Thank you. Those were both very cheerful questions, and I congratulate you on making my remarks even darker than they were in the original formulation.
On the first question, that of tactical nuclear weapons, I think my broadest point here would be that there has to be an anticipatory reaction that goes beyond North America and Europe. I think we ought to be able to build a broader consensus about the use of biological, chemical and tactical nuclear weapons than just North America. I think that should be something at least on the scale of the OSCE, but possibly going beyond the countries who would seem like natural allies in this business, because establishing norms about the use of nuclear weapons is something that doesn't just concern this war. That would be my first impulse.
My second impulse would be that—I agree with you—there has to be some kind of clear statement about what kind of deterrent would be at hand. I should say, I am less concerned about this scenario than some people seem to be. I think that Mr. Putin has succeeded very well in framing this war in terms of things he might do, as opposed to things he could do or things he would do, and I think there's an element of this that supposes we will spend our time being concerned about escalatory scenarios.
My footnote there would be—you didn't ask this directly, but I'm going to just add this—I think, pragmatically, the best way to prevent escalatory scenarios is to try to keep the war as short as possible, because it's not so much the intentions as the multiplicatory effect of time that makes these things more likely. If we saw an opportunity to make the war shorter, this is one more reason to take it.
On food, I quite agree with you. I wrote a book called Black Earth, which is a history of the Holocaust, in which I tried to reintroduce the ecological factor; that is, the perception that shortages are coming tends to make perceived racial and other enmities much more tangible, plausible and salient in politics. I completely agree with this.
The short-term scenario, I have to say, I'm not so worried about. I'm more worried about a long-term scenario in which Russia controls all access to the Black Sea, and therefore Russian and Ukrainian food supplies are added to natural gas as the kind of thing that the Russian leadership can treat as a weapon. I don't think this war actually began as an attempt to control the Black Sea. I think it began as an attempt to overthrow the Ukrainian government, install a new government and create a pan-Russia. All of the evidence suggests that. However, where we are now, I'm worried about the scenario of the Black Sea being controlled by Russia.