Evidence of meeting #20 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was budget.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Again, that's a very good question.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Do you have the resources to conduct such a study, do you think?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
If I were to undertake the costing of such an important and complex issue, I would certainly have to drop other aspects of my mandate.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Without dropping aspects of your mandate, if additional resources were provided to make it possible to do that job, would it then not impact your mandate?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We could certainly look at ways of doing that. Given that it's a multi-dimensional issue, I'm not sure that we would have an estimate that would be robust, but we could probably come up with a reasonable approximation of the multiple costs.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Away from housing, obviously there's a toxic drug issue, and 27,000 Canadians have died in the last six years. Have you done any costing around criminalization?
There was a report done by experts on the substance use task force, and they quoted that the cost was $6.4 billion just in policing alone in 2017. Here we are, five years later. Has the PBO looked at the cost of criminalizing people who use substances, given that this expert task force of Health Canada says that criminalizing people who use substances is causing more harm than good?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We have done costings of repealing some mandatory minimum penalties on some types of offences, but we have not looked at the cost of criminalizing some drug offences.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Not at the moment, but if there's a desire from the committee to have our office look at that, we could certainly at least consider and try to determine if it's feasible for us to do that, and, if so, to undertake that kind of work.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Robert Gordon Kitchen
Thank you, Mr. Johns.
We'll now go to our second round, starting with Mr. McCauley for five minutes.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
Welcome back. It's good to see you again.
We've had a lot of witnesses in the last little while on the shipbuilding issue. We heard Irving this week say that their costing is very different from the government's. We've heard various witnesses talk about steel inflation and inflation from COVID, although I do note that steel futures have dropped dramatically and that copper is dropping as well.
How difficult would it be for you to update the previous CSC and AOPS costing for this committee?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's certainly something that we could do. In the absence of significant new information, I am not certain that our costing would be significantly different. The reason is that I am very confident, in fact, that our previous costing was accurate and strong. It's certainly something we'd be happy to reconsider if the committee wishes us to do so.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
Okay. I won't waste your time, then. I was going to actually ask for a motion to do that, but it doesn't sound like much has changed.
What do you think, then, of the comments we've heard from other witnesses about catastrophic inflation in steel and copper prices and cost rises from COVID? Are they valid comments, or comments to be taken with a grain of salt?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Well, we have done a sensitivity analysis, should there be, for example, a one- or two-year delay in the construction of these ships. We have estimates for that, so if COVID really did end up delaying the construction of these ships, there's a sensitivity analysis that indicates how much this would mean in terms of cost increases.
It's true that the costs of materials have increased, but if the committee wishes us to revise our cost estimate, we can certainly do that.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
Actually, if you don't think it's going to be that material, then I won't ask you to do that.
TBS vote 10 is always an issue for me. Traditionally, it has been $5 million for a decade. It was $3 million, $5 million, and then we saw it balloon to $152 million in the main estimates.
When we had TBS here, they said, “Well, we can't tell you what it's for because we don't know yet, and if we do know, we don't yet know how much it's going to cost.” That sets off my alarm bells.
Do you think it's proper to have that money in a vote 10 instead of putting it into departments and doing horizontals, where Parliament can actually oversee and vote on specific initiatives?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I think that if departments know how much they need for a horizontal initiative, it certainly is more transparent to allocate that funding to each and every one of these departments so that it's clear when you, as parliamentarians, are asked to vote on it. If the Treasury Board Secretariat or Treasury Board allocates that to a central vote, it is probably because they don't know how to allocate the funds. Otherwise, it would be highly preferable to allocate these amounts to specific departments.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
That they don't know how to allocate it tells me that they haven't fully developed it. Would it not be better, then, to put it into the supplementary estimates (A) or supplementary estimates (B) if it's not developed?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's probably preferable, but again, there might be other reasons leading ministers and the government to put that in a horizontal vote, but—
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
It certainly does not do a favour for transparency or for parliamentarians' ability to vote properly on government spending.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It might be more convenient, but it's not more transparent.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
You commented about the alignment of the estimates and the budget.
I'm wondering if you could comment. We've studied estimates reform a lot. We saw in the Senate, I think last month, that Treasury Board said they're basically abandoning efforts to reform the estimates. What do you think that says about efforts for transparency or for parliamentarians or taxpayers to actually follow the dollar and hold this government and future governments to account?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Well, it certainly indicates that it is not a high priority for the government to have these two processes aligned. Aligning these two important documents and processes would certainly improve transparency and make your collective job easier, but that's all I can say at this point.
Conservative
Kelly McCauley Conservative Edmonton West, AB
With regard to the next budget date, even though they don't have legislation, I know Australia, since the First World War, has had the same budget month every single year, except for one. Many OECD countries have fixed dates.
It's not a difficult issue to have a fixed budget date, is it?
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
No, its not difficult. It certainly is possible.
As you pointed out, there are other countries that do that, or, if they do not have fixed dates, they have a short window in which the budgets are tabled. It certainly is possible, and it's something that I know many public servants who work on budgets would be very happy with.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Robert Gordon Kitchen
Thank you, Mr. McCauley, and thank you, Mr. Giroux.
We'll now go to Mr. Bains for five minutes.