Thank you for the invitation to discuss Bill C-31 and tax policy as a tool in solving economic problems.
The Canadian Tax Observatory is a new think tank that undertakes research and public engagement towards tax policy that is pro-growth, pro-equality and pro-simplicity, and I don't need to tell you how hard it is to balance those three legs of a stool.
Most of the tax items in Bill C-31 are technical in nature. I'll focus my remarks on a couple of aspects of the bill that we've looked at more closely—delivering automatic federal benefits for low-income individuals, and immediate expensing. They both speak to key priorities for Canadians right now. Automatic filing impacts affordability, and immediate expensing affects productivity.
I'll start with automatic filing.
For many years, the government has signalled its intention to move toward automatic filing for low-income individuals with simple tax situations, so it was a relief to see this measure show up in black and white in the federal budget.
The notice of assessment that the CRA issues taxpayers after filing an income tax return is the golden ticket to many federal programs.
Research done by the Parliamentary Budget Officer suggests, however, that up to $2 billion in federal benefits goes unclaimed every year. Academic studies say about 10% to 12% of adult Canadians do not file an income tax return. We need a deeper appreciation and a more modern update of these numbers and demographics. Especially since there's a growing tendency to deliver social programs and income supports through the tax system, it's imperative that the federal government makes sure the system functions properly and without interruption.
The plan that is established in the budget moves cautiously, perhaps too cautiously, adding elements over a couple of years and then ramping up volumes to reach 5.5 million people in 2029. We can do better than that with the amount of income data that all levels of government already have about their citizens, with modern technology and with the need for government support growing as our economy struggles.
Closer collaboration between the federal and provincial governments is the place to start. If the provinces could share their provincial assistance program data with the federal government, Ottawa would have an excellent list of people who would benefit the most from automatic reporting.
In particular, I need to mention the Canada disability benefit. It started flowing in 2025 to help low-income people with disabilities make ends meet. To qualify, though, you need to file an income tax return, and you need to be certified for the disability tax credit, even if you've already been deemed by the province to have a disability. This is needlessly complicated. Our research shows that 1.2 million people with disabilities live below the poverty line, and only 17% of people who start filling out the digital application for the disability tax credit actually press send.
The application system is riddled with pitfalls that drive away vulnerable people. We have the technology and the data to make things much easier than this. I'd caution that if, somehow, automatic filing becomes the norm, we will still need a human touch in this process. The numerous volunteers, navigators and helpers who bridge government administration and vulnerable people are building the essential bond of trust between a people and its government that technology can't deliver.
I'd like to turn now to immediate expensing. Last fall, when the government announced immediate capital cost allowances for some industries, my initial thought was that it was a decent measure to drive innovation and investment at a time we really needed it, but it was too temporary and too targeted. Fast forward to last month when the Prime Minister announced what he calls the productivity mega deduction, and he's addressed both of those elements. The new measure is permanent and extends to about two-thirds of Canadian business and capital investment.
That's major, and it comes at an important time. The goal is to drive active investment in Canada, boosting productivity, growth and jobs, and we really need all of those things in the face of American protectionism.
It's important to note that companies can't take advantage of this measure without making real investments. They have to invest to take advantage of it.
They can't get something for doing nothing.
Still, we have questions, mainly about which companies won't be able to take advantage of the measures and what kinds of outcomes the federal government projects as a result of the $36-billion move. What happens to companies and investors that are not making a profit right now and don't have tax bills to write down? I'm thinking about start-ups here. What happens to companies and service industries that are often leaders in innovation but don't have the types of material purchases of machinery and equipment that the new measure encourages?
In other words, does the new measure disproportionately favour big, established, capital-intensive companies, especially those involved in manufacturing and goods production, and is that where we really want to push our economy of the future?
The observatory would also like to know more about what would have happened without the mega deduction in terms of modelling. How much of the expected pickup would have happened anyway, and how do we measure how effective the new deduction is?
It's expensive, and it's important. The observatory is hoping to work with you to find those answers.