Fisheries Committee on April 3rd, 2019

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

Yes, you're actually over by 47 seconds. Five minutes don't be long going.

That concludes this portion of our committee meeting. I want to thank our witnesses for appearing today.

Do you want to extend beyond 5:30? Is that the wish of the committee?

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

I haven't had this much fun in a long time, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

That's not what I'm asking.

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

I'm willing to stay.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

I'm asking if it's the will of the committee to extend beyond 5:30.

[Some hon. members]

Agreed.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

Okay. We'll go back to the Liberal side, for five minutes or less.

Mr. Rogers.

[Churence Rogers, Liberal, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, NL]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, guests, for being here.

I just want to focus a little bit on the very comprehensive science program that you have in terms of assessing stocks, as you've outlined in your slides. It looks like a very comprehensive approach and methodology.

Mr. Mullowney, in terms of snow crab, I know you've done a lot of work in the Newfoundland and Labrador region. I hear from residents, fishers and harvesters in my riding that there's a conflict between what they perceive as the state of the stock versus what science is portraying as the state of the stock. For instance, I met with a large group of fisher-people last week, who said that in the Bonavista Bay region there was a 50% increase last year in CPUE ratios or rates in their harvesting period, and they had no issue with being able to meet their quota and catch the resources they were allocated.

What I'm trying to figure out is why there is such a conflict between what harvesters believe the state of the stock is versus what science is telling us.

[Darrell Mullowney]

That's a really good question. I hear that quite frequently too.

There are a couple of points that need to be made. These 50% increases are basically coming from, to generalize, historic lows. They are increases to the second- or third-lowest level that has been seen, that type of idea. These are increases of small numbers, which in absolute terms are not big increases in catch rates.

Another point to make is about the timing of when things happen. The fishery happens at this point in time; a survey happens post-season, and that's the leading information that typically goes into the stock assessment. What we find is that the survey that happens post-season predicts the forthcoming fishery accurately. The fishery that has just happened doesn't really predict the biomass index. There's a lag of the next one coming. We find that our biomass index is quite accurate, pretty much right across the board, at predicting the forthcoming fishery, not so much looking at the hindsight of the one that just happened.

I reiterate that these increases that are being talked about, in these regions in particular, are at very small levels of catch rates, and they are fully consistent with the biomass signals of the low stock.

[Churence Rogers, Liberal, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, NL]

I keep hearing from harvesters who have been on the water for decades that the state of their stock last year was much better than the previous year. What are some of the factors that lead to the results you're getting? What are some of the factors that might be leading to the decline in the biomass?

[Darrell Mullowney]

There has been a long decline in the stock as a whole. Up until a few years ago, the leading information was suggesting that it was a climate-driven process, that warming from about the mid-1990s to the 2000s was dampening the stock productivity. On the stock level as a whole, that was under a regime of light exploitation by the fishery and low top-down control by finfish predation.

Since then, the newest decline you see in the stock reflects that productivity from the climate has actually improved. The waters on the bottom have gotten colder in Newfoundland and Labrador. The productivity potential has actually increased, but the fishery has taken more control. The exploitation rates have increased.

[Churence Rogers, Liberal, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, NL]

Can I ask one more short question? I know time is short.

What credence do people such as yourself, Darrell, and others in the science community give to the advice they receive from harvesters?

[Darrell Mullowney]

On the consultations, the way it goes is that essentially we will give the science update. That's my role as a scientist. The manager asks for the input of the harvesters, what their perspective is. Then it's their job to take the two pieces of information and make management decisions thereafter.

[Churence Rogers, Liberal, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, NL]

Am I done?

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

You have 30 seconds.

You'll be done if you sit still like that.

[Churence Rogers, Liberal, Bonavista—Burin—Trinity, NL]

I just want to ask about environmental factors.

Are warming oceans having some impact on stocks?

[Darrell Mullowney]

On the broad scale, yes, but the Newfoundland and Labrador region is a bit backwards in the broad scale of Atlantic Canada. As I said, the bottom conditions have actually cooled since 2012 and the productivity potential has actually increased for the stock.

[The Chair, Liberal, Ken McDonald]

Thank you, Mr. Rogers.

We'll go back to Mr. Calkins, for five minutes or less, please.

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

If I have any unused time, I'll share it with one of my colleagues, probably Mr. Arnold.

I want to talk a little about the market exposure to China. The information package I have from the Library of Parliament suggests that the Atlantic fishery is exposed to the point of somewhere between 20% and 30% on its products.

Does the department have any information on the current percentage of the market? Can you give us specific details on the exposure of the snow crab and lobster fisheries to the Chinese marketplace?

[David Whorley]

I'd only be speculating. We'll have to undertake to follow up from our trade office on that.

Certainly the largest market for us is still the United States. However, you're absolutely right; we've seen very strong growth in the Chinese market. We've seen some growth in the European market as well. We'd have to undertake to get back to you with details on that.

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

That would be great.

By any chance, do you know of any recipes where crab or lobster are cooked in canola oil?

All kidding aside, I want to ask you a question that is a bit about genetics. Given the fact that the snow crab actually does maximize out on its size, and of course that's the size at which it's harvested, my assumption would be that the genetics of the population wouldn't be affected by harvest size restriction decisions. Could the same be said for lobster?

[Darrell Mullowney]

The truthful answer is that this is an unknown outcome. Both of these animals have a pretty simple genome. They're not terribly complex in the genetics world. The effect of subtle changes would be very hard to detect, probably.

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

Based on the fact that the traps themselves prevent larger animals from getting into the trap or the pot, there would be sufficient genetics of lobsters that can grow to a larger size. Would that be a fair assumption?

[Matthew Hardy]

Yes, that would apply for lobsters, where only a portion of the population is actually harvested. Many of the animals actually make it to a greater size than the size that will enter a trap. As Darrell points out, I'm not aware of any information that would suggest—

[Blaine Calkins, Conservative, Red Deer—Lacombe, AB]

How many big lobsters are there? You see it reported once in a while where somebody's holding up a picture of a lobster the size of a small blue tuna. How frequent are those?