Government Operations Committee on Dec. 1st, 2022

[Yves Giroux]

It varies widely, and it depends on the specific sector and on the project. I haven't looked at ArriveCAN, so I can't comment specifically on that case.

However, as you may be aware, I've done cost estimates in a variety of sectors, including National Defence procurement, which I think I talked about at this committee. The cost estimates vary widely when comparing our institution's and some government departments'.

I'd say the capacity of government departments to provide accurate cost estimates is uneven, to be polite, and it varies widely, to be talking in plainer language.

[Gord Johns, NDP, Courtenay—Alberni, BC]

Where do you think the difficulties arise in developing credible estimates? Do you think there's a link with the increase in lapsed spending that we're seeing as well?

[Yves Giroux]

It's difficult to determine why some government departments seem to have such a hard time coming up with reasonable cost estimates.

Most of the time they're experts in their own area and they should have access to data more easily than we do in our office. They have the expertise. They have the means to get access to data that sometimes we don't, so maybe it's a question of interest or a question of willingness to develop these cost estimates. Maybe these public servants who are asked to do these cost estimates—I don't know—don't have the desire to have substantial or credible cost estimates.

To be honest, it bedazzles me.

[Gord Johns, NDP, Courtenay—Alberni, BC]

Is it possible the departments are basically seeking more than they need because they're struggling to accurately estimate costs?

[Yves Giroux]

There's a structural element to that. By legislation, the department cannot spend more than its authorities. If you are a chief financial officer, a deputy minister or an assistant deputy minister, the last thing you want is to “blow your vote”, as public servants call it, which means spending more than you are budgeted for.

Therefore, there's a natural bias towards asking for slightly more to ensure that you will be able to deliver on your mandate without spending more than what you're authorized to spend.

The system—

[The Chair, Conservative, Kelly McCauley]

I'm afraid I'll have to cut you off there, Monsieur Giroux.

Mr. Chambers, welcome to OGGO.

You have five minutes, please.

[Adam Chambers, Conservative, Simcoe North, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

It's wonderful to see you again, sir.

An welcome, ma'am.

My colleague, Ms. Kusie, started talking about FTEs. Obviously, it's a large and growing expense of the federal government. That's a resource that the government uses to deploy its services to Canadians.

One item I don't hear talked about a lot is productivity metrics. We spend a lot of time talking about how to encourage the private sector to become more productive. When we're constantly asked for additional resources in spending to increase the size of the public sector, often we're not also asking how we are holding ourselves accountable to ensure, from a productivity perspective, whether we're using new digital tools to help manage some of those costs, that we are delivering the services in the time frames and service standards that we set out for ourselves.

GC InfoBase does not seem to provide a lot of comfort, at least in the recent time, that we are meeting a lot of those service standards across many departments. We don't have to get into each of those issues here, but how would you recommend parliamentarians think about metrics and productivity with respect to a growing public service?

[Yves Giroux]

That's a broad-ranging question.

We looked at one department in particular, which was the Canada Revenue Agency. They strive to be a world-class tax agency—or “strived”; maybe they changed internally. We found that they're average, roughly speaking. However, there doesn't seem to be any productivity metrics or measurements that I'm aware of or that I encountered. That seems to be in good part due to a taboo within the public service that if you try to measure productivity of public servants, it's seen as imposing a quota, like they have to go after that many taxpayers in a given day or week.

Whereas, I think from a manager's perspective, it makes sense to have a sense as to who your good performers are and who you need to work with.

That seems to be absent in the public service. Maybe it exists in some areas, but it doesn't seem to be closely tracked.

Another issue that we looked at was the Indigenous Services Canada and Crown-Indigenous Relations performance metrics—their own metrics. They change them frequently and they don't meet them about half of the time.

The public service seems to have a big problem or taboo about measuring its own progress or success. There are successes, but they seem to be sorely lacking.

[Adam Chambers, Conservative, Simcoe North, ON]

Thank you.

I think Canadians would be okay with some of these issues if the service standards were being met within the service standards that the governments have publicly said they would hold themselves accountable to, but since we've seen operational challenges across many departments, I think this is now forcing parliamentarians to start asking what the productivity metrics are that we ought to be asking the public service to hold themselves to. That's in addition to the Treasury Board now publicly declaring that the new hybrid working environment is here to stay. That's a discussion they're having, obviously, with their employees.

If this is the new way of working, I'm hearing from you that it would be a good idea to start focusing on the output of some of these departments to ensure that we're within the service standard. Is that fair? Should we be asking more questions about productivity? Should we be studying that? Is that something your office would look at, or is that something we should ask another officer?

[Yves Giroux]

That's certainly something that you'd be fully entitled to ask. I would hope that you'd be able to get answers to these questions relatively easily. That's something that as managers in the public service they should be tracking fairly regularly.

As to whether it would be through my office or the Auditor General's office, it would depend on the exact points you have in mind. I think the Auditor General or her office would probably be in a better position. She may not like me for saying that, but I think it's something that would probably fall better within the bailiwick of the AG.

[Adam Chambers, Conservative, Simcoe North, ON]

You just got off her Christmas card list, perhaps.

[Voices]

Oh, oh!

[Adam Chambers, Conservative, Simcoe North, ON]

Thank you, sir.

[The Chair, Conservative, Kelly McCauley]

That's five minutes on the dot.

Mr. Jowhari, you have five minutes, please.

[Majid Jowhari, Liberal, Richmond Hill, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Once again, Mr. Giroux and Madam Vanderwees, welcome to our committee.

Mr. Giroux, you expressed some concern about the increase in lapsed spending. Can you unpack that by specific area? What are your thoughts around what you think the driver is for this lapsed spending?

[Kaitlyn Vanderwees, Analyst, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer]

Thank you for your question.

We see increases in lapses in public health due to COVID spending. We also see increases in lapsed funds in the indigenous portfolio due to the government's increased desire for reconciliation. These are usually related to claims and settlements. In the other areas, such as transport and infrastructure, this could be due to supply chain issues as a result of the pandemic. There were also strong weather events in the north, as mentioned by TBS at a previous OGGO meeting. Outside of that, it's hard to say without departmental results reports.

I'll let Mr. Giroux continue.

[Yves Giroux]

The implications of these lapses can lead to departments not being able to fully deliver on mandates that the ministers and the Prime Minister have given them. For example, if they are not able to fully spend in some specific areas, it may mean fewer land claims that get settled, or it can have impacts on the delivery of health care services to some communities. These are all hypothetical, of course.

Lapses may also mean that departments asked for more than what they really needed, so it does not necessarily mean that it's a bad thing. Personally, as a taxpayer, I'd rather have government departments not spend just for the sake of spending if they don't need all the funds that have been allocated to them. However, it may indicate a mismatch between what government departments planned on spending and what was realistically achievable.

[Majid Jowhari, Liberal, Richmond Hill, ON]

Thank you.

It was interesting that the notion of challenges within the supply chain and specifically labour shortages were highlighted in your response. Can you spend a little bit of time unpacking that for us and the impact on the lapse?

[Kaitlyn Vanderwees]

Thank you.

That was a response from TBS. I could go back and ask them further and get back to you in writing if you would like.

[Majid Jowhari, Liberal, Richmond Hill, ON]

Yes. I would appreciate it if you could do that.

Next, the PBO recently reported that the CPI inflation is solidly on track to return to its 2% target. Can you elaborate on that? We are at 6.8% or 6.9%, I believe, and everybody is anxiously waiting for the next round of results as to inflation. When I read that, I said, “Oh, my God.”

I welcome you here, and I ask that question: Can you shed some light into how we are tracking on the 2%?

[Yves Giroux]

That's an interesting question. I've been asked that a few times in the last several weeks.

We believe that the Bank of Canada probably will continue increasing its rate a little more. That, together with a marked slowdown that we have already seen happening in the world economy, will be contributing to reducing inflationary pressures, together with the supply chain disruptions that are being fixed across the world and energy prices hopefully stabilizing. Those are all the reasons why we think inflation will slowly and gradually return to within the 1% to 3% target range that the Bank of Canada has in mind.

[Majid Jowhari, Liberal, Richmond Hill, ON]

You said “gradually”. Do you have any idea around the length of time that is going to take?

[The Chair, Conservative, Kelly McCauley]

I'm afraid we're not going to have the length of time necessary to answer that.

Perhaps you could submit it in writing, because that's our five minutes.

[Some hon. members]

Oh, oh!

[The Chair, Conservative, Kelly McCauley]

I'll allow Mr. Giroux three more seconds the next time around.

We have Ms. Vignola. I am going to combine this two and a half minutes and the next. You'll lose your second two and a half minutes.

It will be the same for Mr. Johns.

You get one more at five minutes, and that will be it.

You have five minutes, please, Ms. Vignola.