Human Resources Committee on Oct. 24th, 2006

[Stephen Kymlicka]

I think this would stand in proxy for many services. We are in an era of increased specialization. There was a wonderful study out of Acadia University a couple of years ago that pointed out that no society has ever moved from specialization to generalization. Societies always move to increased specialization.

Within the technical services area, this is in spades. So from the point of view of the employer, the availability of the worker who can fit that niche project is fundamentally critical. It's not a question of just simply building the economic base. It's finding the right person at the right time. That is why you're hearing about investing in post-secondary education and those things.

I think there is a second set of the economy that does benefit from a lower taxation rate and provides stable long-term growth. One of the problems with the high-tech sector is that it's very volatile.

It's wonderful. I made a good living at it. I'm not complaining at all. But in terms of government policy, one should look at the majority and where the long-term growth prospects are. Lower taxation is certainly a major part of that.

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

Further to that, I was reading, for example, that the auto industry in the States has to pay substantially more in health care costs for each worker than manufacturers would in Canada. So that's an example of where Canada has invested in providing a service that really relieves the employer to some extent. I think that was the message I was hearing.

Would you not agree that this is a bonus to Canadian employers?

[Stephen Kymlicka]

There's strong evidence that health care, cheaper energy costs, and a few other factors were responsible for the growth of the auto sector in southwestern Ontario. It in essence looked like a subsidy to the U.S. auto manufacturers. It allowed them to get high-quality workers for less than they would otherwise. Whether or not that's a sustainable advantage, given our rising health care costs and what not, is an open question. I think we're at a stage where those costs are starting to consume our tax base. That's not the forum for this committee--

[Denise Savoie, NDP, Victoria, BC]

No, that's next door.

[Stephen Kymlicka]

--but obviously something has to be done about it.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Thank you.

We're pretty much out of time, but there's one question I wanted to ask, and it was raised by one of the other members.

I'm really encouraged to see what's happening in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick and the Maritimes. My parents moved from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia to Ontario, so I never actually got a chance to live here. But I visit here every summer.

I'm going to address this to you, Mr. Kymlicka. What is your thought process in terms of economic prosperity for the Maritimes over the next ten to fifteen years? I'm encouraged to see those numbers of low unemployment, which indicate to me that there's a lot of great things happening.

Do you have any ideas, given the fact that this is your area of expertise?

[Stephen Kymlicka]

There are two issues. Yes, lower unemployment is good, but the size of our workforce is actually decreasing. We've maxed out, and the expectation is that the number of workers available is going to decrease. Yes, immigration will help. If we can eliminate the mandatory retirement age, that would help. So we have an issue there.

I think there are lots of great prospects for the Maritimes. We have a highly motivated workforce. It's not for nothing that in Alberta there's often a preferential hiring policy for Maritimers who are willing to come out. I used to live in Alberta, and I heard it all the time. And we have several industries, not the least of which is transportation and what's happening with our port, that are going to drive the economy here.

So I'm optimistic, but I'm also concerned. We have a shrinking labour force.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

So your issue would be, once again, attracting workers to continue to fuel the economy.

[Stephen Kymlicka]

Absolutely.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Does anyone else want to touch that at all?

Mr. Messenger.

[Keith Messenger]

I would argue that I agree entirely. I would also argue that an additional component to the future prosperity of the Maritimes is going to be productivity. We have a diminishing population; we have lower birth rates. We have an aging population, and while yes, we have all kinds of older workers who would like to continue to work, we also have all kinds of older workers who have earned a very well-deserved retirement. Each individual Nova Scotian, each individual Canadian, will need to be more productive and will need to undertake lifelong learning to continue to improve and adapt, because the world is changing very quickly, and it's changing very quickly right here at home.

So productivity is the number one concern that I would see affecting the prosperity in the next ten to fifteen years.

[Stephen Kymlicka]

I'll make one quick note, just so you understand the magnitude of the problem. The belief is that it takes about 2.1 kids in order to maintain the population. We're currently at about 1.4.

So it's going to get worse. There are no two ways about it.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

No, that's fair, and I think productivity is an issue we face in Canada, by and large, as well.

One last comment, Ms. Bourgeois.

[Andreea Bourgeois]

I'd like to say that I think the economy will perform okay in the future, and it has great potential for growth--but only if immigration in the region increases. Without immigration, we're going to stay at 1.4, that kind of number.

Just to give you the numbers for New Brunswick, because Mr. D'Amours is here, in 2004 there were 800 people who came to New Brunswick; 1,600 left New Brunswick. I'm not saying that all 800 stayed.

[The Chair, Conservative, Dean Allison]

Clearly, we'll be looking for the days when we start taking people from Alberta, and that's all there is to it.

We want to thank you once again for taking the time. This is a very important issue, and, as I say, we do thank you for your insight. I think these are a couple of very key and important issues. The issue of older workers is something this committee has talked about a great deal, as well as productivity and all these other things. Thank you very much.

Once again we move on. We're going to be in Montreal tomorrow and Toronto by the end of the week. We'll be out west sometime in November.

Thank you, once again, for your time and your insight.

The meeting is adjourned.