Thank you very much for the question.
Of course, I don't have a crystal ball, but history will tell us. I think this is possibly the most realistic scenario, even if it is terribly sad. It is the most realistic in the sense that it gives Mr. Putin the opportunity to say that he has won, because he controls the Black Sea and can therefore separate Ukraine from the Black Sea, important ports, natural resources, and so on. Dr. Snyder has already spoken about this.
I think that is indeed the plan he is trying to implement. In order to do that, he has to move the front as quickly as possible. That's what he seems to be doing. Indeed, we have seen in recent days that there is an intensification of the offensive in Mariupol, but there are also, as I mentioned earlier, plans to set up another pro-Russian republic in the Kherson region. We also see that the Odessa region is under pressure. It seems that this territory in the south of Ukraine is the one that is currently under the most pressure.
It is important for Mr. Putin to act before signing a ceasefire. History shows us that, whether it is the conflicts in Moldova, Georgia or elsewhere, when a ceasefire occurs, the demarcation line of the warring parties is where the front line ends. So this line of demarcation is extremely important to Mr. Putin.