Evidence of meeting #20 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was chinese.
A video is available from Parliament.
Liberal
Ali Ehsassi Liberal Willowdale, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I understand how complicated these things become when you have to monitor the screens as well.
I have to admit that I also have a hard deadline by 5:45. I was wondering if it would be possible for us to actually only have this committee until 5:45 today, given that there are other members as well. We heard from Mr. Sarai.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
We can do a vote, Mr. Ehsassi, if you'd like. You can move something and we can have a vote on it. There will still be quorum.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
For the decision that we need to take, I would propose we do that before the second panel, just so we have that motion we need for tomorrow, if that's convenient. If you need a substitute for the final 15 minutes or 20 minutes, you can certainly do that.
Mr. Morantz is up for three minutes.
Conservative
Marty Morantz Conservative Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I want to touch on the meeting between Mr. Putin and Mr. Xi in February before Russia invaded Ukraine. In that meeting they declared a new era in the global order, where they endorsed their respective territorial ambitions. Presumably that means that Russia is endorsing China's claim over Taiwan. The pact challenged the U.S. as a global power and NATO as a cornerstone of international security and liberal democracy.
I guess the question in my mind was.... I can understand why Mr. Putin would love to have this pact before he invaded Ukraine. I'd be interested in your comments on why President Xi would agree to such a thing. I'm wondering if President Xi regrets it, given how badly this Russian incursion has gone for them.
That is for either of you.
Professor of Chinese Studies, King's College London, and Director, Lau China Institute, As an Individual
As I said earlier, the language of that full communiqué on February 4 is all sort of formal Chinese diplomatic language, with the win-win and all this sort of rhetoric. I think it would be surprising if Putin had been very explicit on February 4. I don't think China was expecting what happened to happen, but I don't think that China would radically change its support for Russia because they have had kind of a strong strategic relationship over the last 20 years.
The more interesting question is who is dominant in this relationship. I think for Xi Jinping, Russia being the bad boy and always taking the flak is cool. That's good.
Also, if you think about it, America and everyone else are now very distracted by what's happening in Russia between Russian and Ukraine, and not focusing as purely as they were on issues around China. All the diplomatic effort is going there and for China that is not a wholly bad thing too. What it would be worried about is escalation and Putin being backed into a corner where he did something impulsive and kind of intemperate.
Conservative
Marty Morantz Conservative Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley, MB
Thank you. Given my lack of time, I was hoping I could go.... I have another question.
I'm sorry, Professor Tsang. Do you want to get in on that one very briefly?
Professor, SOAS University of London, As an Individual
Yes, I think it's a very important one, which is that I disagree with Kerry that the relationship is a purely personal one. All Xi Jinping and Putin want is a strategic partnership between Russia and China, even though they have other historical problems that have not disappeared. Xi Jinping knew exactly what he was doing when he agreed to that agreement with Putin, and he fully supports Putin in the invasion. I think we have to bear that in mind. Even though he might not have gotten all the specific details, he was not duped.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
Thank you very much, Professor Tsang.
I apologize, Mr. Morantz. We just have to be a little tighter on time because these are very tight allocations of three minutes and one and a half.
Dr. Fry, please, you have three minutes.
Liberal
Hedy Fry Liberal Vancouver Centre, BC
Thank you very much.
I want to thank the witnesses for coming and giving us such very frank and insightful answers.
What I want to ask is this: With Japan making clear statements about its concern over Taiwan and what is going on in that area of the straits, and Australia standing up for it.... Taiwan has lost quite a few of its allies, people who traded with it and were standing up for it. It's now down to about 14 clear-cut countries that are still trying to work with Taiwan.
Do you feel that things will change, given that 24 European nations supported Canada with the Michael Spavor and Michael Korvig thing? They came to stand at the court, and they came to speak out on that issue. Do you think that Europe, seeing the links between Ukraine and Putin right now, would begin to become a lot more aware of what could happen and begin to listen to Japan, which is a G7 country that may be very concerned about what's going on there for its own sake?
That's what I'm wondering. Do you think that those things are making people focus a little quietly on what's going on? The buzzing of warships and planes in the strait surrounding Taiwan is also something that Russia had done when it entered Crimea and when it started to do all of its manoeuvres, etc. It may very well be that it is a message that China is giving.
My question is this: What is going to happen with the Indo-Pacific region? Where's India going to go? Where is South Korea going to go when we start lining up and forming alliances, if anything begins to happen there?
Professor, SOAS University of London, As an Individual
First of all, I think the EU is getting more concerned about the assertiveness of China, but it is not paying really quite that much attention to the core strait situation. I think you can do both at the same time.
India takes the rise of China extremely seriously. They don't really trust the Chinese now, but where they will stand will be pretty opportunistic, particularly if we continue to have a Modi administration in Delhi.
Others in the region are concerned about China, but none of them want to be on the other side of China because they are likely to face punishment from the Chinese.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
Thank you, Dr. Fry. That's just about your time, within five seconds left. I apologize. These are much tighter rounds, and just to get through the entire thing, I have to be tight on time. Thank you very much.
Mr. Bergeron, you have a minute and a half to ask your question and obtain an answer.
Liberal
Hedy Fry Liberal Vancouver Centre, BC
I'm hoping that we can get a written answer from Mr. Brown on this.
Thanks.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
Absolutely. That's always available as an option, yes. Thank you for that.
The floor is yours, Mr. Bergeron.
Bloc
Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Since I don't have much time, I'll simply follow up on my earlier question about the PRC or Taiwan—or both—joining the CPTPP.
From the answers we've heard, especially from Professor Brown, I am given to understand that Canada has two options: either the PRC joins the CPTPP first, leaving Taiwan no place in the partnership; or Taiwan joins first, leaving the door open to the PRC possibly joining at some point.
Professor of Chinese Studies, King's College London, and Director, Lau China Institute, As an Individual
With the WTO, the World Trade Organization, the People's Republic of China joined first and then Taiwan joined almost immediately afterwards, although Taiwan had been compliant way before the People's Republic. Possibly, that would be on a track with TPP.
Taiwan has signed bilateral trade agreements, I think with Singapore and some others. It might be politically possible, but I think there may be costs. It's a complicated issue. There may well be costs.
If it's a big deal, you can have Taiwan as part of it, but how can you exclude China if you want it to be meaningful? It's so much bigger as an economy.
Professor, SOAS University of London, As an Individual
Very briefly, if we have time, CPTPP is unlikely to go against China because it is led by Japan. Japan would not like to do that. The reality is that Taiwan is able to be compliant with CPTPP. China is not going to be able to comply for quite a long time. The question, then, really is this: Should an organization like CPTPP accept an appropriate potential member being denied membership because of the objection by one that does not actually meet the criteria for CPTPP membership?
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
Thank you very much, Professor Tsang.
Thank you, Mr. Bergeron.
We go to Ms. McPherson, please, for one and a half minutes.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
I don't have very much time at all, so I'll ask a very quick question. We are expecting Canada to have a new Indo-Pacific strategy. How should Canada address Taiwan in its new strategy?
Dr. Tsang, could I start with you?
Professor, SOAS University of London, As an Individual
I think the strength of Canada is always that it has a moral strength but is not actually part of the United States. You are not the United States, so you don't have those kinds of issues there. You can stand on your principles. When you do that, you could potentially provide leadership for other countries that share your values, which will also do so.
There is scope for you to try to do the right things, but you really will need to have quite a few friends acting together. Otherwise, you will pay a heavy price. Beijing will make sure that you do.
Professor of Chinese Studies, King's College London, and Director, Lau China Institute, As an Individual
The Indo-Pacific is going to only really be meaningful if it is a reality, because I think it's just a concept. I don't think it has any reality. If a lot of very different, complicated partners really buy into it and make it a reality, that will take an enormous amount of diplomacy and coordination. We're entering into a golden age of diplomacy here. If you are a diplomat, you have a big growth area. I'm sure they're very happy with this idea of the Indo-Pacific.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann
Ms. McPherson, thank you very much.
Mr. McCauley, welcome to the committee. You have three minutes, please.
Kelly McCauley Edmonton West, CPC
Great. Thanks.
Witnesses, it's a pleasure to be joining you today. I want to ask you a question, just quickly, about how Canada's investing a fair amount in CPPIB into China. Of course, we have the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
Does that hurt our credibility or our ability to perhaps stand up to the bullying or stand up for democratic rights in the area, while we're pouring money in at the same time?