Sure. As you can imagine, many variables go into that assessment. Starting with the gulf coast, right now we would expect maybe up to 500,000 or 600,000 barrels a day of supply that used to go to China to start showing up more consistently in the U.S. That would be larger than the amount of Canadian oil that currently goes to the gulf coast, as opposed to the Midwest. It's not that we'd lose market share. It's just that prices might weaken a bit for Canada in that scenario.
In a high case for Venezuela, there's a risk that we could lose market share on the gulf coast and that our barrels would need to go to other markets, such as Asia. On the Asian side, the events in Venezuela and the events in Iran certainly reinforce appetite for oil diversity and market hedging in the Asian markets, particularly in China, India and Korea, because those are the three countries that have heavy conversion refineries—similar to what exists on the U.S. gulf coast—that can process Canadian heavy oil or Venezuelan heavy oil. All three countries have fairly strong demand growth, particularly China and India.
