The area of the world that we refer to as the Middle East is probably a lot more complex than most of us realize. For one thing, its present state did not evolve naturally. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire, which basically had controlled most if not all of the Middle East, basically the victorious parties of World War II, with the Sykes-Picot agreement of 1916, I believe, decided to divide the Middle East up in terms of areas of influence. That was basically the dominant rationale for the development of these countries.
If one looks at a map, it's striking how many straight lines exist as borders in the Middle East. A lot of these countries are artificial. For example, the Ottoman Turks were wise enough to divide what we call Iraq now, into three units. In the north there was Mosul, which is where the Kurds are; in the middle there was the vilayet of Baghdad where the Sunni Arabs are; and then in the south was the vilayet of Basra, where the Shiite Arabs are.
The Ottomans knew these people were different. When the Europeans divided the land up, they put these people all together and then declared, well, this is a country, probably with the idea that they were creating a country like Italy, France or Germany, Canada or the United States, where in point of fact, these countries have no history as a unit. They're artificial and they are inherently unstable. When one sees what's going on in Iraq between the Shiites in the south, the Sunnis in the Anbar province north of Baghdad, and the Kurds up in the area of Mosul, if one knows the history of this area, that's not really a surprise. If anything, the surprise is that it took this long to happen.
In addition, in the west—the United States at least—we speak of two Gulf wars. The people over there speak of three Gulf wars, the first being the Iraq-Iran war, which went from 1980-1988, where at least a half a million people were killed and possibly a million. Some two years later there was what we call the first Gulf war, which was to remove Iraqi troops from Kuwait. Then lastly, there was in the west, the second—or for the Iraqis, the third—Gulf war, which started in 2003, and which we were saying ended in 2011. Well, that's not so clear anymore. For years there has been no stability in this area.
Then in 2010, sort of to everyone's surprise, a man named Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in Tunisia and the Arab Spring began. I did some writings about the Arab Spring and one of the things that made me uncomfortable was actually what it was being called, the “Arab Spring.” My experience of the Middle East is that the spring is not a good time. That's the time when the rains stop and it gets incredibly hot and things die. In Europe and in North America, the spring is a time when everything blossoms and everything is nice, so the spring is an optimistic time. I wondered if calling what was happening in the Middle East the Arab Spring wasn't ominously prescient of what was going to happen, despite the fact that the people who were calling it “spring” didn't realize that.
What has happened is an inherently unstable situation with artificial countries, artificial divisions, and really, very little sense of national unity.
All of a sudden you have three major wars in Iraq and Iran. Then you have the destabilizing of north African countries, Egypt, and then ultimately the destabilization....I don't know if you can even call it a civil war anymore in Syria. All of this was basically an artificial vacuum and once the artificial thing broke, all kinds of operatives, who more or less were always there, were able to move in and fill the vacuum.
Until recently, in Syria one spoke of a central part—it's not the central part really, but the area around Damascus—that was controlled by the Assad government with considerable help, from what I hear, from the Russians. Most of the other embassies had left Damascus.
The western part of Syria was controlled by many groups of opposition. Opposition people that were constantly shifting, sometimes fighting each other, some of them being secular, some of them being—I'm not sure what it means—moderate, some of them being like the Jabhat al-Nusra, more extreme, but they were named groups.
In northeastern Syria and the area that's called Jazira, nobody knew who was in control there. It was in this area, around the city of Raqqa, that all of a sudden—I don't want to say ISIS appeared—it sort of coalesced. The people who coalesced to form ISIS had been there in the area for a while.
They started to come together and got organized in a way that none of the other opposition groups in Syria had been or still are organized. They were able to, even last year, take over the city of Raqqa and that is basically where they centred from. From there they went into the northwestern part of Iraq, the Mosul, the plain of Nineveh, and have basically wreaked havoc there ever since.
At the end of June 2014, which coincided with the first day of Ramadan, Ibrahim Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared himself the caliph and now we have the Islamic State, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, but a highly organized and incredibly brutal group of people.
Historically, I don't think that the Middle East has seen this kind of wanton destruction since the invasion of the Mongols in the 13th century, which wiped out the caliphate in Baghdad and destroyed much of the Muslim-Arab culture for centuries.
Now we're back to libraries being destroyed, monasteries and manuscripts being destroyed, and people killed for no other reason than they don't fit in. Also historically, and my dates on this are not clear, but it was just around the time of the Mongol invasion that there was a group called the assassins, which was a Muslim sect who behaved very similar to the Daesh, ISIS, or ISIL, but they were more limited. They were equally wanton in the destruction and killing, but not as organized and ultimately the Mongols destroyed them.
I guess I would end my remarks with that.
For people who are familiar with the Middle East, in a sense this is not a surprise. While hindsight is always 20/20, this wasn't or shouldn't have been a complete surprise. We should have seen that at least the conditions or the possibility for this happening were alive and well in the Middle East. But right now we are faced with a destabilizing influence in the Middle East, the likes of which I do not think has existed since the Mongol invasion.
In the past I maybe sometimes over-optimistically had some idea what was happening in the Middle East and where it was going. Right now I am not sure where it's going, but I am sure that the Ottoman Empire is now completely gone.