I think you might well be correct, but I just wanted to make it clear that it's different from saying there's no direct relation and no evidence.
The driving factor may well be the case that there are other factors, especially cumulatively, that might account for more. Our concern is that each individual has the right to vote, and that the particular impact in some groups, as you've said in your own language from a theoretical standpoint is:
the voters most likely to be negatively affected by voter-identification laws are those who are interested in voting, but do not know and or have the proper identification. This population may include groups such as first-time voters...or those whose IDs have recently expired,
—for example.
You also say, and I appreciate this, because I think it's a very balanced paper, and you're reporting your findings:
This is not to say that actually requiring a more strict form of identification is not on its face discriminatory; it is, and the laws deserve to be scrutinized. But, our question—
—your research question—
—is whether these laws have significantly reduced turnout.
Based on your analysis, you say no.
Our concern is there are multiple reasons we would be concerned with voter ID. Those include the fact that adding to the burden of any set of individuals, individuals on their own or groups of individuals, is itself a problem in our system, especially when there's no evidence of voter fraud, as opposed to other forms of gaming the electoral system to justify upping the ante in terms of voter ID requirements.
I just wanted to make it very clear that I have no objections to your conclusions. I just don't think they prove as much as I think my colleagues over there wanted them to.
May I simply ask whether you think this matters? You've emphasized, “we hypothesize that voters with higher levels of interest in politics are more likely to vote,”—I think that's probably a reasonable supposition—“and are less affected by voter-identification laws.”
Our concern is people who may not be all that engaged, who may only get engaged around election time. We have a system here whereby people can actually turn up on election day and vote, whereas in the U.S., I understand, unless things have changed, by and large you have to have registered in advance, if I'm not mistaken.