Evidence of meeting #20 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was chinese.
A video is available from Parliament.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
I mean with having tensions. Is there potential, and what could that potentially mean?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
Not for now. The tension is political and we're not yet in a situation where we have a credible military intervention, so the effect is minimal.
If we think in the long term, in as much as the threat appears more credible, that's going to factor into our long-term planning.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
That's great. Thank you.
There was an announcement where the government discussed the need for Canada and Taiwan to continue to work together. Specifically, in January of this year, the readout from the minister refers to—there are a number of things in here—an increase in “collaboration on science, technology and innovation”.
My question around that is whether there are any risks with potential tensions in the Taiwan Strait that could jeopardize this, specifically with shared IP between Canada and Taiwan. What can we do to mitigate this or protect ourselves moving forward?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
If we maintain and improve in our relations, I don't see a risk unless your hypothesis is that there's a military intervention by China. Of course, that is a serious risk, but this is not where we are now.
In the current level of our informal relations with Taiwan, there's no risk that I envision realistically.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
You mentioned semiconductors in your testimony, so I wanted to dig in a bit deeper there. We know that this is an important product for Taiwan, and it's important for Canada when it comes to critical mineral supply chains and EVs.
I was wondering if you could go into more detail about the opportunity for Canada to have better access to semiconductors by strengthening trade relations with Canada and Taiwan? Again, do you see any potential risks?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
I don't have expertise in that domain. I would not speculate too much, except to say that TSMC, Taiwan's main maker of semiconductors, controls 65% of the world market. There are other Taiwanese firms, so Taiwan, in the whole industry, controls 85% of the global market.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
With Taiwan expressing interest in and applying to join the trans-Pacific partnership, the CPTPP, I was wondering if you had any thoughts on how Canada could support Taiwan's bid to join this trade agreement.
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
Taiwan qualifies already. There's no question about that. China does not qualify, so we have an obvious political issue here, except that we already have some international or transnational agreements where you have membership that is not limited to states. For example, we have Taiwan's customs territory in the World Trade Organization.
Unfortunately, to my knowledge, the CPTPP is between states, so we may have to send a signal that Taiwan should be welcome in the CPTPP. I believe that.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
Thank you for that information.
Just to tag on to that, what would be the implications if democracies such as Canada stopped advocating for Taiwan's participation in trade agreements like CPTPP?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
What would be the...?
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
What could be the implications if democracies like ours stop or lessen our advocacy?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
That would contribute to the decline of our reputation as supportive of democracies.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
Thank you.
I think I might have time for one more quick question.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
Thank you.
We heard testimony earlier today from another witness that it would make sense for like-minded countries to band together collectively—we have larger economies than the People's Republic of China—to combat potential threats. Would you agree that this would be a good strategy, not only for those countries, which might include Canada, but also for Taiwan?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
I think that the idea of grouping with like-minded countries makes sense, but maybe I would change the word “combat”. I would say, just make sense and try to make convincing arguments. I like the way my colleague Joe Wong approached the question. He's talking about inducement. Like-minded countries come together vis-à-vis China to say that they might consider doing different policies and doing things differently, and will co-operate better, if China makes our preferred changes.
Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC
Where do you see the biggest opportunities if Taiwan joins the CPTPP?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
I think it depends on our political will. Are we willing to support Taiwan's admission to the CPTPP? I hope that we will, in a nutshell.
Liberal
Liberal
Ali Ehsassi Liberal Willowdale, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Allow me to thank both professors for their excellent presentations. I must confess, I learned quite a bit. I will start with Professor Laliberté.
In your opening remarks, one issue that you highlighted for attention was that the rest of the world has to be clear in terms of what the consequences would be for China should they invade Taiwan. As we all know, the U.S. is adhering to an official policy of strategic ambiguity. In your opinion, is that the right approach?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
That's an approach that has worked well so far, but that's an approach that is now showing its limits. I think we ought to move to a policy of clarity. Japan is moving in this direction. Canada is not in the same position as Japan or the United States. We're not a military power; however, in terms of co-operation in many areas, I think we should have a policy of clarity saying that, if China misbehaves in the Taiwan Strait, Canada should perhaps reconsider or downgrade some forms of co-operation.
If I may, Mr. Chair, I would like to add something. We always talk with the assumption that China is an ever-growing, important actor in the international community. I think we should stop being hypnotized by this perspective and consider the other important actors in Asia that are emerging and becoming potentially important partners. I'm thinking about Indonesia, the largest Muslim democracy on the planet. I'm tempted to say India, but I would say that I'll wait until the next election, because the Modi government doesn't inspire me with confidence. I'm sorry. I digress here.
Liberal
Ali Ehsassi Liberal Willowdale, ON
Thank you.
Now just quickly, Professor Laliberté, is it your read that South Korea and Japan are adopting a more robust approach and steering away from strategic ambiguity as well?
Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual
For Japan, yes, I definitely see that, but for South Korea, I'm hesitant to answer because South Korea has concerns with North Korea. South Korea also does not want to antagonize China. It also has its own economic relationship with China. At the end of the day, I think that South Korea realizes that its security is better protected by reinforcing its co-operation with Japan and the United States.
Liberal
Ali Ehsassi Liberal Willowdale, ON
Thank you.
Now I'll turn to Professor Wong.
First of all, allow me to say that your explanation as to how the democratic transition took place in Taiwan was fascinating. I agree with you. The country is a model for the rest of Asia in terms of inclusivity and innovation on numerous different indicators.
We heard from the first panel that there were polls of the Taiwanese as to what their attitudes were towards a Chinese attack or possible unification. Could you share with us any data or information you might have on Taiwanese attitudes towards unification with mainland China?
