Thank you, Mr. Chair. It's a pleasure to be in front of the committee here. Thank you for being cost-effective and allowing us to do this by video conference. I just got out of surgery yesterday, so I wouldn't have been able to make it otherwise, so my appreciation there.
I'd first like to premise my remarks by saying the crisis in forestry here today is market-driven, and we should not lose sight of that fact. As much as we need as an industry to adapt, as much as we need to work collaboratively and cooperatively with all levels of government--the federal government, provincial governments, and municipal governments--as well as with the emerging first nations governments in different places of Canada, there are very few policy levers that government can do to assist us, because if there is nobody on the other end of the supply chain who is willing or has need for our products, then there's not much sense trying to do a bunch of things, because there's just nobody going to be there buying those products.
I will tell you what industry is doing here on the coast, what the opportunities are that we see in a very short, concise way, and then I will make some suggestions as to government actions and assistance that can be provided. Here on the coast, we would traditionally ship, or have traditionally shipped, about 60% to 65% of our product to the United States. Over the last two and a half years, as we saw the emergence of the subprime mortgage crisis and the beginning sharp decline in U.S. housing starts, as an industry we began to shift away from the U.S. market and away from commodity-based dimension lumber into those markets.
So in 2008 you will find that coastal shipments to the United States dropped to 48%, and that slack was taken up in two ways: one, we curtailed production; and two, we shifted markets. In 2008 we increased our shipments to China, Korea, and other Asian countries from about 6% to 17%. We held steady in Europe. We increased a little bit of our market share in Japan--to 25%--and we changed our product mix, and this is a very instructive piece for you.
As I mentioned earlier, we began to shift away from commodity products and into more high-valued, specialty custom-cut remanufactured products. That's easier for us to do on the coast, and it's actually something that we pursue relentlessly. We have a very diversified, high-valued, commercially driven supply chain in the solid wood and pulp and paper sectors on the coast. From a lumber perspective, our dimension lumber production dropped from what would have been normally about 30% down to 13%, and the increases in other market segments were to the cedar market, to the shop remanufactured, specialty custom-cut markets.
That's important to know in terms of the U.S. market as well, because on the coast we tend to have a big renovation and reconstruction market segment, versus a new-home housing segment. So for the coastal industry we were able to survive a little bit better because we were feeding that renovation market. That now has completely dropped off.
In terms of production, we have 2.5 billion board feet of capacity, and we are now currently running at 1.284 billion in 2008. That number will be under a billion board feet for 2009. You should know that the average market value of coastal products is over $1,000 a thousand board feet. That compares to other parts of the country that would have an average market value of somewhere around $300 to $350, again showing our diversification and high-value supply chain.
Here's what's going on in the States. In our mind, you won't see a recovery in the global recession until you see a recovery of the U.S. housing market. The U.S. housing market, of course, was affected both by the subprime mortgage crunch as well as the resulting recessionary forces across the globe.
There are two things to note about that. President Obama's $275-billion homeowner affordability and stability plan will hopefully forestall some seven to twelve million potential mortgage foreclosures that still exist. There are a number of financial instruments--Alt-A mortgages, preferred mortgages--that still remain out there and that may be affected. We're hoping the home affordability plan will forestall that.
This month the home affordability index in the United States has reached the highest level ever, I think. Because of price reductions and the amount of inventory in the market, homes are now more affordable. The big question is whether people will be able to secure financing to buy homes or stay in their homes. We see some glimmers of hope on that horizon. We wouldn't expect to see anything in terms of recovery until 2010, and the most pessimistic folks might say 2011.
Again, we've got a long row to hoe, but it does look like we may be at the bottom of the trough, and we may start to see an upward trend.
Financial conditions in the coastal industry, like every other segment of the Canadian forest industry, are such that it is bleeding red all over the place. There is very limited capital available for maintenance, and there certainly isn't capital available for any new investments.
That's the snapshot--as concisely as I can give it in the time restraints--about where we see the market. I reiterate, it is the market that is driving this. We should always keep that in mind as we try to craft policy and industry responses to it.
The future of this industry is great. There are a number of supply shocks across the world that bode very well for the Canadian forest industry. These things range from the eventual full implementation of the Russian log tax, to reduced supply of timber because of climate-related problems like the mountain pine beetle. The world is increasingly saying that it won't buy products made from illegally logged forests; there is more pressure to increase sustainable forestry.
Canada is a world leader in sustainable forestry. We've done the hard lifting on that. Other jurisdictions around the world are going to have to do this, and that will take supply out of the market. There's an increased call for more forest conservation because of climate change, biodiversity, and those things. Again, Canada, and particularly British Columbia, has done yeoman's work in terms of getting ahead of this. We have the highest levels of forest conservation anywhere.
There is the permanent closure of capacity, which you're seeing. There is the emergence of carbon credit markets, such as the European Union, which is buying wood pellets and now bioenergy is out-competing pulp and paper there. As we see cap and trade systems come into place, if we do the work correctly there will be carbon credits available for growing forests; that will take some supply out of the market.
On the demand side, there's an increasing demand for green construction. One of the policy levers you, as the Government of Canada, can do is to start building more with wood. It is the most energy-efficient building material, both in terms of its production and its energy efficiency when it's in place.
There's a supply and demand imbalance in Asia, especially China. That creates some opportunities.
And there may be some crop-shifting from our competitors in South America, who will switch crops from forest production into fuel production or, even more important, food production. These things all say the future looks good for us.
What could industry and government be doing right now? I'll list a couple of things. I gather we have a couple of hours, and most of the stuff can come up in questions and answers, so I'll run through it quickly.
We need to continue our joint market access efforts. For you, as the federal government, that means the Canada wood export program, the wood-first policy, the value-to-wood program, and the forest innovation programs that were in the last budget. Those are all great programs. They help drive innovation; they help keep markets open; they help us produce new products and develop new markets; and they also allow us to promote our products in those markets.
I happen to be the chair of the Canada Wood Group, which is the industry group that leads the offshore efforts on market access and market promotion for our products. In our work, we rely heavily on government funding, including provincial government funding in B.C., and industry brings money to the table as well. So we need to continue to work on those markets.
As for products, the money that's being sent to FPInnovations for the innovation and technology piece is very important. We work closely with them. We leverage dollars from the industry and the provincial government, and that's driving product innovation in a wide range of things—from solid wood, to engineered wood, to pulp and paper, to bioenergy. For example, the FPInnovations project for the coast has a five-year program that looks like it could drive $700 million out of—