Evidence of meeting #51 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was russia.

A recording is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Paul Stronski  Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Rand Sukhaita  Director, Turkey, Darna Centres
Elana Wright  Education Material Officer, Canadian Catholic Organization for Development and Peace, Darna Centres

9:20 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

While our policies from the 1990s were to get all the central Asian energy resources flowing toward the west, China did it much more efficiently. All of Turkmenistan's and much of Uzbekistan's gas is flowing to China.

I do think there are frictions already in the relationship. When you speak to senior officials there is friction over whether things are going to be done bilaterally between the states of central Asia and China, or whether everything is supposed to go the way Russia wants through the Eurasian Union. This is a region where the leaders are very good at playing various global powers off one another. They will tell Russia, yes, we will do it through the Eurasian Union but instead they will go ahead and cut deals directly with the Chinese. I think this is building up Russian resentment. The problem is that the two countries right now almost have a condominium relationship whereby China is becoming the economic player and Russia is continuing its security. So far that seems to be working but the long-term question is whether China will feel a need to develop its own security infrastructure.

I think they might because when we had the problems in Kyrgyzstan and the Kyrgyz government asked the CSTO to come in to help put down the ethnic violence in 2010, Russia stood on the sidelines.

The biggest question and the concern China has is whether Russia is the reliable security partner. If it isn't, is China going to do something about that? If China ever takes that role of trying to have a greater security role in the region that's when you have the friction between the two countries. China invests billions and billions of dollars so they'll need to protect that at some point.

9:25 a.m.

Liberal

Raj Saini Liberal Kitchener Centre, ON

I want to follow up on that.

I see the development of China as a ring around that area because if you look at each country, directly or indirectly, China has a huge involvement. Of a more serious nature is Chinese involvement in Russia. Ever since the sanctions of 2014 China has provided a vehicle for credit and financial transactions. Also, Russia signed a huge deal to supply China with oil and gas for a long-term contract. For me, eventually Russia will be weakened in a different way as opposed to China.

China, right now, through its more economic creep that's going on in that region.... I don't see how Russia's going to maintain anything in that area when it has nothing to offer. Even militarily, if the region is more developed economically, the military question will recede on its own. Eventually, what is Russia's role going to be there?

9:25 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

I think you put the big question there. Russia has been a little disappointed with Chinese assistance after the sanctions because there was a pivot to China, but from what I'm told the terms of the gas deal they signed were very bad for Russia and that stoked some anger among some Russian officials.

I also understand that commercial banks in China and in Hong Kong have refused to be a lender because they are afraid of getting caught up in U.S. sanctions, and they value their ability to do transactions in the United States more than in Russia. They are getting financing, but it's coming more from the government and state banks than from the commercial banks. I think there are already people in Russia who see Russia on the losing end of this bargain, and they see the growing power. China has pretty much swallowed up Turkmenistan at this point, and there's not a whole lot Russia can do about it.

I think Russia is just keen to keep these countries in its orbit through whatever means it has. Many of these are symbolic at this point. The Eurasian Union is really not a functional union anything like the European Union. I don't think it ever will be. All of the states in the Eurasian Union are not very happy being in the Eurasian Union. They were strong-armed into being there, and they also played Putin's weak hand after Crimea and western sanctions by, both President Nazarbayev and President Lukashenko, trying to strip much political stuff out of the agreement. It's a very empty agreement.

The Russians are also trying to weaken the Shanghai Cooperation Organization by expanding it to include Pakistan and India. They are doing whatever they can to try to weaken Chinese influence in a way that doesn't look like they are, but I do think Russia recognizes that they are in a losing battle right now.

I think it's even the cultural power. One thing throughout the region that strikes me is how about 20 years ago you heard a lot more Russian, and now you see Confucius centres in the major cities, at the major universities. This is happening not just in places like Kyrgyzstan, but it's happening in Armenia and it's happening in Kazakhstan. These places are close Russian allies and dependencies, and I think that says a lot about their desire to make sure they have options, not just Russia. But Russia, I think, is on the losing end of this battle.

9:30 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

Thank you very much.

We're now going to start our next round. We're going to start with Mr. Sidhu.

9:30 a.m.

Liberal

Jati Sidhu Liberal Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon, BC

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you, Mr. Stronski, for your remarks this morning.

At this critical juncture in global politics, your insight is very much needed. As we're well aware, the challenges for states in central Asia have been striking a political and economic balance between their engagement with Russia and the western states.

Given Russia's mounting aggression in European areas and the western powers putting sanctions in, how do you envision the future of central Asia with the western world, or the rest of the world?

9:30 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

One thing that is clear whenever I go to central Asia is that they want to be connected to the west, maybe not Turkmenistan, which is its own separate category, but even post-Karimov Uzbekistan is reaching out to the west.

We've seen countries that have had bad relationships with the west. I can see it from Washington. For example, Kurdistan is one of them, and they are now suddenly trying to make sure the west doesn't forget about them. The message coming out of this region is that they don't want us to leave them. They don't want to be stuck between China and Russia. The message they're hearing back, though, is a message where we make sometimes strong statements about Georgia or Ukraine, but we're not necessarily following them up with any security guarantee.

They see a U.S. president who questions the fundamental alliances and they ask themselves, “If the President of the United States can question NATO, what does that mean for a partner like Kazakhstan?”

Many of these countries are looking to the west. They see a European Union that is in disarray and they're looking at other countries in the west. Canada is one of them. I think Canada has a role and it's one they would like to play. You see these countries often looking at Japan and South Korea, which are very active economically in the region. As they see Europe and the United States turn inward on themselves, they are now hoping for countries that have not been as in front of the west as places they would like to increase engagement with.

From a Canadian perspective, I think there's probably a longing in the region for a greater presence or a greater focus on central Asia. You also hear that the Nordics are another area that the central Asians are focusing on. They clearly want to have a relationship with the west. They want the economic engagement and some of the countries are more than willing to meet us half-way, at least on the governance issue.

Kurdistan is struggling to do it. Kazakhstan talks a great talk. They have great plans. All they need to do is implement them. The other countries are really very much regressing. Uzbekistan, however, is also opening up a little bit and doing some interesting things right now, but it's still too early to see where that is going to go.

9:30 a.m.

Liberal

Jati Sidhu Liberal Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon, BC

What I hear is that the relationship with central Asia is strengthening; that's the way you see it. As they're maintaining their close relationship with Russia, would they be able to strengthen their relationship with the western world?

9:35 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

That depends. None of these countries want to follow the path of Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova of signing official agreements with the west and having an official partnership as we see in the European Union association agreements. They're perfectly willing to increase bilateral trade talks, and some of them are willing to increase security co-operation, but they don't want to have it on the front lines and on the front pages.

Anything that can be done quietly, these countries are very willing to do. They just don't want to be asked. I think when we look back over what happened in 2013 and 2014, the European Union made a big mistake in trying to have everyone sign onto a document on the same day. As long as they have political cover for whatever they do, I think that's something they want.

9:35 a.m.

Liberal

Jati Sidhu Liberal Mission—Matsqui—Fraser Canyon, BC

In your view, Mr. Trump's idea of lifting sanctions on Russia, how real is that threat?

9:35 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

I think it depends. There seems to be a strong desire among many people on his team to somehow improve the relationship with Russia, and the former national security adviser Flynn is gone because he evidently was talking about that too soon.

I do think that some of the information that's come out about the ties between the Trump campaign and various Russian officials, which seems to come out every day, makes it a little more difficult for Mr. Trump to do this, so at least we're seeing a delay. But the idea that he can get rid of all the sanctions very easily is misguided on his part and on Russia's part.

The Russians want all sanctions gone. That includes the Magnitsky sanctions, which were mandated by Congress. They cannot be revoked by the president. Our UN ambassador has said the ones on Crimea will not be revoked, so it's just the others. I think there would be a lot of push-back in the United States and an attempt by Congress to try to codify them in legislation, which would complicate any sort of deal that Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin try to make. I think if he tries, it will be a messy process for him.

9:35 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

Thank you, Mr. Sidhu.

We'll finish up with Mr. Aboultaif. Welcome to the committee, sir.

March 9th, 2017 / 9:35 a.m.

Conservative

Ziad Aboultaif Conservative Edmonton Manning, AB

Good morning, Mr. Stronski, and thank you very much for your insight this morning.

I would like to start my question by seeing if you agree to some assumptions that I want to discuss this morning. They are that we're still in the Cold War; the Soviet Union hasn't been dissolved, it still continues; Russia is more aggressive than the old Soviet Union; and our plan and influence in some of the regimes in the world through promoting democracy, human rights, and freedom has failed.

Do you agree with all that?

9:35 a.m.

Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Paul Stronski

I'm not sure if I would agree that the Soviet Union has not dissolved. We now have 15 independent states that actually have their own separate identifies, that are very keen on defending those identities and defending their sovereignty, and they have institutionalized entire post-Soviet governments. So I think there are certain mindsets that still linger and the Kremlin certainly would like to reintegrate as much of it as it can, but I think many of these political leaders are resistant. I think we saw that in the push-back to the Eurasian Union and the concerns that have been raised over some of Russia's aggressive behaviour.

Moscow might not recognize that, but I do think it will be difficult to fully reintegrate any sort of Soviet.... Russia is extremely aggressive right now. It is taking advantage of vacuums around the world, taking advantage of people being distracted. I think no one was really looking at Ukraine until Crimea happened, and Russia is wanting to push back at the west wherever it can. The negative influence it had in the United States might not have caused Trump to win, but it certainly helped. It certainly hurt former secretary Clinton, and I think we see that replayed in Europe. We're seeing these tactics, which were more reserved for their immediate neighbourhood, going elsewhere. I think that all western states, Canada included, need to firm up their resilience to this type of pressure.

Are we in a cold war? The Cold War had very strict ideologies. We don't have the same sort of ideology today, but we are in a very dangerous situation. We have a Russian government that is very anti-American, very anti-western, and if you come down here, you have half of the U.S. population that is as vehemently anti-Russian as it ever has been, and that was not the case just a few years ago.

I don't see the ideologies, but I do see the animosities growing. I also see the mechanisms that tried to keep the international playing field stable, and tried to keep the NATO member militaries and Warsaw Pact militaries from having an unintended conflict, have broken down, so I'm very worried about when ships get buzzed, or flights, you know, when fighters get too close to each other.

Has promotion of democracy failed? I think it has failed in some places. I think in Russia it doesn't look very good. In parts of central Asia it does not look very good. Ukraine is struggling, but it has a free press and it has people who are willing to take to the streets. I think in Georgia it has been successful. I think in Moldova it has had its ups and downs but has been more or less successful. I think a place like Armenia, which is very closely tied to Russia, does have a somewhat free press and it is more democratic. It's not a democracy, but it is more democratic than other places in the region.

I don't think it can be a total success, but I do think when you look at assistance, we need to figure out the type of assistance that will be useful. In places like Georgia, Ukraine, even Armenia, or Kyrgyzstan, where it has been a little bit more successful, that is still very important to do. But I also think in places like Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, where people are really being pushed into poverty, there are things we can do to improve human security, which is also tied to human rights. That could be basic education, health care, vaccines, or food security assistance, all of which will help people who are really struggling in environments where our assistance in democracy and promoting the rule of law has been more difficult.

I also think countries that have decided they wanted to join the OSCE council of Europe need to be held accountable for that decision, and if they continue on their path—Azerbaijan is not living up to a lot of it—I think there should be consequences for their membership in these organizations.

9:40 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

That's all the time we have.

9:40 a.m.

Conservative

Ziad Aboultaif Conservative Edmonton Manning, AB

Thank you.

9:40 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

Mr. Stronski, thank you very much for your time as you join us from Washington with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We appreciate the feedback today. If you think of anything else that you think that we should have, then please, by all means, send it to the committee clerk. That would be great.

Thank you very much.

We're going to suspend while we get set up for our next panel.

9:50 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

Good morning and welcome.

Rand Sukhaita, welcome. It's great to have you here. As we look at your bio, I think all the members are really looking forward to hearing what you've been doing, what your involvement has been with Syria, how you've been helping women, and just doing a whole bunch of things. We are certainly looking forward to your testimony.

The way it normally works around here is that we'll give you 10 minutes or so to give us your opening testimony, and then we'll go around the room asking questions about maybe something you said or something that you haven't said that people could follow up on.

Elana Wright, welcome as well. It's good to have you here.

We'll let you get started, and then we'll go around with questions.

9:50 a.m.

Rand Sukhaita Director, Turkey, Darna Centres

Thank you.

Good morning, all. I would like to start by thanking Development and Peace, who invited me here to Canada to share my story and to talk about the work that I do in the Darna centres in Syria, which serve the vulnerable Syrian families who have chosen to stay in Syria as the war continues.

I would also like to thank the committee for inviting me here today.

I am Rand Sukhaita, a woman from Syria. I'm a pharmacist and a mother. I'm from northern Syria, from a small city called Idlib. I fled to Turkey almost four years ago with my small family. Before this, I moved between cities, trying to find a safe one in which to give birth to my baby. The first year in Turkey was the hardest, because I didn't know whether I would be able to go back to Syria soon or have to stay there. I was following the news every day. It took me one year to realize I wasn't going back to Syria soon.

I then decided to think of the Syrian people who were left behind, who are facing every day all kinds of struggles, from displacement to bombing and shelling, to chemical weapons from the regime and his allies, to the extremists who destroyed all the villages' valuables and interfered in their personal freedom. In spite of all this, they are still trying to make a better life and a better future. They are struggling for their freedom and dignity. This relates to the Darna centres' mission, which is to construct a society that lives with dignity.

We have three centres in Syria, one in the south and two in northern Syria, in Aleppo and Idlib. Unfortunately, we closed our centre in Aleppo after the evacuation happened in December.

Darna means “our home” in Arabic, which is the main goal for the centres. Besides access to services, the centres provide a safe space for families and individuals, so they can rebuild their social networks—lost through displacement—and find a sense of belonging to a community again. All of our centres apply an open door policy, so that anyone from the community can come to access the service. Our staff can provide service or refer them to any other service provider in the area. That is why the centres are not operated as a stand-alone service but as part of a holistic approach that seeks resilience for the community.

The centres provide vocational training, English, computer, and business courses, as well as sewing workshops for women. Women there are trained to sew clothes so they can find a job in the local labour market. From the lessons learned from our work, we know that it's important to couple skills development and income generation programs with psychosocial support and protection programs in order to enable women to overcome the trauma they have experienced in war and adopt to their new role. In addition, we have to link the skills development training with local labour markets so that they have job opportunities afterwards.

Syrian women are more vulnerable to discrimination, poverty, and social exclusion than their male counterparts due to social cultural norms present in the region. Many have found themselves for the first time ever as the sole breadwinner for their family, given the death or incapacitation of or separation from the primary male earners. Yet those who have found themselves in this situation also tend to lack the skills, capacity, and confidence to procure income-generating work. This often puts women in an impossible position of having to provide for themselves and their families.

We know that when women generate an income, they make better decisions with their income. Their priority will be mainly to provide education for their children and to have access to the community. That's why we should start working with women and listen to them if we want to achieve peace. We should include women in each step of the process.

It's very important to work to empower women so they can deal with their new role. At the same time, we should be preparing their community—husbands and families—to accept them in their new role, and to accept that they can go out of their home, work and generate income, make better decisions, and support their families. This is the main challenge we're facing now inside Syria in some areas. Even though I believe that war is the worst thing that can happen to human beings, it's a real opportunity for real change.

After the revolution, I started to see women acting differently. They worked in organizing the demonstrations, in field hospitals, as teachers, and even in civil defence. They documented human rights abuses. They were arrested and kidnapped. They worked in media. Here, I'd like to give an example of what happened in Aleppo during the evacuation. The only activist who raised what was happening in Aleppo was a woman called Lina al-Shami.

Let me tell you about Hannan, who is married and is the mother of three children. She has had to support her family on her own ever since her husband suffered a stroke that left him partially paralysed. She recently took an 11-week sewing course offered in one of our centres. She says, “Through the training course, I personally evolved a lot as a person. I am no longer Hannan the shy, but Hannan the responsible woman who provides for her family. I have more confidence in myself. Even my husband looks at me differently. I did not imagine that one day in my life I would be in that place! Today, I dream of teaching sewing or running a learning centre.”

The Syrians need us to share their stories and show their daily bravery in facing this crisis. They need us to believe in them, invest in them, and build their capacity to strengthen Syrian civil society so that it can develop new leaders in order to make the change. We need to directly support Syrian organizations, to invest in Syria, and to build its capacity to make real change with less short-term intervention, and more resilience-based approaches.

Let's think about the civilians who are facing the extremist groups in some areas. How can they do this without our support if they are left alone without any tools to do so? How will the next generation be able to resist without access to education? We should know that only the Syrians themselves will be able to build their country again. Any solution that doesn't include them will not be successful.

Believe me when I say that are a lot of Syrian women who struggle daily for their lives and their dignity and for a better future, and they provide role models for how women can be and should be. This week, as we celebrate International Women's Day, I would like to remember the thousands of women who faced death under torture and the thousands of women who have been disappeared.

Thank you.

10 a.m.

Conservative

The Vice-Chair Conservative Dean Allison

Thank you very much.

Just to my colleagues, I have seven people on the list, and it's supposed to be six minutes per round. l let people go a little longer as they tried to build their case. To get everyone in, if we could try to work towards the six minutes, that would be fantastic.

We'll start with Mr. Kent, and then we'll move through the list.

10 a.m.

Conservative

Peter Kent Conservative Thornhill, ON

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you both for being with us today.

I'd like to speak to something I hear in the time I occasionally spend with our standing committee on immigration. We've heard increasingly about problems with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' non-recognition of internally displaced persons as certified refugees. We've heard it in the context of the Yazidis and other religious minorities in the Kurdish autonomous region in northern Iraq, where they're very much unsupported either by the Government of Iraq or by the Kurdish autonomous region, and they're in a terrible state. Is there a similar situation with regard to religious minorities for IDP populations within Syria?

10 a.m.

Director, Turkey, Darna Centres

Rand Sukhaita

If I understand you well, it is the same for minority groups as for the majority. Most of the Syrian people have faced this forced displacement. Most of them have moved to live in other cities in northern Syria and in the middle, as well as the majority who are Muslims maybe.

10 a.m.

Conservative

Peter Kent Conservative Thornhill, ON

With regard to the minorities, we've heard anecdotes many times that the humanitarian staff in many IDP camp situations in Iraq have not fairly shared resources, humanitarian supplies and medicine, with the minorities. I'm wondering whether that's the case in Syria.

10 a.m.

Director, Turkey, Darna Centres

Rand Sukhaita

Yes, this is the case in most of the camps, even in the Kurdish-controlled or the regime-controlled area, and it's very different from the liberated area.

10 a.m.

Conservative

Peter Kent Conservative Thornhill, ON

Could you speak to the situation of the almost five million registered Syrian refugees outside Syria, in Turkey, in Jordan...?

10 a.m.

Director, Turkey, Darna Centres

Rand Sukhaita

Since I am a refugee and I'm in Turkey, maybe I can explain our situation in Turkey, but I can't give you the full picture of the refugees. I just know the general picture.