Evidence of meeting #4 for Procedure and House Affairs in the 43rd Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was election.
A recording is available from Parliament.
October 22nd, 2020 / 11:20 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
Good morning. Thank you for your extremely enlightening presence.
Earlier, you said that if an election had been called yesterday, you would have been able to meet the challenge. I think there's no doubt about that. But what would your biggest challenge have been? I understand that you wanted a longer election campaign so that you could be better prepared for election day.
What do you think your main challenge would have been, if it had happened yesterday?
11:20 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
It depends on several factors, including the duration of the campaign. However, the main concern is probably the recruitment of staff. We need to recruit some 250,000 people for a national election. This is a huge effort, and the effectiveness of our services depends on it. So that would be my main concern.
If an election were called tomorrow morning, I would also be concerned about our ability to serve voters by mail to the level they expect. If we had difficulty providing sufficient mail-in kits, voters would have other options for voting. We would then give priority to those with health problems. This is what was done in New Zealand, where only voters with health problems could vote by mail.
So there are ways to manage problems. What I'm saying is that an election would be possible and safe, but not without difficulty.
11:20 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
I see.
Voting by mail is new, isn't it?
Was it possible to vote by mail in the last election?
11:20 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
Yes, absolutely. It dates back to the 1930s or 1920s, I don't remember. Before I was born, in any case. You could vote by mail. However, it is used very little. We received about 55,000 ballots in the mail, 35,000 of which were from Canadians overseas. So it's a very small number.
11:25 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
Help me understand this. Let's assume that the two days of the vote take place on the weekend and that your recommendations are respected. People could vote by mail and you would receive all of this. Then there would be a very high number of mail-in votes, which could change the look of the election, obviously.
What do you think the percentage of mail-in votes would be?
11:25 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
We estimate that approximately 4 million to 5 million voters would vote by mail.
11:25 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
That's quite a large number.
So we call an election, and on Saturdays and Sundays people vote.
What do we do with the ballots? Do you count them on the spot or send them elsewhere to be counted?
11:25 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
The strategy for handling such a large volume of ballots is to count most of them locally, as a team. Dividing this into 338 counting teams, this would be done locally. Ballots would also be sent to Ottawa, but that would be a minority.
11:25 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
I see.
Let's say I'm a candidate—I plan to run again in the next election—and the polls close on Sunday around 5 or 6 p.m., after eight hours of voting. When and how would the votes be counted? In how many days would we have the results?
Please answer as precisely as possible.
11:25 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
Okay, I'll be very specific.
A few days before, the outer envelope can be separated from the inner envelope. I will set this period during the election; this is what is normally done. There are two envelopes in a mail-in ballot: an outer envelope with voter information, a bar code and signature, which are security measures, and the inner envelope, which is anonymous. You can start preparing for the separation beforehand, but the actual vote count would probably start on the weekend and continue on Monday. Even if the period is not extended by the change I am proposing, the count would probably take an extra day or two.
11:25 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
That's why the work is divided into 338 teams. We can assume that there will be 10,000 or 15,000 ballots per riding, which is manageable. We're not talking about millions of ballots.
11:25 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
I understand. Thank you for this information. I am particularly grateful for it, because we are really in an unprecedented context.
You said you wanted to adapt to the different realities that exist in Quebec's nursing homes, the CHSLDs. What are they?
11:25 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
At the moment, there are seniors' residences or long-term care facilities that you can't get into. In some cases, there are restrictions on access, but this is not the case across the country. The magnitude of the pandemic and the way places are structured varies from place to place.
In some cases, long-term care homes would only proceed by mail-in voting. This is what will happen in the Toronto by-elections. The local care home authority in Toronto has decided that their staff will distribute the forms. In other cases, there are on-site voting sites, which are not mobile for health reasons, but the candidates' representatives are not on site. I would like, as much as possible, to have these people vote before the last day to minimize the risk of problems.
Currently, the law provides for voting in mobile polls to take place on election day. Holding a poll in CHSLDs and other similar facilities involves a lot of last-minute work.
11:25 a.m.
Bloc
Alain Therrien Bloc La Prairie, QC
All right. You've opened the door to my next question, which is about fraud....
11:25 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota
That's all the time we have, unfortunately, but you can get it in in the next round.
Mr. Blaikie, go ahead, please.
11:25 a.m.
NDP
Daniel Blaikie NDP Elmwood—Transcona, MB
Thank you very much.
We have heard some people say in recent days that Elections Canada is conducting by-elections during the pandemic, so, obviously, it's possible to do these things. We've heard people say there are various provincial elections happening, so, obviously, it's possible to hold a federal election.
I just wonder if you could speak a little bit to the complexity of having to monitor the public health orders in 13 different jurisdictions across the country and the effect of the pandemic being stronger in some places than in others over a large territory and large number of jurisdictions versus the very real challenges of running a provincial election or even a by-election during these times.
11:30 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
That is a very lengthy question. I'll try to answer most of it in the time allowed.
I'll give you a good example. In Brunswick we have only 49 seats provincially and only 10 seats federally. In New Brunswick returning officers in many cases had to assist in delivering vote-by-mail kits and recovering them. That can be done in a province the size of New Brunswick with 49 seats, with 49 returning officers. If you have only 10 seats as you do federally, or if you have larger province as you have with northern Quebec, Ontario or most of the provinces, that is not feasible.
There are different challenges. They had a short election period. That added to their burden, and I'm hoping for a larger one.
If you look at the current by-election in Toronto, that is an entirely different setting. I can tell you that 50% of the workforce in those by-elections comes from neighbouring districts. That is not an option that we have in a general election. When I talk about recruitment challenges, that is a concern. It is not a concern in a by-election, but it would certainly be in a general election.
Finally, you mentioned the different jurisdictions and the public health authorities and the different measures. That's quite right. We do have to work with the provincial and local health authorities and follow and adjust our operations to the evolving procedures and controls that will inevitably vary from time to time during a federal election.
There is a challenge that exists at the national level that does not compare to it provincially or locally.
11:30 a.m.
NDP
Daniel Blaikie NDP Elmwood—Transcona, MB
When Elections Canada launched its special task force that came up with the recommendations you've highlighted in your presentation today, they posted on their website as part of the statement explaining why that task force was there, that Elections Canada has an authority that it's never used before, in conjunction with public health officials, to recommend to the Governor in Council that an election writ be withdrawn either in a particular riding or a number of ridings, possibly regionally, if the public health challenges exceed Elections Canada's ability to safely meet the requirements of the legislation.
Could you flesh that out a little? Presumably, some thinking has been done about what that would look like if such a situation were to occur. Could you speak a little to the conditions that you think might precipitate such an extreme action? Also, what would that look like practically speaking if there were 30 ridings where that were to occur during a general election? Would the election simply be held later? What is the thinking in terms of the consequences for the general election that would proceed and result in some candidates being elected as members, and Parliament having to make do without other members?
What would that scenario look like in your view if Elections Canada were in the position of having to make use of that authority?
11:30 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
Before I get into explaining those scenarios, I think it's fair to say that it would be an extreme situation and one that we would not do lightly. We've never done it, and we've faced very significant challenges in our history and have never cancelled an election. If you go to the authorities in the act, it's an authority that's riding-by-riding appreciation, so it's not for general use.
On a riding-by-riding basis, if the conditions are such that, in my view, it is impractical to conduct the election—and it's a very specific criterion—then I may recommend to the Governor in Council that it be cancelled.
It can also be postponed by a week. That is perhaps less likely in a pandemic situation, because that is not likely to change all that much in a week. In all likelihood if that were to occur, the writ would be withdrawn and replaced within three months by a new writ.
11:30 a.m.
NDP
Daniel Blaikie NDP Elmwood—Transcona, MB
In the meantime there would be no member for that riding. Is that correct?
11:30 a.m.
Chief Electoral Officer, Elections Canada
That is correct.
There would be a vacancy for that riding.
As I said, it's a practical test. Can I offer voting services? Do I have access to polling places, to poll workers?
In all likelihood, if there were an extreme case of a shutdown and people were told by public health authorities to stay home, then that would prevent me from having access to poll workers and offering services to voters, who would be largely at home. That's a very extreme scenario.
11:35 a.m.
NDP
Daniel Blaikie NDP Elmwood—Transcona, MB
Okay.
One of the other issues that's come up is the question of voter disenfranchisement, or people not participating in the election because of fear of coming out during a pandemic.
Do you have information from other jurisdictions or have any estimates been made of the likely impact of the current conditions on voter turnout? Is there any thinking about which kinds of people are mostly likely to stay home and choose not to vote, as opposed to those who would be most likely to go out to cast their ballot despite the circumstances?
11:35 a.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ruby Sahota
Unfortunately, Mr. Blaikie, that's all the time you have, but I wanted your question to be completed at least. Mr. Perrault has that question, and perhaps he can shed some more light on it throughout the course of the meeting.
We've moving into our second round of questions. We will begin with Ms. Vecchio for five minutes, please.