Mr. Chair and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to be here this morning.
My name is Raymond Sullivan, and I'm the director of the Canadian Housing and Renewal Association, or CHRA.
CHRA, the Canadian Housing and Renewal Association, represents the non-market community housing sector.
Housing starts are not the right metric. We can have high housing starts and a worsening housing crisis at the same time, and we know this because, up until recently, that's exactly what was happening: record-breaking housing starts and, at the same time, rising homelessness and housing unaffordability. How is this? Higher rents and higher purchase prices fuelled more construction.
Two years ago we had a labour shortage. We couldn't find enough skilled tradespeople to work on construction sites. The cost of materials was rising for the same reason: We could not meet demand.
Where are we now? Well now, in a lot of markets, we actually have an oversupply of housing at the high end, yet still a desperate shortage at affordable rates. Housing starts are dropping precipitously in some parts of the country.
I want to note that housing starts are a lagging indicator. Projects that are starting right now were conceived of and initiated years ago. There are even fewer projects being initiated now. Why? It's because rents and purchase prices have levelled off, and that was the intended outcome of government interventions.
However, here is the unintended consequence: Construction of new supply dries up, industry can't make as much money so it slows down, and the market self-corrects. Eventually, the cycle will turn around and begin again, but housing needs are not cyclical; they're constant. Where does that leave us? Well, in the upswing, we saw rising homelessness as more people were completely priced out of the market, and that hasn't gone away. The social, economic and human cost of being unhoused is long-lasting.
We now see construction workers going through an employment roller coaster. Three years ago, it was hard to keep trades on sites because they kept getting better offers from other contractors, and now only the A-list is working because the B-list and the C-list got laid off.
Developers are losing money, sitting on unsold inventory and failed projects, and we still have high rates of homelessness and core housing need. Is that any way for an economy, for a society to manage a basic need and a human right like housing? No.
What is the solution? A big part of the solution is to stabilize the housing market, particularly for the 50% of Canadian households that are most vulnerable to these swings. Households earning median income and below need access to housing that operates outside of the speculative market, non-market housing.
In the 1980s and early 1990s, 15%, 16% or 17% of all housing starts were non-market community housing; today, it's about 3% or 4%. At our peak, non-market community housing represented over 5% of Canada's housing stock. In the mid-1990s the federal government withdrew from this priority, and the share of non-market housing has been slowly declining ever since.
Housing unaffordability has been rising. Rates of homelessness have also been rising. Currently, less than 4.5% of housing is non-market community housing, and it has actually been slipping and dropping, despite investments from the national housing strategy, because those investments were not targeted to housing need and affordability.
We aren't even keeping up with population growth. Non-market community housing is falling behind, at less than 4.5% of the housing stock, yet an additional 15% of households are in core housing need. Add those together, and you get the target we need to aim for: 20% of housing supply as non-market, mission-driven, affordable housing.
We can start by setting a goal to more than double the current share of community housing in the next decade, and to quadruple the stock of indigenous-led community housing. This will protect a significant number of households from the boom-and-bust cycle of the housing market.
Non-market housing does something the private market cannot reliably do: It delivers homes that remain affordable, regardless of interest rates or market cycles, and it is, in effect, the stabilizing backbone that our system currently lacks.
If you're just focusing on housing starts—the number of homes that get built—you're not asking the right questions: For whom do these homes get built? Who can afford to live in them? Whose housing needs are not being met? When government intervenes, is it to produce the right housing starts?
Thank you.