I haven't heard of the last one being evaluated, but I will tell you that it tends to be the fear of getting caught that has the effect of deterring crime. If they're likely to get caught, they don't want any part of it. It isn't the severity of the penalties. For a lot of the prisoners that I've worked with, their expectation was that they weren't going to get caught, and if they were going to get caught, they'd take the hit, but their expectation and hope was that they were going to do this and not get caught.
If they were going to get caught, they wouldn't do it.