Thank you very much for inviting me today as you prepare the second half of your fact-finding mission in support of your study of Canada's engagement in Asia.
My main area of focus in political science is Canada-China relations. I've also published studies on the domestic and foreign policies of China and North Korea, and I served twice at the Canadian embassy in Beijing.
With so much going on between China and the United States and North Korea in recent weeks, the timing of your mission comes on the cusp of what could be game-changing transformation of the geostrategic dynamic of the North Asia region. This potentially has very far-reaching consequences for the domestic and international politics of our allies Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
I have two points.
The first point is that the ongoing successive imposition of tariffs and other restrictive measures on China by the Government of the United States is eliciting accelerating reciprocal responses by the Government of the People's Republic of China that will likely prove disruptive to the global economy and to us. This trade dispute, I would say, has at its source much more fundamental concerns about the incompatibility of China's political economy and global ambitions with those of Canada and like-minded nations, including today's Japan and South Korea. That's to say that Canada adheres to the principles of liberal democracy, principles that we as Canadians maintain have universal meaning as the rights entitled to all people everywhere. These liberal democratic principles inform the domestic and international institutions that shape Canada's politics and foreign policy.
Unfortunately, as the two previous speakers alluded to, in recent years the current Government of China has explicitly rejected liberal democratic ideals as unsuited to China. China maintains that these are not universal values, but rather that liberal democracy is at odds with its interpretation of Chinese history and culture, and that the west uses liberal democratic discourse and the institutions that we've developed to support a liberal global order to challenge China's rise to power.
China is confident that the U.S.-led alliance that is so central to Canada, Japan, and South Korea's international identity is heading to collapse and that China will eventually emerge as the new global hegemon. Indeed, China proposes a new global order under China's own rubric called “a community of common destiny for mankind”. China's president has put forward that this “community of common destiny for mankind” is a new type of international relations. The Chinese Communist Party's newspaper, the People's Daily, says that the “community of common destiny for mankind” framework is superior to western mainstream international relations theory, pushing China to become the world's unassailable economic and cultural leader by the year 2050.
As you pointed out, human rights and multilateral co-operation have no part in the Chinese president's plans for world dominance. The incompatibility of China's political economy and global ambitions with those of Canada and like-minded nations, including Japan and South Korea, expresses itself in China's relations with Canada, South Korea, and Japan today. Certainly, there are a lot of things about China that we're unhappy about. There are the Chinese state firms purloining Canadian intellectual property through cyber-espionage and the transfer of Canadian-developed technologies by theft or coercion. There is the Chinese lack of respect for the fair play trade reciprocity of the WTO by its imposition of tariff and non-tariff barriers, including arbitrary imposition of restrictive regulations and taxes to inhibit foreign competition in the Chinese market. These are all concerns that are shared by Canada, South Korea, the Philippines, and Japan.
The Chinese government's attempts to influence foreign policy-makers through covert, coercive, or corrupt means are also an increasing concern of these four governments.
The question is, to what extent can China be expected to respond to the U.S.'s successive application of economic pressure and end its unfair trade and investment practices and the use of Chinese state firms to achieve China's larger longer-term foreign policy ambitions?
For your upcoming mission to Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines, an issue to explore would be, if the trade war between China and the United States intensifies, can Canada coordinate our policy response with Korea, Japan, and the Philippines? If there is consensus on a coordinated and effective response by us and our like-minded allies, what form should this response take?
My second point is shorter. The governments of the United States and South Korea are now simultaneously diplomatically engaging the Government of North Korea with a renewed vigour that holds forth the prospect of a formal end to the Korean War, of which Canada is a party, as you know, and the possibility of normalization of diplomatic relations between North Korea and the United States.
Where this will lead is uncertain. If Mr. Trump were to meet with Kim Jong-un, the Korean dictator, and the negotiations fail, what is the next diplomatic option if the top guys have already decided it's not working?
If this process leads to a rapprochement of some kind, it opens the question of how Canada should respond. We already have diplomatic relations with North Korea, but presently we have no embassy in that country, or programming in North Korea. Our interests are represented by the Swedish embassy in Pyongyang. Under what conditions would Canada send an ambassador to North Korea? What sort of developmental aid program would we initiate in that impoverished regime if the United States becomes active in North Korea, the war ends, and Canada feels that we should fulfill our Canadian foreign policy objectives there?
The reconstruction of North Korea, which today is largely a devastated country, has enormous potential for Canadian trade and investment and business. As Canadians, we would also hope to engage in good governance, human rights, and democratic development programming there, identifying potential agents of democratic political change, assisting to strengthen the rule of law, and so on.
Here again, strong coordination between Canada, South Korea, and Japan on how we should respond to and support the current initiatives to engage with North Korea, now and for future political and economic engagement of North Korea, would be something important to explore in the course of your mission to Korea, Japan, and the Philippines.
Bon voyage. I very much look forward to reading the report of your findings after you return to Canada.
Thank you.