Foreign Affairs Committee on Oct. 16th, 2012

[Mark Bailey]

I'll let my colleague from CIDA respond.

[Leslie Norton, Director General, International Humanitarian Assistance Directorate, Canadian International Development Agency]

The assistance we are providing to UN agencies such as the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees and the World Food Programme is in the form of money. Those organizations are now in a position to address the needs of refugees in Turkish and Jordanian territory.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you very much.

Mr. Dechert, you have seven minutes.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Mr. Bailey and Ms. Norton, thank you very much for being here and for providing us with this important briefing.

You paint a very grim picture of what's going on in Syria today and of the near-term future of Syria.

As you know, Canada is home to a very large Syrian Canadian population. I and many other members of Parliament have met continuously with members of the Syrian Canadian community over the last year, including just last week. When I was back in my constituency, I had a long meeting with a group of Syrian Canadians who, first of all, were telling us about some of the very grim things that are happening to their relatives and friends in Syria. They also wanted to know how they can get involved to support refugees and to assist remotely, in any way, the rebellion movement.

My sense, and I think you confirmed this in your remarks today, is that the opposition there is quite fragmented. I wonder if you could describe that in a little more detail. Who are the actual actors who are fighting the Assad regime? And how is it different from what happened in Libya a year or more ago?

[Mark Bailey]

I'm not a great expert on Libya, but my understanding is that in that case, you had a relatively unified opposition to the Gadhafi regime, centred in Benghazi, under the umbrella of the TNC, the Transitional National Council. There is no such umbrella body in the case of Syria. There is one that sort of tries to be that, the Syrian National Council, but it has not succeeded. And indeed, it is contested. Others have not accepted its overall leadership, and indeed, some are quite critical of the group.

In addition, and this is a problem that was there initially and has gotten worse over time, there seems to be a rather serious disconnect between those elements of the opposition that are in exile and living abroad outside Syria—they tend to be in Turkey, Egypt, or Europe, and various places here in Canada and the United States—and those who are actually leading the opposition inside the country, who do not accept, acknowledge, or recognize themselves in this exile leadership. They, indeed, don't agree with a lot of what the exile leadership has to say. They do not accept their directives and so on.

Those inside the country, we also know, are quite divided. There are those I guess one would call the free Syrian army, which is not a unified army at all. It's not a unified force. It doesn't have a centralized command and control. Frankly, it's a brand different militias have adopted to describe themselves or give themselves a name. Then, as I said, we're also aware of various quite militant, quite Islamic, radical groups, some of which have carried out these spectacular bombings you've seen. Although they will collaborate with free Syrian army units, certainly they don't accept their direction or leadership or anything like that. It's quite the contrary; it's clear that they are receiving funding as well as ideological guidance from outside the country.

You're absolutely right, sir. It's an extremely fragmented and troubling picture, and it creates difficulties for those who wish to help. They don't know who to back and how to channel assistance in a way that doesn't end up making the situation worse or that doesn't promote an outcome that will actually be quite contrary to our interests and to stability and prosperity in Syria and the region.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

We certainly hope that the opposition forces can come up with some kind of credible alternative government to the Assad regime that the western world, the rest of the world, could support. That would certainly be helpful.

You mentioned in your remarks the spillover of violence into neighbouring countries. You mentioned Lebanon, and specifically Hezbollah. I met with a member of Parliament from Lebanon recently who told me that he has evidence that Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon, funded by Iran, have been fighting in Syria for the Assad regime. We're trying to get him to appear before this committee later this week. Are you aware of those reports?

[Mark Bailey]

Yes, sir.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Can you confirm that?

[Mark Bailey]

The U.S. Secretary of State was citing them just yesterday or the day before, I recall seeing.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

Does that change the nature of the conflict in Syria, and could you elaborate a little further and tell us what role you think Iran is playing in Syria?

[Mark Bailey]

Iran is playing an extremely unhelpful role, and I would go so far as to say a conflict-provoking or conflict-enduring role in Syria. There's no doubt that they see the Assad regime as their key ally in the region, and that the crumbling of this regime would be regarded by Iran as a very significant setback, a real blow to their interests. Therefore, they've doubled down. They're putting everything they've got into trying to help Assad and his regime survive, including working with the other partner in that chain of influence and resistance, as they call it, Hezbollah.

Indeed, we are aware of these reports that you cite. They're in the media. Of course, we also see it in some of the intelligence sources that are available to us. Indeed, Hezbollah fighters and Hezbollah leadership are actively supporting the Assad regime. There have been reports that Hezbollah fighters have been killed. Some of them have been captured, and so on. They are certainly making the problem much worse from our point of view.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

The UN Security Council, as you've mentioned, is paralyzed. Is that primarily because of Russia's veto?

[Mark Bailey]

Yes. Well, China is also exercising the veto there, but in our view, the main actor, the one who sees its interests engaged, is Russia. Our view would be that if Russia's position were to change, perhaps we would see a change in China. Obviously you'd have to ask their representatives, but that would be our thinking about it.

[Bob Dechert, Conservative, Mississauga—Erindale, ON]

What should Canada and the rest of the world that wants to see an end to the violence in Syria do? What should it be considering in terms of Russia in order to encourage Russia to change its stand?

[Mark Bailey]

We have to persuade the Russian government that its interests are not being served by what's going on in Syria, and indeed that it is placing Russian interests in severe jeopardy by continuing to promote this instability in conflict, and that the eventual outcome will actually be a much bigger catastrophe for Russian interests than the preservation of the regime.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

That's all the time we have. Thank you very much.

We're now going to move to the last person in this round, Mr. Cotler.

Welcome, sir. You have seven minutes.

[Irwin Cotler, Liberal, Mount Royal, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

Thank you for your comprehensive statement, Mr. Bailey.

You mentioned in the conclusion of your remarks that Canada remains actively engaged in efforts to assist the Syrian people in their struggle for their democratic rights. You earlier commented—and rightly so—on the resilience of the Syrian people, and that's something that I appreciated in my own visits there. As you say, the conflict is likely to be long and fraught with difficulties.

I'd like to address three particular initiatives that the Canadian government has been engaged in, in accordance with your remarks and the follow-up on those.

The first is your saying that Canada is committed to helping the non-violent Syrian opposition to gain the skills and resources to achieve a free and democratic Syria. To that effect, there was a $1 million announcement for pro-democracy initiatives on April 1. You then made the point that we are considering additional projects to support the Syrian opposition, both inside and outside of Syria, to help prepare for a post-Assad transition.

What are some of these projects that you're considering when you speak of the opposition to Assad in this particular frame here, as if there is a kind of central opposition? As you otherwise comment, this opposition is fragmented, etc. To what extent are we assisting in the organizing of a coherent and evolving democratic opposition to Assad? That's the first.

The second is on the humanitarian needs. You made reference to humanitarian assistance. As we know, there's been an exponential increase in the number of refugees and there's been an exponential increase in the number of internally displaced people. The UN has put it at 1.5 million, and a larger number of 2.5 million in terms of those more or less affected. What is Canada's contribution beyond the $12 million to which you referred in that regard?

The third thing is the concern in terms of the regional fallout of events. You mentioned that as well, the impact on Syria's neighbours. I'm particularly concerned here about the situation in Jordan, because of the instability that's been developing in Jordan, and its connection to the whole question of protection against chemical weapons risks.

Those are the three issues.

[Mark Bailey]

Well, indeed, as you will understand, Mr. Cotler, I'm obviously not going to scoop my own minister and announce projects before they've been approved by him. What I can say is that my colleagues in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have actively worked up some project proposals, which are on the minister's desk now. As soon as he has considered and approved them, they will be announced.

Going back to what I said a bit earlier, we have provided assistance to the Jordanian forces to help them physically cope with this inflow of refugees.

Indeed, I would go so far as to say that perhaps more of that is being considered in light of these larger numbers—the 700,000 number that I mentioned. This is prompting consideration of additional assistance to Jordan.

We're also looking as well at ways of helping Syrians inside Syria. The French, quite frankly, have been taking a lead in this regard. Projects that would help those people in the parts of Syria that are not under the control of the regime are also being considered. As I said, when the minister has considered these things and approved them, I'm sure announcements will be made in due course as to exactly what they are.

We're also looking at ways to assist the other regional countries as well, and projects are being worked up in that regard.

I'll let my colleague address the issue on humanitarian needs, and I'll turn now to the chemical weapons issue, which I can assure you is a very, very high concern for the government. Minister Baird, in particular, has made it clear that he wants a great deal of effort and focus addressed to this issue.

We're in consultation with our close friends and allies on possible measures that need to be put in place. In the event, for example, there is one of those catastrophic scenarios that I described in my opening remarks whereby somehow the regime loses control of one of the depots where they have this dreadful stuff stored, well then obviously one would want to see action taken quickly to ensure that control of those stocks is regained, and hopefully in due course they are destroyed.

As I say, we're in consultations with our closest allies about this now, and as I've mentioned as well, we've already decided to provide.... We're looking at some assistance to the Jordanians to cope with what might be coming their way in that regard.

I think I'll stop there and invite my colleague to address your second question about humanitarian needs and refugees.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Ms. Norton, sorry, you have about 45 seconds.

[Leslie Norton]

Thank you. I'll be quick then.

Canada has been systematically responding to meeting the humanitarian needs of the Syrians who are affected by the conflict.

We started back in 2011 when there was a spike in the violence, and since then, as our partners have revised their appeals, we have been systematically responding to the revised appeals.

In August, we provided more assistance to the World Food Programme when they let us know that the needs had been increased with regard to food assistance.

Most recently, you might recall, there was an announcement about medical assistance in the form of cash for the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies. Even more recently, the UNHCR has revised its Syrian regional response plan for the Syrian refugees.

Once we receive these revised appeals, we basically study these appeals and make recommendations. You will see that as the appeals have been revised, there has been a systematic response by the Government of Canada.

[Irwin Cotler, Liberal, Mount Royal, QC]

They've announced the fact that the appeals have only been funded up to the 30% of the requests made by the UN.

[Leslie Norton]

Yes, that's a good point. But you have to keep in mind that these are appeals about needs that they anticipate. They don't currently have 700,000 refugees to respond to; they're anticipating that by the end of 2012 they will have that many. Right now they have 40% of the required needs, and based on access and trends, they anticipate 700,000 by the end of 2012.

Donors are keeping up in responding systemically. Yes, there are needs that perhaps could be met additionally, but the needs do continue to be met.

I was in Geneva two weeks ago to meet with UNHCR, and they said they are doing quite well with the response for the Syrian refugees.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you very much.

We're now going to move into round two, which will be five minutes, and I'm going to turn it over to Ms. Brown.

[Lois Brown, Conservative, Newmarket—Aurora, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair, and my thanks to both of you for being with us today. It's been most helpful in giving us some perspective on the situation.

I have a question for each of you.

Ms. Norton, I will start with you and ask if you could talk to the committee about what access is there for getting humanitarian assistance into Syria. Have we had cooperation from the Assad regime, or are they putting up barriers to allowing our partners to get in there and get to the people who are in need?

Mr. Bailey, I wonder if you could comment on the most recent developments with Turkey and what we've seen happen in the past few days, with the escalating situation there.

[Mark Bailey]

Let me address the question about Turkey, and then I'll turn it over to Leslie.

Turkey has been extremely concerned from the very beginning about what's going on in Syria. You may recall that in the early stages of the conflict they made pretty significant efforts to persuade Bashar al-Assad to accommodate the opposition, to introduce reforms, and to start loosening up things. Instead of following their advice, Bashar and his regime responded with violence. This then caused the Turks to turn against the regime and start calling for Bashar's replacement.

We don't have the fullest detailed information about this shelling, the incident that happened down on the border. It's not clear, for example, that the shells that were fired from the Syrian side and landed in Turkey, in that one tragic incident, killing five people in the village of Akçakale...it's not clear that that was done deliberately by the Syrian forces. It may simply reflect poor training, poor competence levels on the part of the Syrian forces that were engaged in the military action.

The Turks have made it clear that they will not stand for this and will indeed respond quite vigorously. In fact, I think they've announced that for every one shell that comes in, they're going to fire two back to try to deter the Syrian forces, to force them to be careful about what they're doing and not direct their fire towards the Turkish border. The Turks have moved aircraft down towards the border, as well as army units, all of this in a show of force to the Syrians to be very careful with what they're doing.

I think it's fair to say that both sides understand that it's very much in their interests to avoid a greater conflict between the two countries. This could end up being quite damaging for the Turkish armed forces. They're already engaged in combat with the PKK guerrillas. Fighting with the Syrians as well would expose them to a two-front kind of war. That would be quite unpopular, and the Turks want to avoid it. At the same time, they have to deter the Syrians from these kinds of careless actions.

Leslie, I'll let you address the first question.