Evidence of meeting #14 for National Defence in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was arctic.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
The wave activity associated with the shipping, such as the disturbance caused by ships going through the water, would not have a significant impact relative to waves associated with the wind and the natural erosion processes that are occurring in the north.
Bloc
Pascal-Pierre Paillé Bloc Louis-Hébert, QC
Based on proposed glacial melt scenarios, which countries in the Far North would be most affected by the melting of the glaciers, and which would be least affected?
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
I would say that Canada faces some of the greatest challenges, because the ice that does exist and will continue to exist, particularly in the winter, tends to exit through Canadian waters. So there will be a continued high hazard for shipping in Canadian waters relative to those off the northern coast of Eurasia.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Thank you for your presence here today.
Mr. Bancroft, I know you have a vast area to predict ice conditions for and you have other responsibilities as well, including enforcement. Can you tell us whether Environment Canada has any airplanes, ships, or anything like that to carry out its activities? You have a role in enforcement, and if someone is polluting the ocean you have to (a) know about it, and (b) be able to do something about it.
Director, Canadian Ice Service, Department of the Environment
To clarify, our enforcement branch has a role: the boots on the ground, as it were. We do not have a fleet of ships. The Canadian Coast Guard is our civil fleet. We don't have any airplanes, but Transport Canada has civilian reconnaissance aircraft that we have our employees flying missions on for things such as oil pollution and ice reconnaissance. That's a very effective way of conducting business.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
With these ice patrol services and all of that, do you cover the whole of the Arctic or just the areas where there's industrial or particular activity that you're expecting?
Director, Canadian Ice Service, Department of the Environment
There are missions on all three oceans and the Great Lakes, in fact. In the north they are conducted when the major shipping seasons are there, and in particular they provide tailored support for coast guard operations—for example, when ships are transiting ice-infested waters in the Northwest Passage. They also operate on the east coast. On the surveillance programs, for example on oil pollution, they would be designed to target where the most vulnerable areas are and overlap with areas that are going to see the largest amount of shipping and potential risk.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
We had the coast guard officials here, as you know. You were probably here listening to them. They told us they weren't even sure when there were ships in the Arctic. Do you know, or do you wait for the coast guard to tell you?
Director, Canadian Ice Service, Department of the Environment
We work with all the partners as part of the partnership of the Interdepartmental Marine Security Working Group and people who feed into the Transport Canada maritime security operations centres. As an organization, the ice service looks at the Arctic every day, and occasionally we see things. When we do, and if it looks odd, we're like a neighbourhood watch; we'll report it to the appropriate agencies and departments, such as a vessel or a vessel track and things like that. We derive and turn our information from things such as Transport Canada, the Department of National Defence, the Canadian Coast Guard, and other agencies.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
This is perhaps for Mr. Lemmen, but anyone can join in because it's a big issue.
Given climate change and the opening of the Arctic Sea, it seems to me there's going to be a greater need for vessels that can operate there. I was told—after the meeting, by the way—that of the 12 new coast guard ships being built, none of them has any icebreaking capability and there won't be any improvement for operating in the north.
Do you see a need for a greater availability of vessels that can operate in the north? Or as far you know, do we have the adequate assets to conduct the continuing activities over the next 10 or 15 years, whether it be icebreaking or operations?
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
The results of the work we looked at suggest that there certainly is going to be an increased demand for services that are currently being provided by the coast guard for shipping. Then it's a matter of what the rate of acceleration is of that demand.
NDP
Director, Canadian Ice Service, Department of the Environment
I won't speak to the need of more icebreakers, but the last remaining sea ice of the multi-year ice in the Arctic hemisphere is projected to be in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and north of it towards the North Pole. Regardless of how fast it's changing now, we're sort of stuck with it until the bitter end. I will caution you that every winter it gets cold and dark and all the ice comes back in terms of the horizontal extent. The requirements are going to be there for the decades to come.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
This permafrost question is a bit scary. It seems to me, if we're losing the capability to have ice roads, and our railway beds are not going to be able to be as effective, are we going to see more turning to shipping as an approach to dealing with transportation in the north?
Is that something you people have thought about?
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
Again, that is addressed in the report. Certainly the thought is that, yes, land-based shipping through ice roads or ground transportation will likely increase in cost, whereas the viability of marine shipping from an economic perspective, as sea ice conditions are less severe, will likely become more of a favourable option. So yes, that is seen as a modal change within transportation in the north.
NDP
Jack Harris NDP St. John's East, NL
Given the sensitivities--you've all talked about the nature of the Arctic environment as very fragile in terms of what oil pollution can do there as opposed to some other place where it might dissipate more quickly--what about preparedness? It seems to me that things are happening very fast. The lead time for building an icebreaker, we were told, is 10 years, for example. Do you have any sense of a lack of urgency in terms of response at this point? Are you encouraging greater...? I'm not using the word “panic” here, but are we at the point where we'd better get acting fast before the changes catch up with us?
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
I don't think there's a lack of urgency. I think, from the scientific community, what happened in the Arctic in 2007 and 2008 caught everybody off guard. There was an absolutely precipitous decline in sea ice that simply was not forecastable. Those were conditions that the models were telling us were going to happen 20 to 30 years in the future.
Of course, we don't know whether this is a blip or whether this will go down in a continuous--
Research Manager, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division, Department of Natural Resources
Well, certainly we've heard that before.
I would say that certainly there is a sense of urgency, given that things do seem to be changing more quickly than we had originally forecast.
Conservative
LaVar Payne Conservative Medicine Hat, AB
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
I'd like to thank the witnesses for coming out today.
I also have the pleasure of sitting on the aboriginal and northern affairs committee, so I have some interest around that as well.
My first question is related to resources and regulations. In terms of Environment Canada and NRCan and the territories, who has responsibility for the regulatory requirements in order to get access to the minerals and the resources of the territories in the north?
Director General, Coordination and Strategic Issues Branch, Department of Natural Resources
I can tell you what NRCan is responsible for, and it's not what you're talking about.
We are responsible for doing a first geological map of the resources. That's what we've been doing, and it's what we will continue to do quite extensively over the next four or five years. It's to find the major deposits, at a high scale, for oil, gas, mineral, gold, diamond, whatever we can find, as a way of helping economic development whenever that comes. We don't get into regulations.
