This is a great question that we're also asking ourselves. What are the conditions we need?
The first one is a fundamental dialogue between the government, the regime and other sectors of the population. That means political sectors, the opposition and civil society. That is fundamental, because one of the keys to making a transition successful, as we've learned in other contexts, is creating conditions that incentivize individuals who are clinging to their posts, particularly if they have committed, for example, human rights abuses. We need to incentivize them to leave their posts, but we also need to provide justice and truth in a way that is fair to whatever victims they have left in their path. It is fundamental to have those sorts of conversations in order to set up the conditions for a successful transition of state control, going from the hands of one regime into those of a democratically elected leader.
Even before getting to that, there are fundamental steps that this government could continue to take, which it has started taking, and could expand dramatically.
The first one that I would point to is civic space. We have seen a push-and-pull dynamic in the first weeks of this transition. Political prisoners are released, but then they're recaptured. Political prisoners are released, but then new individuals are apprehended. Checkpoints still remain in an ad hoc way to check people's cellphones to make sure they don't have the wrong information, the wrong communication or a news story that might signal they are against one side or another. Opening up that civic space is a really fundamental first step. Certainly, this is a role for the international community to play.
Additionally, the humanitarian side of this is one we rarely think about, but it is a fundamental factor. Stabilizing daily life in Venezuela for those who have stayed and for those who potentially return is the fundamental way through which a transition can happen.
You have to take care of steps one, two and three before we can think about a more dramatic change.