Thank you, Chair.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Thank you for inviting me to appear before you.
My name is Meredith Lilly, and I have been a professor of international trade at Carleton University since 2016. Prior to that, I served as foreign affairs and international trade adviser to Prime Minister Harper, and I have worked on many of Canada's trade issues and agreements.
In my opening statement, I'd like to focus on the government's immediate plans for special measures on trade. Our two largest trading partners, the United States and China, are in their own ways disrupting long-established rules for international trade while also creating new rules for themselves and potentially for others. The United States is Canada's largest and most important trading partner by far, and its tariff policies are negatively impacting many Canadian industries, especially the steel, auto and softwood lumber sectors.
As your committee reflects on upholding rules-based trade practices, I would encourage you to consider several issues.
First, while rules-based behaviour is foundational to our society, Canada must face the reality that the game has fundamentally changed. In a new game where the big players are breaking rules and writing new ones to protect themselves in a manner that hurts or undermines other players, including Canada, we must revisit our own rules and determine if adherence to them serves Canadians. If not, you, as lawmakers, can create new rules that better protect and promote Canadian interests.
For example, China has engaged in rule-breaking for decades around steel exports, resulting in overcapacity and dumping on global markets, including Canada's. Rules-based appeals to the WTO have been ineffective. Despite years of warnings by the Americans about this problem, including transshipment through Canada, only the U.S.'s recent imposition of steep tariffs on steel imports globally has spurred action by others.
To protect the Canadian market from further dumping, the Carney government also moved to limit steel imports from most countries this summer. While Chinese steel is subject to an immediate tariff of 25%, most of our FTA partners and all of our non-FTA partners are also subject to quotas and tariffs beyond 2024 volumes. Canada has announced these rules under special provisions in the Customs Act. However, many of our valued trading partners see Canada as a rule-breaking outlier in this instance and are bewildered by what they view as Canada's sudden about-face on the importance of rules.
Second, the Carney government recently announced new policies to support the industries most impacted by U.S. tariff policy, which include a buy Canadian plan to boost Canadian content in government procurement and strategies to increase trade diversification to new markets beyond the U.S. While I support the government's intentions and believe that action is necessary to protect Canadian jobs, these policies also come with great risk.
If buy Canadian procurement policies are ambitious in their design, they will almost certainly violate our trade agreements with friends and allies in Europe and Asia, which are built on foundational international trade principles around non-discrimination and “most favoured nation” status. In addition, as Canada seeks to protect its market through tariffs and buy Canadian rules, we could also potentially undermine our own goals for trade diversification. After all, what countries will be open to Canadian exports if we block our market from their products? Worse, will we all just replicate the protectionist contagion started by the U.S.'s own buy American policies? Shortly after Prime Minister Carney announced buy Canadian for steel, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, announced the EU's buy European steel plan.
I encourage the government to develop its new rules in a manner that does not invite protectionist retaliation. If poorly enacted, these policies could result in fewer exports for Canadian firms, less trade with allies and higher costs for consumers.
Finally, it's important that Canada not simply follow the Americans down their path of protectionism. The U.S. has a much larger internal market and relies on trade for only 25% of its GDP. Canada is simply in a different class. Fully two-thirds of our GDP and three million Canadian jobs rely on trade. For Canada to succeed as a trading nation, we must co-operate with our trading partners and adhere to mutually agreed-upon rules. As the government further develops its plan to protect the economy through special measures on trade, I encourage it to work with allies to ensure that we can continue to trade successfully with our FTA partners.
Thank you, Chair. I'd be pleased to answer questions from the committee.