My thanks to the committee for this invitation to appear before you today. I'm the last person standing in a long parade of witnesses you've had today, and most of the things probably have been said already. But I hope in my brief remarks I can raise a few other points.
My remarks are based on encounters with China that I've had over 40-plus years. I've been identified by many, rightly or wrongly, as the principal chronicler of the Canada–China bilateral relationship. I first visited China in 1965 and served in the Canadian embassy in Beijing in the 1970s. I've continued to visit and work in the PRC regularly since then.
In my experience, the contrast with China's past is truly remarkable. I'm not sure I can even express the significance of this. The economic developments are spectacular, the social changes are profound, and, yes, even the political changes are noteworthy. To be clear, however, today's China is an authoritarian society and political system, and the prospects for western-style democracy, in my lifetime if not yours, are slim. So in these remarks I want to address several issues concerning political change in China and our policy toward China. At the end I'll offer some recommendations for policy, for what they are worth.
First, our bilateral relationship has served us well, but it needs urgent adjustment in several areas, not just in human rights and democracy promotion. Aside from democracy and human rights, we need to re-think our long-term trade and investment strategy because we have problems there; make some hard decisions about continuing our development assistance funding, in what form and by whom; come to terms with the fundamental disconnect we have in consular matters--that's the Celil case; and tighten up our immigration procedures.
Second, the Chinese political system is changing, and it's changing incrementally if not dramatically. The party is more transparent, educated, professional, attuned to the outside world, and more democratic internally. This is based on my experience training 2,500 party officials in western management and other areas these past eight years in Toronto. There has also been progress in the development of state institutions and law. For example, the National People's Congress, formerly a moribund legislature, is now holding public hearings based on proposed legislation. It has acquired a larger role in the political system, and its work has become more transparent.
A decade ago I wrote that civil society in China was emerging, but was “state led”. Now we see budding grassroots civil society in the big city neighbourhoods, as property owners unite to use new-found laws against developers, against housing management officers, and corrupt local officials.
Of recent interest is something called strolling--like walking--in Shanghai. Thousands of residents recently took to the streets and silently walked about for hours in a successful protest of government policy. There are 75 million blogs today in China, and you cannot shut down all of them all the time. China now has 100 million religious observers, which is a significant religious revolution even if there are some limitations.
Is the glass half full or half empty? Those who see ongoing entrenched despotism, that is human rights abuses—Tibetans, Uighurs, etc.—opt for the empty glass. Those who recognize that it took us hundreds of years to attain democracy are somewhat more optimistic. For me, the glass is half full.
Third, the party is in control. The majority of Chinese citizens accept its leadership. Don't expect a Soviet-type collapse of the Communist Party. I lived in the Soviet Union in the 1980s when the Soviet party collapsed, so I have some sense of the differences here. Today's 73-million-member party is stronger than ever. Its legitimacy is secured by a big trade-off it has made with the citizens. Keep delivering the economic goods and we'll leave governance to you. Chinese public opinion polls confirm this support. The 200-million new middle class likes it. The mantra is stability, and the reminder is what happened to the Soviet Union in 1990. The party, yes, has its weaknesses, especially at the local level, in the rural areas where official corruption is substantial.
Fourth, hard diplomacy by other countries—linkage, sanctions, blockades, megaphone politics—has been ineffectual in changing China's human rights agenda.
In 1989, China did not budge after we condemned them and asked Beijing to apologize. Not for us or for any of the other countries that sanctioned them did they do this. The Americans, more aggressive than Canada on human rights, have strongly and repeatedly condemned China's record for years. However, in truth, we cannot document any lasting concrete changes resulting from that American policy. Confrontation has not produced discernible positive change. In my view, dialogue is the better option. It trumps isolation and confrontation every time.
Fifth, China's huge population, long history, isolation, and authoritarian political culture make it unlikely that China's political values, institutions, and practices can quickly change. For us, democracy and human rights are universal values. Our focus on the individual, the basis of our democracy, on his or her rights, ownership of property, protection by rule of law, representative institutions, and accountability of officials are the logical outcome of our history. That is what we celebrate. China needs a lot of catching up before it is ready to celebrate western values and develop the democratic institutions to sustain them. In the short term, we may have to live with an authoritarian global economic power that is moving vaguely in the direction of political pluralism, if not democracy.
I have some policy recommendations to suggest here.
First, re-establish the bilateral rights dialogue, but in a different format. Open up the process to provide broader participation by Canadian stakeholders. The process has been narrowly confined to a few bureaucrats and a few organizations at the upper levels of government. Find Chinese interlocutors who have a more direct stake in the democratization process when you do this. Learn from the Americans, who are about to resume their human rights dialogue in Beijing; I think they actually resumed it yesterday. Find out what they're doing. Why are they doing it again, and what are they doing?
Second, support the creation of a democracy foundation--which is something that came out of this committee or subcommittee last year--but with several caveats. I note the high cost, the danger of centralizing and bureaucratizing this enterprise, the long lead-in time before this foundation can be effective, the ambitious scale, and the substantial use of public funds. These are all serious concerns. What leading role can a latecomer like Canada play here? Isn't this a bit of hubris on our part? The National Endowment for Democracy, which is an American democracy foundation, was created 25 years ago. Realistically, what can we do that all the others, with budgets currently in the billions, haven't been doing for 20 or more years?
Third, organize, consolidate, and expand our human rights, rule of law, and governance projects currently carried out in China by CIDA, IDRC, DFAIT, etc. These are low-cost programs focused on human resource training and institutional development. Here are some examples of projects: working with the Central Party School to improve environmental management; working on the five-year program to develop China's legislative capacity at the national and provincial levels; providing legal training for judges; establishing legal aid clinics--we've heard about those--and exposing senior Chinese public servants to Canadian management experience.
Fourth, expand participation from the Canadian civil society sector and be more inclusive. That was one of the main recommendations of the report of July 2007 to this committee. Some suggestions: organize an annual series of two to three one-week cross-Canada leadership seminars with young Chinese leaders and their Canadian counterparts to expose them to Canadian life and values. The Draeger-Stiftung has done this for eastern Europe for the last 20 years.
Now that religious practice is becoming more acceptable in China, we should promote more active interchange between Chinese and Canadian counterparts. One promising area is in charity work. Taiwanese religious organizations have established a good cooperative relationship in this area.
Develop cooperation between Canadian and Chinese media. In our programs at York University we have worked with CCTV, Beijing TV, Chongqing television and newspapers, and the Chengdu media. They in turn have established links with Canadian media organizations.
One delicate area is the inclusion of advocacy groups that violently oppose the Chinese government. The challenge will be how to incorporate their activities within a framework that seeks positive engagement rather than confrontation.
Fifth, develop links in the ethnic-multicultural area. Given Canada's experience with its own ethnic minorities and our ongoing multicultural policies, why not encourage the exchange of Canadian and Chinese views on cultural autonomy? We have had a program of this type between our first nations and Taiwan aboriginals for several years. I floated this today--just before I came here--to the Chinese embassy. I mentioned Tibet, and they were not too supportive of this idea, but at least they listened to me.
Sixth, focus on democracy building first. First focus on democracy, then on human rights. Democracy provides the context--rule of law, institution building, and good governance practices--for the subsequent attainment of human rights. You can't have human rights if you don't have a functioning rule of law system.
Developing democracy and human rights is a holistic experience. Make the creation of a democracy infrastructure the primary goal, with human rights the beneficiary. And remember, there are no miracles to be found here.
Thank you.