of the CUSMA?

[Galen Countryman]

It's not for me to do the stress testing. We leave that for the office of the chief actuary to do.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Has the chief actuary taken this into consideration in the report?

[Galen Countryman]

The chief actuary did her analysis as of December 31, 2024. She did not record any subsequent event to that.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

None of the evaluations as they currently stand—whether the 32nd or 33rd—would have taken into account the failure of the continuance of the CUSMA.

[Galen Countryman]

Again, it's the chief actuary who prepares the report. I cannot comment on what she has or has not taken into account.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

I'm quickly doing some math here.

My estimate—with the aid of some artificial intelligence—is that it would push the MCR up to 9.8% or 10.2%, which is well above the contribution rate of 9.5%.

I hope that the government.... I'm sure that Dominic LeBlanc and the team are working hard to get a deal. As I said, Conservatives are completely committed.

This one event, which the Prime Minister predicted would happen when he said it was a “rupture”, would make.... If there's a failure to achieve a deal on CUSMA, the CPP would be unsustainable. Is that not correct?

[Galen Countryman]

I'm not quite sure I understand the question. I think you have a question that's probably best for the chief actuary to answer.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

Okay.

Wouldn't it be good, as per this amendment, to have a report from the chief actuary? Wouldn't Canadians want to know the impacts on the CPP and their retirements if, in fact, this government is unable to deliver a deal on CUSMA?

[Galen Countryman]

Again, that's a question for Parliament to decide.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Mr. Lawrence, Mr. Countryman is here for technical questions and not to provide his opinion.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

I was just trying to get to the math, but I appreciate it. I made my point there.

At this point, I would probably stand down. I hope that the other side has seen the wisdom of the Canadian public.

I'll try again. I don't think this will be successful, Chair, but I'm advised to try again to suspend for question period. It is highly unusual, almost unprecedented, not to have our members attend a question period. Of course, question period dates back to the Westminster system and is our key way of holding the government accountable.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Are you moving a motion to suspend? You didn't move it.

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

I move to suspend for the duration of question period.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Noted. We will take a vote on that.

(Motion negatived: nays 6; yeas 5)

The committee continues.

Go ahead, Mr. Jackson.

[Grant Jackson, Conservative, Brandon—Souris, MB]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

I'm shocked that the members opposite don't want to go to question period. Maybe some of the Prime Minister's habits are rubbing off on them, but I digress. I apologize for that. We will keep focused on CPC-13 and our amendment to try to focus some transparency measures.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Mr. Jackson, we're still on the subamendment. Unless we would like to take a vote, we are still on the subamendment.

[Grant Jackson, Conservative, Brandon—Souris, MB]

I apologize. We are still on the subamendment. That's good.

It is a good subamendment that my colleague Mr. Lawton moved. It is important that we add these provisions into it. The officials have answered. It is unfortunate that the actuary isn't here to answer some of Mr. Lawrence's questions. Nonetheless, it's a good subamendment. I hope the government members will support it.

I'll leave it at that, and we can call the question on the subamendment, Madam Chair, unless there's an intervention from the government.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

Shall subamendment three on CPC-13 carry?

[Philip Lawrence, Conservative, Northumberland—Clarke, ON]

I request a recorded vote, please.

[The Chair, Liberal, Karina Gould]

We'll have a recorded vote.

(Subamendment negatived: nays 6; yeas 4)

Mr. Jackson, we're back on CPC-13 now, just for your information, so you know where we are. I know it's hard to follow.