Thank you very much. Thank you for inviting me to speak and for allowing me to do so by video conference today. By staying in Vancouver, I'm able to address another even more intimidating audience later this afternoon in the form of 150 undergraduate students.
The issue of Canada-U.S. relations is very close to my heart. My two children were born in Durham, North Carolina, where I was a professor of international law and the director of the Center for Canadian Studies at Duke University. They are, as a result, U.S. citizens, and I hope they will serve both their countries well.
Barack Obama clearly cares about Canada-U.S. relations too, having said “I love this country” during his recent visit to Ottawa. I believe the straightforward expression of affection is rooted not just in President Obama's family connections but also in his awareness of the historically important role of Canada as the terminus of the underground railroad; as a long-time proponent of human rights, international law, and multilateral diplomacy; and as a model of successful multiculturalism and universal public health care.
I also believe the comment indicates awareness on President Obama's part of just how important Canada could be to achieving his economic, environmental, and foreign policy goals.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has placed smart power at the centre of the Obama administration's foreign policy. According to this approach, influences derive from many factors, including diplomacy, cooperation, a good reputation, and economic vitality. And smart power plays to Canada's strengths, which are truly multi-faceted.
Geographically, we are the second largest country in the world. We have the eighth largest economy. We are the United States' largest trading partner. We have a population of 33 million well-educated, globally connected people. Our military is small but highly competent. Our foreign service is among the very best. Seen through the lens of smart power, Canada has considerable potential influence that could and should be exercised on behalf of our own citizens, the international community, and, on issues of common cause, the United States.
Afghanistan is clearly an issue of common cause. The Canadian Forces have suffered the highest casualty rate per soldier of all the allied troops in that country. The deaths, injuries, and other demands of the mission have prompted retired Major-General Lewis MacKenzie to conclude that “Canada will not be capable of remaining in Afghanistan in a combat role beyond 2011”.
Fortunately, President Obama is already applying the concept of smart power to Afghanistan. The appointment of Richard Holbrooke as his envoy is a clear indication of just how important the diplomatic angle has become. And while President Obama is increasing the number of troops in Afghanistan, he is actually cutting, by around 100,000, the number of U.S. soldiers deployed abroad. The end result is that Canadian soldiers are less needed than they might have been before.
Consistent with the concept of smart power, we can and should offer to contribute in other ways. Our diplomats could help negotiate with tribal and insurgent leaders as well as with regional actors, such as Iran, India, and Pakistan. CIDA could provide more reconstruction assistance. The RCMP could do more to assist in the training of Afghan police.
All indications are that the Obama administration has made the same calculation and that pressure will not be applied to keep Canadian soldiers in a combat role in Afghanistan after 2011. So there is no reason whatsoever to even consider another extension.
On the economy, President Obama is demonstrating extraordinary leadership in addressing the global economic crisis, but I believe that he's looking for more international support for his economic stimulus and almost certainly for much more from Canada.
According to the parliamentary budget officer, the net effect of Canada's stimulus plan is equivalent to just 0.7% of GDP, which is just one-quarter of President Obama's package and less than half of the stimulus recommended by the International Monetary Fund.
The Great Depression led to the creation of the World Bank, the IMF, and GATT. The current crisis is likely to generate similar international institutional reforms, including mechanisms for regulating banks, stock exchanges, and currency speculators. Canada could play a major role here developing and circulating concrete proposals that could then be used as the basis for collective decision-making.
Canada could also seize on President Obama's declared intent to bring labour and environmental standards into the main body of NAFTA. Such changes would work to this country's comparative advantage since we already have relatively robust standards, and particularly so if the practice of including such standards spreads to other trade agreements, such as the WTO.
The environment is a key economic issue, because the environment is the foundation on which all human activity takes place.
Sir Nicholas Stern made the point in his report on climate change to then British Prime Minister Tony Blair, that every dollar spent on mitigating climate change now will save $20 of expenditure in 2050. President Obama understands this. Shortly after his election, he confirmed that the United States would “help lead the world towards a new era of global co-operation on climate change. Now,” he said, “is the time to confront this challenge once and for all. Delay is no longer an option. Denial is no longer an acceptable response. The stakes are too high, the consequences too serious.”
At the same time, every crisis creates opportunity; in this case, to move through the next industrial revolution into a new economy based on non-hydrocarbon sources of energy. It is hugely significant that President Obama has appointed Steven Chu, the Nobel-prize-winning physicist, as his Secretary of Energy.
The tide has changed, and Canada, I'm afraid, risks being left high and dry. Already we're seeing a profound shift in public opinion in the United States. This month's issue of National Geographic is only part of that. And so the question is, are we willing to lead together on climate change, or will Canada condemn itself to reluctantly and eventually follow?
The Arctic, my final issue, is not a priority for the Obama administration because it knows that international cooperation there is already well advanced. Last May, the five Arctic Ocean countries--Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States--collectively affirmed their commitment to the Law of the Sea and the “orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims”.
And with all respect, the Canadian government does everyone a disservice by feeding the media interest in conflict stories, such as the comments last week after two Russian bombers exercised the right that every country has to fly in international airspace.
It's important to remember that as recently as November 2007 Prime Minister Harper and the Russian Prime Minister issued a joint statement on cooperation in the Arctic. And since then, Canadian and Russian diplomats and scientists have been working together as both countries exercise their unchallenged rights to define the outer limits of their extended continental shelves under the Arctic Ocean.
Canada is also cooperating closely with the United States in the Arctic. In 1988 we established procedures for coast guard icebreaker transits through the Northwest Passage and declared them to be “without prejudice to the legal dispute”. Three years ago we expanded the NORAD agreement to include joint maritime surveillance over the Northwest Passage, and the two countries have been jointly mapping the floor of the Beaufort Sea, using U.S. and Canadian icebreakers.
In the one minute I have left, let me just say that there's much more that could be done. Canada could, and should, follow the lead of the United States in making public all of the data being gathered by its scientists concerning the extended continental shelf to ensure that common data sets are used by countries with potential overlapping claims, and we should also be engaging the United States on the Northwest Passage before the increasing traffic causes a diplomatic crisis.
One year ago, former U.S. ambassador Paul Cellucci and I demonstrated that negotiations could be quite fruitful. In a day and a half of mock negotiations, our two teams of non-government experts identified nine concrete ways in which the two countries could cooperate and build confidence in the Northwest Passage. Similar negotiations could also lead to a mutually agreeable resolution to the maritime boundary dispute in the Beaufort Sea.
Although for decades the relationship between Canada and the United States has been understood as involving a degree of dependence or even subservience, the economic and environmental crises have changed much of that. To his great credit, President Obama is showing international leadership. This is no time for celebration, however, for the same crises have created immense shared perils that require our two countries to work together regardless of whether we need each other as much as we might have before. I believe the United States needs Canada desperately today, and I hope very much that you will recommend we do all that we can.
Thank you.