If Russia were to intervene militarily in eastern Ukraine, that timetable would be out the window. Everything would shift.
Let us suppose that Russian intervention stops with the Crimea. In passing, that is already a huge international problem, because it is still a violation of Ukraine's borders. But given that scenario, it might still be possible to hold elections. If so, the impact of a Russian military presence in the Crimea on the rest of Ukraine might surprise Mr. Putin. He clearly does not understand election dynamics, since he said at the time of the last elections that he hoped that there would be no second round. In any case, there weren't really any strong candidates, because they were all out of the running. A second round is destabilizing for Russian society; competition is destabilizing in itself. That said, the result might still be surprising.
We know that Ms. Timochenko and Mr. Klitschko have already announced their intentions. This is new territory. But I have the impression that Mr. Klitschko could, for the first time, unite eastern and western Ukraine, since he is a Russian-speaker himself and he has a strong reputation outside politics around the country. Moreover, rather shockingly, the last polls on voting intentions before the Maidan killings two weeks ago indicated that Mr. Klitschko would garner 60% to 65 % support against Mr. Yanukovych in the second round. That means that he could get nearly half of the votes in eastern Ukraine. That is very positive. No candidate has ever been able to obtain a majority in both parts of the country. Generally speaking, if a candidate received a huge majority in one part and a few votes in the other part, he would end up with a majority, but a very slim one.
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