Thank you, Madam Chair.
Good afternoon, Madam Chair and members of the committee. My name is Gary Corbett. I am a vice-president of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada. Before that, I held a position as a mining engineer with the Department of Natural Resources Canada.
We are pleased to be here today to offer you our views on the demographic challenges of the federal public sector. Joining me is Ms. Denise Doherty-Delorme. She is the institute's head of research.
Knowledge and innovation play a critical role in determining the economic and the social prosperity of Canada. Investment, jobs, incomes, and our society are directly impacted by the strength and vitality of the knowledge-based sectors and institutions. Canada is not alone in facing revolutionary changes. Every nation, province or state, and city is considering or implementing strategies to respond to the challenges and opportunities presented by the knowledge-based economy.
According to the President of the Public Service Commission's testimony, which we heard on March 22, there has been a shift to more knowledge-based workers in the public service. This shift has resulted in an increase in requirements that has pushed the average age of entry to 35. Moreover, the public service is, on average, older than the general labour force, it will be affected by the baby boom retirement wave sooner than the general labour force, in 2003-04 it had an average age of retirement of almost 58, and it will see the rate of retirement peak in 2012-13.
In 2006, knowledge-based workers, such as scientific and professional workers, and those in the computer systems area represented 58% of federal workers in the core public administration. During the mid-1990s they represented only 41%.
Will the Government of Canada be able to keep up with its staffing if the current age of entry is 35 and the age of retirement is 58? Will all the departments and agencies be able to fulfill their mandates? Today I present the current situation in the public sector and suggest ways to respond to its recruitment and retention challenges.
On the supply side, unemployment is at an all-time low and there is an acute shortage of talent. Employment has been on an upward trend, with average monthly gains of 42,000 new jobs. The competition for employees continues to be tight. According to a report by Deloitte, a shortage of workers exists in science educators to teach the next generation of chemists, health care professionals of all stripes, and design engineers with in-depth technical and interpersonal skills.
Furthermore, exacerbating the problem is the length of time it takes the public service to hire new employees. We have anecdotal evidence that the recruitment process can take up to 18 months. In addition, too many positions are staffed with term and sunset positions, as my colleague from the other union pointed out. Given the opportunity, these new hires may leave for permanent positions elsewhere. Critical talent is scarce and about to become much more so because of two looming trends: the retirement of the baby boomers and the growing skills gap.
On the baby boomers issue, in just a few years an emerging trend will force organizations to pay attention to their critical talent--the retirement of baby boomers, the first crop of which, according to Deloitte, will retire in 2008. The impact will soon be felt. In the public sector, countries such as Canada, Australia, and the United States could lose more than a third of their government employees by 2010. Retirees are also draining much of the working blood out of the health care system, with shortages of nurses and pharmacists being particularly acute.
According to Statistics Canada--as shown on the graph on page 4 of your brief--in the workforce as a whole, the median age among employed women rose from 37 in 1995 to 40 in 2006. Among men it went from 38 to 40. The workforce in the core public administration is much older than in the general workforce. This should be worrisome to Canadians. Among women, the median age rose from 40 in 1995 to 44 in 2006. Among their male counterparts, it went from 44 to 46. In addition, within the core public administration, individuals aged 45 and over accounted for just over half, or 52%, of the total in 2006, compared with just under 39% in the workforce as a whole.
According to the policy research initiative, one in three permanent employees in the federal public service, Canada's largest employer, is 50 years of age or older. Retirement of managers has already started and may peak as early as 2009. For other groups in the federal public service, retirements are expected to peak between 2012 and 2014.
The study also looked at the behavioural differences across employment categories in the federal public service when making the decision to retire. While the average retirement age for all federal employees is between 57 and 59, employees in management, administration, technical and science, and professional categories are more likely than other groups to work beyond the minimum requirements to retire without penalty.
As you can see by figure 2 on page 6 of your brief, the hiring age in the federal public service has been getting higher over the last ten years. For instance, the percentage of new indeterminate appointments under the age of 30 decreased by 33% from 1992 to 2003. Meanwhile, the same percentage of employees appointed at the age of 40 and higher increased by 54% in the same period. There's a shortage of talent.
Many colleges and universities are having trouble meeting the demand for qualified candidates. According to Deloitte again, institutions struggle with limited capacity, obsolete educational models, declining education standards, and the general shift amongst students away from hard-skilled disciplines such as science and engineering.
In fact, the U.S. Department of Education estimates that 60% of all new jobs in the 21st century will require skills that are possessed by only 22% of young people now entering the job market.
Four industries in particular will suffer a mass exodus of employees, among them the public sector. The shortage of workers is not just one of retiring baby boomers. A massive skills gap makes it worse. According to NASA projections, for example, in the U.S., colleges will graduate 198,000 science and engineering students to fill the shoes of over two million U.S. baby boomers scheduled to retire before 2008.
In other areas of specialized education, such as information technology, universities simply can't keep up with demand.
According to a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers, there is a skills shortage across the country. On a positive note, the Pulse survey of 277 private company CEOs also found that private companies are taking steps to retain their skilled, trained workers. Eight-five percent of companies polled will increase their focus on retention in the coming year. But how will that play out for the public sector?
According to Deloitte, the shortage of workers is not just one of retiring baby boomers but a massive skills gap that makes it worse. Perhaps the most disturbing factor of all, though, is declining educational standards. Many high schools are not keeping pace with increased complexity and rapid technological change facing organizations today. Others are simply not graduating enough students. In some provinces, only 70% of students graduate from high school.
The federal science and technology community secretariat in 2006 surveyed 205 science managers in the ten science-based departments and agencies. The findings revealed that two-thirds of the respondents believe that the financial resources provided will not be sufficient to meet anticipated HR needs in their departments. They also anticipate difficulty in recruiting staff in research, applied science, and technical services.
A summary of the survey suggests that researchers will be the most difficult to recruit and retain over the next three years, and the major factor to recruitment is budget constraints.
Almost 70% feel that the financial resources they will receive over the next three years will not be sufficient to meet their HR requirements. They also mention the shortage of qualified candidates as the second largest concern. There is a significant difference in the compensation offered to more experienced or mid- to senior-level scientists in comparison with the private sector and academia.
Uncompetitive remuneration and availability of facilities and/or equipment cause many scientists to leave the public sector early or midway through their careers. It is difficult to replace them.
What is the federal government's response? When the President of the Public Service Commission was asked by this committee last week to address the issue of recruitment and retention, she spoke of the PSC's mission and mandate, which is staffing. Yet she stated that the PSC can only speak to its experience to date on the supply side of the numbers: 19.5 million visits on the website jobs.gc.ca, a screening tool that processed 920,000 applications between April 2006 and January 2007. The institute would like to point out that the number of hits on a website alone is not an indicator of how well the federal government is dealing with this recruitment and retention issue.
In order for each and every department and agency to meet the expectations of the Canadian public, they must continue to attract and retain professionals. A critical mass of talented, highly educated people is needed in each domain to produce the synergy required to achieve results. Yet many departments and agencies are already understaffed. Professionals in the public service are already overstretched as a result of cutbacks in personnel since the early 1990s.