Thank you.
I come to you today from the Refugee Law Lab, a computational research lab based out of York University and Osgoode Hall Law School.
One of our purposes is to use new computational research methods to better understand how the refugee system functions as a system. Today, I'd like to share some empirical findings from an earlier paper on Bill C-12's proposal to transfer some refugee cases from the IRB system to the PRRA system—the proposed new ineligibility rules.
After computationally analyzing over 180,000 Federal Court of Canada files focusing on that refugee case subset, I come today with a very simple warning. If enacted, these provisions are likely to make the refugee adjudication system less efficient and not more efficient. The reason is simple. This bill does an end run around the refugee appeal division of the IRB. The RAD, as we all know, was created by the previous Conservative government, and now that we have the data, we can see the RAD for what it is—an efficiency success story.
Again, as you know, the ineligibility proposal is simple. It does not forbid new categories of people from claiming refugee protection in Canada. Rather, the proposal is to transfer jurisdiction for some refugee cases from the IRB system to the PRRA system.
As we just heard, the IRB is an expert tribunal with well-trained adjudicators, a world-class research directorate, dedicated legal services and massive institutional experience. Refused first-instance decisions can be appealed internally to the RAD.
We think of these often as rights-enhancing measures for refugee claimants, and they of course are, but there is another way to think of this. When the IRB refuses, its refusals are well justified. Its refusals are informed, and errors are caught by the RAD. This means—and this is probably my key point—that the IRB writes decisions that can be well defended in court.
In contrast, the PRRA was always designed to be a last-ditch safety net and not a front door. It's an important part of our refugee system, to be sure, but it's not a thoroughgoing study of the merits of really any case.
As I said, in 2012, the previous Conservative government made this major change. We got the RAD. My view is that there was no greater efficiency change in that period than the RAD. With all the data that we now have, we can see that the 2012 changes protected Canada's refugee system when it came under the greatest stress. We heard about the volume of cases from the IRB this morning.
I circulated some charts, so let me just give the quick hits.
Chart 1 that I've circulated shows the Federal Court's immigration caseload. After the 2012 amendments, the number of refugee cases that ended up in the Federal Court dropped significantly, despite the huge overall increase of refugee claims made in Canada. The RAD protected the court. This protected the system from expensive redos from court hearings, from lawyer fees and from backlogs. The bottom line is that the RAD works.
Chart 3 is maybe the more interesting chart for our purposes and for this bill because it shows what happens when cases do reach the Federal Court. The Federal Court—and again, this is what we just heard from the IRB—upholds RAD decisions about 95% of the time. When the Federal Court looks at an RAD decision, it has a high degree of confidence in that decision. In contrast, if I read the data correctly—and I make some arguments in the paper about how to read it—we're approaching a point where almost 40% of PRRA decisions, when they reach the court, are either overturned or settled, or something else happens.
There are two bottom lines. One, we found that the IRB and the RAD protect the court's caseload. Two, we found that when the PRRA decisions reach the court, they have much higher grant and settlement rates.
My argument is that if Bill C-12 passes as is, Parliament is going to end up transferring cases away from a part of the system that works, and works efficiently, to a part that will cause surges in the workload of the Federal Court.
Maybe in the first instance the IRCC is going to render PRRA decisions faster than the IRB. I don't know. Faster to error, though, is not more efficient. When the system is under pressure, it is more efficient to get it right the first time.
I sense that I am running low on time.