Good afternoon, Chairman, Vice-Chairs Bergeron and Chong, and distinguished members of the committee.
I am deeply honoured to have this opportunity to address you once again. When we met in January, the primary topic of our discussion was the blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh. At that time, I shared with you the concerns that my organization, the International Crisis Group, had about the escalating tensions and general instability in the region. Unfortunately, much of our analysis has proven to be accurate. In September, we witnessed a one-day military operation by Azerbaijan that prompted an exodus of almost the entire ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh and brought an end to 30 years of de facto self-governance in the enclave.
I am currently in Armenia, meeting regularly with the people displaced from the enclave. Many left the Nagorno-Karabakh in haste and did not bring any belongings with them. The Armenian government has been distributing cash and providing assistance with accommodation where possible. However, much more needs to be done ahead of the winter to ensure people are properly sheltered. Canada was one of the first foreign states to announce its financial donation to Armenia, and there will be an ongoing need for support in the months ahead.
In my meetings with displaced people scattered throughout Armenia, I have not met a single person who is considering returning to Nagorno-Karabakh anytime soon. They deeply miss their homes, especially in the face of the many everyday challenges they now encounter, but in the wake of Azerbaijan's military offensive and three decades of conflict before that, they have no trust in Baku's rule and are too afraid to return. They are also not ready to trust the Russian peacekeepers after what some have described to me as a failure to respond to months of tensions, multiple attacks, the blockade and the recent war.
How to encourage Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to consider returning remains an open question. Some foreign states have suggested sending a multinational mission responsible for monitoring the situation on the ground, which could be an option. Despite considerable pressure from western states, we have not seen any sign that Azerbaijan is ready to consider this proposal.
A starting point could be confidence-building measures to rebuild trust, such as Azerbaijan allowing people the opportunity to visit their homes and the graves of their family members. This process could start even now, possibly with the support of the International Committee of the Red Cross organization and the UN agencies present in the region. This could also facilitate visits by those who left Nagorno-Karabakh without any belongings or who left their documents and savings there.
Still, the biggest priority is resuming peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The fall of Nagorno-Karabakh did not automatically resolve all the problems between these two south Caucasus neighbours. Armenia and Azerbaijan have never established diplomatic ties, they do not engage in trade, and their citizens cannot freely visit each other. Their shared borders are lined with kilometres of military positions, and their border skirmishes have resulted in more casualties in the past three years than fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh itself.
Talks over the past year have encompassed various critical topics, including border demarcations and Baku's aspiration to open a special route through southern Armenia to its exclave bordering Turkey. Both are potential flashpoints left to fester.
The United States and the European Union are the primary actors who can revive the talks. Over a year ago, western mediation took centre stage in diplomacy when Russia became too embroiled in the war in Ukraine and could no longer allocate the political and military resources required to serve as a key foreign mediator. This has been a challenging process, but it marked the first time in over two decades that Armenia and Azerbaijan were meeting more frequently, with real progress in their substantial discussions.
In conclusion, I would like to commend Canada for becoming the first non-EU country to send its representatives to join the EU mission to Armenia. The mission plays a crucial role in patrolling the areas near the front lines along the Armenian-Azerbaijani state borders. Canada will now be a country receiving regular updates about the situation on the ground. Hopefully, Canada can build on its participation by supporting efforts to secure Azerbaijan's co-operation with the mission. Such co-operation is necessary to stabilize the situation on the ground, and also to promote co-operation over shared resources that do not adhere to border lines.
Azerbaijan's decision to co-operate with the mission could also serve as a significant statement of its readiness to avoid any tensions with Armenia.
I will be happy to discuss these ideas in the question-and-answer session.
Thanks again for having me for your session.