Evidence of meeting #15 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 41st Parliament, 2nd session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was crimea.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
I don't think that the government will order the troops to fire on the Russian troops, but I honestly don't know the answer. Ukraine's strategy is not to react to these provocations and avoid giving Russia any reason to say suddenly that the situation has turned into war or violence.
I really can't answer your question. I don't know what will happen at 5 o'clock tomorrow morning. Things are at an extremely critical point. I am sorry, but I cannot see the future.
NDP
Alexandrine Latendresse NDP Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC
I would first like to thank you for your presentation here today. These events are of great concern to all of us, and it is good to have a little more information. One can never have too much information when situations such as this one occur.
My questions are somewhat along the same lines. They are about the elections planned for May.
How likely do you think it is, given the immediate situation, that the proposed elections will take place?
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
If Russia were to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, that timetable would be out the window. Everything would shift.
Let us suppose that Russian intervention stops with the Crimea. In passing, that is already a huge international problem, because it is still a violation of Ukraine's borders. But given that scenario, it might still be possible to hold elections. If so, the impact of a Russian military presence in the Crimea on the rest of Ukraine might surprise Mr. Putin. He clearly does not understand election dynamics, since he said at the time of the last elections that he hoped that there would be no second round. In any case, there weren't really any strong candidates, because they were all out of the running. A second round is destabilizing for Russian society; competition is destabilizing in itself. That said, the result might still be surprising.
We know that Ms. Timochenko and Mr. Klitschko have already announced their intentions. This is new territory. But I have the impression that Mr. Klitschko could, for the first time, unite eastern and western Ukraine, since he is a Russian-speaker himself and he has a strong reputation outside politics around the country. Moreover, rather shockingly, the last polls on voting intentions before the Maidan killings two weeks ago indicated that Mr. Klitschko would garner 60% to 65 % support against Mr. Yanukovych in the second round. That means that he could get nearly half of the votes in eastern Ukraine. That is very positive. No candidate has ever been able to obtain a majority in both parts of the country. Generally speaking, if a candidate received a huge majority in one part and a few votes in the other part, he would end up with a majority, but a very slim one.
Do you want to add something?
Research Associate, University of Alberta, Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies
No. There may be other questions.
NDP
Alexandrine Latendresse NDP Louis-Saint-Laurent, QC
The OECD announced today that it would be sending 900 short-term observers and 100 long-term observers.
What do you think Canada could do to help if elections are held? To what extent could Canada take part as an observer on the ground?
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
I think that there were already some quite remarkable precedents during the orange revolution. Canada sent 500 official observers and the Canadian Ukrainian Congress sent another contingent of 500 observers. A very large contingent would be needed.
That said, if elections were organized by the current government, I would be much less concerned about possible fraud. For the purposes of international legitimacy, however, a very large number of observers would be a good idea.
I would like to mention something for just 10 seconds in answer to the member's question. I am continually being interviewed on television these days and I am often asked what Canada can do. My answer is that Canada, thanks to its Ukrainian community, has acquired expertise that is unique in the world. The Ukrainian community here has a strong voice because of its historic role and its voting influence, which is significant at this point. There are members of the Ukrainian community working for NGOs, for the public service and the government, to mention just a few areas. Moreover, Canadians who are not of Ukrainian background have also acquired expertise because of that privileged relationship between Canada and Ukraine. I am not talking just about myself and the academic world, but in other sectors as well. Expertise has been developed that is unique in the world outside Ukraine. So Canada should make use of that expertise and that critical mass.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
Thank you very much.
We're going to finish off with Mr. Anderson.
You have five minutes, sir.
Conservative
David Anderson Conservative Cypress Hills—Grasslands, SK
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I want to thank our guests for being here today.
I have a couple of questions, so if I cut you off I don't want you to think I'm rude. It's because we have very limited time here.
We've been involved in this issue from the beginning, as a country, and it's important that we are. I'm wondering if you can give us a little bit of information and your feelings on what role the United States has to play in order for this to be effectively dealt with.
Research Associate, University of Alberta, Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies
I think the U.S. is key because in the mentality of the people from that region of the world, including ex-president Yanukovych, they never respected—and I don't think Putin does either—the European Union as a foreign policy actor. It's too diverse with too many countries trying to make a decision. Whereas, they did always fear the U.S.
I said to the U.S. ambassador in December in Kiev that the U.S. needs to lead on sanctions, and in the end they did. The U.S. is also obviously a key actor in NATO and in the IMF. I think from all of those points and in terms also of providing assistance through a variety of pro-democracy foundations, the U.S. in that sense is key.
When there have been sanctions, for example against Belarus, it's always the U.S and Canada first, then it's always the EU following on afterwards, very reluctantly and very slowly. I think the U.S. has to take the lead and this is what it did on this occasion.
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
I would second that.
Conservative
David Anderson Conservative Cypress Hills—Grasslands, SK
The second question I have is about the makeup of the Ukrainian government. You have a mixture of political leaders and a mixture of people who are from outside the government.
I wonder if you can talk a little bit about the political strength that's actually there, if they have to face the kinds of things that you're talking about over the next few weeks. Tell me a bit about your perception of the strength of the government of Ukraine itself.
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
My understanding is that obviously it's a very young government, but looking at the makeup you have people with government experience—the prime minister, the foreign minister, and speaker of parliament, to give one of several examples. Then you have an infusion of new blood, particularly in the economic sphere. I mentioned the folks coming out of the Mohyla university. That's important because of course Ukraine, in terms of economic reforms, has not exactly been a success story. This may actually mean now that there is a new generation to do the difficult reforms. They find themselves in very dire straits, as we know. Then there is a third category, which is, I would say, almost unprecedented for an advanced industrialized country. You have, literally, activists straight out of Maidan who are either officially in the cabinet or in the government with an important role.
You have a muckraking journalist who is in charge of the anti-corruption bureau, and another journalist—both from Maidan—who is in charge of what they call the lustration policy. Lustration means that people who committed crimes before, either literally crimes of being involved in shooting civilians or economic crimes and corruption, should no longer be allowed to have government functions.
There are a number of other activists. The fellow who was captured and tortured, Bulatov, who led the automobile resistance out of Maidan, is also a minister.
It may sound a bit far-fetched to us, but there is a clear sense from the Maidan demonstrators that this is not business as usual. I'm not talking about the Russian invasion here, just the change of regime. It's not changing a government. It's changing the way they conduct politics, and the demonstrators mean it and they will be watching. The government is accountable to them. Almost symbolically, the government had to first submit the list of cabinet ministers to Maidan for popular approval. There was one change apparently; one fellow was added.
That kind of civic engagement, which I think is very important—
Research Associate, University of Alberta, Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies
Accountability.
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
Yes, accountability. There could be all kinds of grey areas, such as what lustration will actually mean.
Conservative
David Anderson Conservative Cypress Hills—Grasslands, SK
What strength does that give in a time like this?
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
Popular support that this is really a government that speaks to the people, without any illusion. As I said, some people have experience, which might be a good thing, but from the point of view of the demonstrators it may be a bad thing, because they don't want experienced people to repeat what they've done before, even if they are on their side. There is that kind of civic engagement, which is actually something that in western democracies and Canada often seems to be lacking. That's what we hear in public debates, that we need a more engaged democracy and not just elections every four years.
It's very positive, I think, but unusual. We'll see how the experiment goes. Of course, now we're dealing with a war situation.
Conservative
NDP
Wayne Marston NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
As quick as I can make it.... The Russians have just signed recently an agreement in Crimea to have their military and navy bases there until 2042, and you made the statement a few minutes ago, and this is troubling me, about Putin being embarrassed, and also the second statement of not being in the real world. My concern is that if this isn't resolved quickly, we could very well wind up with that area partitioned.
What are your thoughts on that?
Chairholder, Associate Professor, University of Ottawa, Chair of Ukrainian Studies
I'm very worried because.... Again, I'm not here to speak in hyperboles, but we may be reliving some kind of 1930s here. We have an absolutely unaccountable, absolute power president who lives in his own world and has the means and the media to somehow raise an entire class to do things that we never thought would be possible, such as attempting to destroy a country.
NDP
Wayne Marston NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, ON
We thought we were past that. The relationships with Russia have been such, for a reasonable amount of time, so that certain reason seemed to be present, but now it's a step back many years.
Thank you.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
Gentlemen, thank you very much for taking the time to be here. We appreciate it.
We'll suspend just for one second so we can get our next group of witnesses up and we'll come back.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
Good afternoon, and thanks to our witnesses for being here for the second hour.
From the Ukrainian World Congress, we have Eugene Czolij, the president. Thank you very much for being here.
We also have, as an individual, Father Ihor. Is that okay? We'll call you Father. How's that sound?
Father Ihor Okhrimtchouk Parish Priest, Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Canada, As an Individual
That's perfect.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Dean Allison
Unless someone else wants to attempt your last name....
Why don't we just start, Eugene, with your opening remarks, and then we'll move over to Father Ihor?
Eugene Czolij President, Ukrainian World Congress
Thank you.
Mr. Chairman and members of the committee, my name is Eugene Czolij, and I would like to thank you for the opportunity to address today the Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs on the situation in Ukraine.
For the record, I'm the president of the Ukrainian World Congress, the international coordinating body for Ukrainian communities that was founded in 1967 and represents the interests of over 20 million Ukrainians living outside of Ukraine. The Ukrainian World Congress has member organizations in 33 countries, including the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, and ties with Ukrainians in 14 additional countries.
On behalf of the Ukrainian World Congress, I would like first to express our gratitude to the Government of Canada for its unequivocal support of the citizens of Ukraine and their aspirations for freedom, democracy, and fundamental values.
On November 21, 2013, Viktor Yanukovych turned his back on the European Union, in total disregard of the will of the Ukrainian people, by refusing to sign the EU-Ukraine association agreement. Since then, the world has witnessed an unprecedented chain of events that has demonstrated the strength, courage, determination, and unwavering resolve of the Ukrainian people. Ukrainians in Ukraine and around the world, including here in Canada, peacefully protested in Euromaidans, urging Ukraine's governing authorities to move forward towards Europe and not backward to a neo-Soviet Union.
The response from Ukraine's authorities was a crackdown. Protesters were detained, kidnapped, beaten, and killed. Even journalists and medical volunteers became targets. Amazingly, Ukrainians stood their ground.
On February 18, 2014, when Ukraine's governing authorities sent snipers to shoot at their own people using live ammunition, they forever lost any remaining legitimacy. This was the turning point that ultimately brought down a highly corrupt and authoritarian regime in Ukraine. Sadly, in this struggle for democracy, almost 100 Ukrainians made the ultimate sacrifice, and a substantial number sustained severe and life-changing injuries.
As Canadians who cherish democracy, we can honour the memory of these modern-day heroes by supporting the new government in Ukraine in its daunting challenge of restoring stability and implementing the necessary reforms to re-establish Ukraine as a fully democratic modern European state.
Having barely buried its heroes, Ukraine is facing another crisis orchestrated by a blatantly imperialistic Russian president, who described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, and who desperately tried to recreate it under the guise of a Euro-Asian union of former Soviet republics, including Ukraine, only to see the Euromaidan put an end to his geopolitical plans.
On February 28, 2014, two days after the Crimean parliament refused to consider any proposed separatist initiatives, Russia invaded Crimea. Pro-Russian groups backed by Moscow have been deliberately trying to provoke violent confrontation in several major centres in southern and eastern Ukraine to broaden their military invasion.
The very next day, the Russian Federation Council unanimously ratified the following appeal by the President of Russia, so as to provide a legal justification for a Soviet-style military intervention in Ukraine. I quote:
Due to the extraordinary situation that has taken shape in Ukraine and the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of our Armed Forces of the Russian Federation who are deployed on the territory of Ukraine...I hereby introduce...an appeal for the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine pending the normalization of the social and political situation in that country.
In stark contrast, a petition created on Friday, February 28, was already endorsed by over 130,000 ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking nationals of Ukraine.
Addressed to President Putin, it reads as follows:
We ethnic Russians and Russian-speaking Ukrainian nationals do not need other countries to defend our interests. We are grateful to you for support however would like to inform you that nobody has ever infringed our rights on Ukrainian territory. We have always lived freely and happily, speaking in the language we are accustomed to. In school we have also learned Ukraine’s state language and know it well enough to feel comfortable in a Ukrainian-speaking milieu.
With all due respect for your concern, therefore, we would ask you to not raise an internal question for our country which is not a burning issue for us at Russian Federation state level. Not to mention bringing troops in to regulate a conflict which you may see, but which is not visible to us. Thank you for your understanding.
The Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine violates Russia's international obligations under the UN charter, the Helsinki Final Act, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and the legal framework regulating the presence of the Russian Black Sea fleet in Ukraine. It needs to be condemned, and the international community must pressure Russia's president to respect Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Should the international community not act decisively in respect of Russia's invasion of the Crimea, Russia will be emboldened, as was Nazi Germany following the Munich Agreement, to continue to fuel its imperialistic ambitions under the guise of protecting the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, with possible expansion into eastern Ukraine and eventually other parts of Europe.
Ultimately, the best way to prevent the Kremlin from continuing to destabilize Ukraine, and in the process posing a serious threat to global security, would be for Russia to relocate its Black Sea fleet away from its current base in Ukraine to a naval base on Russian territory.
From the onset of the crisis in Ukraine, the Government of Canada has been responsive and reactive to ensure Canada's most effective engagement. Last week's visit by the Canadian delegation to Ukraine, led by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Honourable John Baird, the second over the course of the last three months, was an important gesture of Canadian solidarity with the people of Ukraine and Canada's clear recognition of Ukraine's new parliamentary government. Your continued leadership will be critical in supporting Ukraine to withstand the pressures being exerted from internal and external forces in their attempt to quell Ukraine's aspirations for a dignified life in a free society.
What must be the next steps? The Ukrainian World Congress urges Canada to actively cooperate with the international community to, one, support the new government of Ukraine; and two, send an international observer mission, under the auspices of the UN or the OSCE, to eastern and southern Ukraine, primarily to the Crimea, to monitor the situation on the ground and provide accurate information on developments. Three, Canada should cooperate with the international community to send UN peacekeeping forces to Ukraine; four, support international mediation to de-escalate the crisis in the Crimea; and five, impose sanctions, including visa bans, active money-laundering investigations, freezing of assets, and trade penalties, on Russia if it does not respond to the numerous legitimate calls to comply with its international obligations.
Six, the international community should follow Canada's lead and not attend the next G-8 summit in Sochi. Seven, Canada and the international community should suspend Russia's membership in the G-8; eight, organize an emergency G-7 meeting in Ukraine to address the economic, social, and security impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; and nine, offer Ukraine a financial assistance package to avert its economic collapse, help the new government launch necessary reforms of the Ukrainian economy, and offset the undue economic pressure being exerted by Russia to punish Ukraine for its political choice to integrate with the European community.
Ten, Canada and the international community should organize an international donors conference in Ukraine; eleven, provide quick medical and humanitarian assistance for the victims of the Euromaidan; twelve, send substantial monitoring missions for the May 25, 2014, presidential elections in Ukraine; thirteen, engage and support civil society in Ukraine; and fourteen, provide technical assistance for small and medium businesses that will enhance the development of a much needed middle class in Ukraine.
Mr. Chairman, members of the committee, the Ukrainian people have paid an extraordinarily high price for the right to live in a democratic European state. The international community has an obligation to ensure that this choice of the Ukrainian people is fully respected.
Thank you.