Procedure and House Affairs Committee on Nov. 17th, 2011

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

I see.

Would you have recommended this change?

[Wayne Smith]

It wouldn't be appropriate for Statistics Canada to come forward recommending that the process of allocating seats in Parliament be modified.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Sorry, fair enough, when you put it that way.

I was more thinking of your analyzing this with your staff. I'm assuming you constantly review things to make sure they're up to date and modern. You do best practices, check what's happening with other G-8 countries and in the Commonwealth, etc. So I was just curious as to whether this was something you could've had on a work plan and said, “We could really improve something that's important to the government; we'll make that recommendation.”

[Wayne Smith]

Again, that's not something we would normally have proactively recommended. If we were asked the question we would certainly answer it to the best of our ability, as we were asked, which is the best of the alternative sources, but we did not proactively go forward and suggest considering using the population estimates rather than—

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Smith. That's fine; you've answered the question.

My next question is this. Given that the best claim to fame that the new formula has is that it's used in transfer payments, which is pretty important and requires a certain level of acceptability by everyone who is a non-partisan figure, yadda, yadda, yadda.... You know where I'm going. Given that this change is being made and you think this is an improvement, is it your intention to advise the government that it should change the transfer payment formula too, since this is a better number?

And my other question is this. If it did that, would you say, “Yes, indeed, that would be an improved formula as opposed to what we do now”?

[Wayne Smith]

The estimates are already the numbers used, and the numbers used in transfer payments are the estimates, the ones that are being proposed to be used in Bill C-20, so those are the ones that are used for transfer payments, and we indeed do believe they're a better basis, for the reasons that I've just presented. They're a better basis for making those allocations.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Do other parliaments also use this number in their calculations? When they're trying to find the figure that's most accurate, whether it's for this purpose or other purposes, is this the number they use now?

[Wayne Smith]

I know practice varies tremendously, but I can't really speak in any detail about what is done in other countries. The United States uses unadjusted data. I don't know whether my colleagues are better placed to answer about other countries. We're kind of world leaders in terms of this process of adjusting censuses for undercoverage. So I certainly think we're particularly capable in this domain, but I don't think we're unique in it.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Now, will you also be doing a review to determine whether the actual numbers confirm what you had projected? I mean, right now everything's projection. You can only assume this will be a better number. Proof—as close to proof as possible—would be down the road. Are you planning that kind of follow-up to satisfy yourself that your projected improvements are real?

[Wayne Smith]

We have always published all the details. When we get to the point where we actually have the adjusted census numbers, we look at our estimates program and how well it has performed, what the degree of closure is, what the error of closure is, and the difference between our estimates and what was considered to be the final population for 2011. All of that information is published.

We also have a federal-provincial committee. Obviously, the provinces are very interested in the quality of these estimates—

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

I'm sorry, I'm short on time and I don't mean to be rude.

Are there any provinces that have any concerns about the new change?

[Wayne Smith]

Not a single province has voiced any concern to me at this juncture.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Okay, and that includes territories too, obviously.

[Wayne Smith]

It includes territories.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

How's my time, Chair?

[The Chair, Conservative, Joe Preston]

You have two minutes left, David.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Beautiful. We'll just keep right on going.

What would the difference in terms of the seats be, or the outcome? How dramatic is the change in terms of the actual resulting number in the formula? Is this a dramatic change, or a minor change?

[Wayne Smith]

I can't answer that. I don't know. My sense is that the differences are not large enough, if you're dividing by 111,000. In most cases, the absolute differences won't be large enough to have a meaningful impact in most places, but I haven't actually looked at the calculations. I can't really look at 2011, in any case, because I don't have the other pieces yet.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

From a numbers point of view, the government's previous bill—and I'm not trying to drag you into the politics of it, I totally respect the lines; however, the previous government bill had a different resulting increase in seats for the provinces, and it was apparently because it was based on a previous census.

Now they're using updated numbers, and I'm still not quite sure what they mean by “updated numbers”, because it's only a matter of a few months between the change the government ran on Bill C-12 and their coming into power and saying here's a new bill, we've got new numbers.

Just strictly from a numbers point of view, can you explain to me what's new?

[Wayne Smith]

I'm simply not aware of the other piece of legislation, so I'm not able to answer your question.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

Sorry, but you must have been consulted on that bill too, I would think.

[Wayne Smith]

Perhaps Statistics Canada was consulted. I wasn't the chief statistician at the time. I'm not aware of it. I'm not sure whether either of my colleagues have any....

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

I'm sorry, no, they weren't, or no, they don't know?

[Johanne Denis, Director, Demography, Statistics Canada]

We weren't consulted.

[David Christopherson, NDP, Hamilton Centre, ON]

You were not contacted on the previous bill?