Evidence of meeting #79 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was nagorno-karabakh.
A recording is available from Parliament.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
I'm not an expert, but just really quickly.... I understand that Russia and Ukraine have also not signed on to the Rome Statute, yet the Canadian government is pushing for that mechanism to be used in that situation. One would think that this would work.
Mr. Waters, do you have anything you could add to that?
Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual
I think I agree that the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court is the way to proceed, and I commend the Armenian authorities for indicating their willingness to join the Rome Statute. That's a really positive move, and Armenia will be one of the few countries in the former Soviet space that will be party to the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. That's actually pretty exciting, and it's an important step that Armenia has indicated it will be taking.
The other thing I would say is that Azerbaijan has indicated, at least on one occasion, that it would investigate a suspected war crime. Let's not be naive. The chances of the Aliyev regime successfully investigating, let alone prosecuting, its own crime are remote. Nonetheless, the international community should set that as an expectation for Azerbaijan: that it does investigate credible allegations of war crimes, including the fact that many Armenians will claim that prisoners of war from Armenia remain in Azeri hands.
There are ongoing potential international humanitarian violations that should be responded to by Azerbaijan, as well as by potential international justice mechanisms.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you.
Mr. Chair, do I have time to ask Mr. Sahadeo as well?
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
I'm sorry, Mr. Sahadeo. If you have a brief intervention....
Professor, As an Individual
I would agree with that. I think the greatest scale of violations took place in the 2020 war, so the ICC would be a place to bring that forward.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
Thank you.
We'll now go to the second round, which will provide three minutes each.
We'll start off with MP Epp.
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to all the witnesses for their excellent testimony.
When I listen, the question I ask myself is this: What are the elements that are needed for lasting peace? Obviously, the international community calls for negotiations at the peace table, but the events of September have to be placed in the context of at least the last 30 years—back to the fall of the Soviet Union—and also, as one of the witnesses mentioned, two centuries of ethnic conflict.
The territorial control back-and-forth seems to be very clearly a result of the relative strengths of the two parties, Azerbaijan and Armenia, within the context of their international allies or opponents.
I'll start my questions with Mr. Waters.
You talked about this being the time for Canada to impose sanctions to set an example for our “like-mindeds”. What is the forum for the like-mindeds to come together to put together those lasting elements for peace? Obviously, the international community can't impose peace. The two parties have to be there. However, unless the international community seems to be aligned, peace seems to be very elusive. What's the forum that includes Russia, Iran and Turkey, as well as the EU and the U.S.?
Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual
The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe—the OSCE—through its Minsk Group at one point potentially played a positive role here. Unfortunately, it no longer does.
There is a role for Canada with like-minded allies to act on the stage of the south Caucasus. That includes Canada's participation in the EU monitoring mission, which I commend. Canada also has strong and formal relations with the Council of Europe and the European Union, and of course we have our most important ally to the south. It's slightly to the north, here in Windsor, but I think my point is clear.
I think there are international fora. With Turkey being a NATO ally, it becomes much more difficult to have a dialogue with Iran. I think Iran is an important regional player that at some point has to at least be reckoned with in this regard. It's not easy. There's no obvious international forum for doing so.
Mr. Chair, if I could, I confused—
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
I'm going to follow up with a question and then allow you to continue, Mr. Waters.
I'm sorry. Continue. It just fell out of my head.
Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual
I apologize. I kept talking. It's an occupational hazard.
Conservative
Dave Epp Conservative Chatham-Kent—Leamington, ON
I understand Ambassador Rae's comment that this has been a “failure of global diplomacy”. How great is the risk of a following failure if we don't get our global act together, particularly with the southern corridor over to Nakhchivan?
Liberal
Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Windsor, As an Individual
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I think there is a real risk. The Aliyev regime has said that one way or another, Azerbaijan will have control there. I think there's a real risk, and there could be a risk of contagion.
Mr. Chair, I did a quick check. Armenia—I believe it was earlier this month—ratified the International Criminal Court statute. I think that's worth checking by the clerk of the committee, so that there can be clarity around that. I didn't want to do too much of an investigation online, but I think Armenia actually ratified it.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
Thank you, Professor Waters.
We next go to MP Chatel. You have three minutes.
October 30th, 2023 / 12:50 p.m.
Liberal
Sophie Chatel Liberal Pontiac, QC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
I have a question for the three professors here today.
What position do these two key players, Russia and Turkey, take on the exodus of 100,000 Armenian civilians?
Next, how can those two powers consider resolving the conflict after the September 19th aggression? What is the geopolitical situation, given these two major players?
Mr. Ratelle can answer first, then it will be Mr. Sahadeo's and Mr. Waters' turn.
University of Ottawa, As an Individual
When it comes to Russia, it had the potential to stop ethnic cleansing with its peace mission. Yet it chose not to fulfill its mission on the ground. Russia seems to be moving further and further away from its role in the South Caucasus, which really creates an opportunity for Canada to play a more active role and exercise greater leadership in the region.
Turkey, for its part, offers Azerbaijan direct support through military and economic means. In fact, it is significantly more supportive of the idea of a greater Azerbaijan than it is of a return of the Armenian population to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Professor, As an Individual
Russia's interests have definitely lessened. When Pashinyan came into power in 2019 and opened a pro-western orientation, Russia was hostile to that. That could have been one reason that it decided to back away from Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020 and 2022. Of course, there are the challenges with Ukraine.
Russia's kept its hands in. It's condemned Armenia for joining the ICC. Armenia is trapped now. Iran is probably the closest geopolitical ally in the region.
Russia could be rather dangerous. It's turning its attention to Georgia right now. There's not as much of a void as we think. The Russians are still there, ready to act, but they are diverted at the moment. This is why Turkey's actions.... We think Turkey wouldn't have operated this way in supporting Azerbaijan had Russia objected more formally as Armenia's ally and as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Going back to the previous question on the Zangezur corridor, Turkey is seized with linking the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea to be able to move through the Eurasian corridor. They're not going to let that opportunity pass. This is a critical point when we have to try to figure out how we can work this peacefully.
Pashinyan's trying to do that right now. That's his whole peace plan: to open these transport corridors under the sovereign control of these countries, but with the understanding that they're open. Can we get the Turks to buy into that? Can we convince the Azerbaijanis to do it? I think that's the moment that we're facing now.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
You're out of time, MP Chatel. My apologies.
We next go to MP Bergeron. You have a minute and a half.
Bloc
Stéphane Bergeron Bloc Montarville, QC
I'll be brief.
Here is my first question: in your opinion, why didn't Georgia take part in the peace talks?
My second question concerns borders, which are being discussed at great length. I had the opportunity to speak with European observers, who told us that the border was not well defined in several cases, but that in some cases it was well defined and Azerbaijani troops were indeed on the Armenian side. What do you say?
Professor, As an Individual
I could talk about Georgia for hours, but I have one minute.
Georgia's government right now is approaching a more Russian orientation. They also rely upon Azerbaijan for gas supplies. After the 2008 war, they switched a lot of their energy supplies to Azerbaijan, but they try to keep good relations with both countries. I think their play now is to stay out of it. They have bigger domestic problems, including the hundreds of thousands of Russians who are in Georgia right now.
I'm sorry; what was the second part of your question?
Professor, As an Individual
The frontier line right now is imaginary. It depends on what these countries say it's going to be, so we do see Azerbaijan basically not being willing to enter into peace talks with a precondition that they accept the frontiers of Armenia.