National Defence Committee on April 12th, 2016

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

Yes, I think Canadians would accept it as a threat if presented with the evidence, and I think we are seeing the evidence based on some of the capabilities I laid out in my presentation, and also intent. As a threshold, of course, we saw the action in Georgia and in Ukraine, so it has shown a pattern of behaviour.

On the other side of the world, North Korea is also showing a pattern of bombastic statements, but also the development of capabilities.

I've framed North Korea as a medium-term threat because technologically it has to overcome the requirement to miniaturize nuclear weapons to put those on a ballistic missile, and also the ability to develop a long-range ballistic missile. But from the intelligence reports I read, it's moving in that direction. So you see intent and capability on both sides, perhaps not tomorrow but moving in that direction, and I think Canadians, presented with the evidence, would be willing to accept that.

[Dr. Aurel Braun]

In a sense this would tie in to some of the other questions that were asked. We need a conceptual clarification of what is a threat. When we say, “Look, there is no threat,” there is no threat in the sense of what we were used to in the Cold War, where we saw massive forces with tens of thousands of tanks as part of a strategy that would have involved a lunge toward the Channel. That is not what Russia intends. That is not what Russia is capable of doing.

However, the threat emanates from a country that prods and probes and seeks tactical advantages, that seeks to resolve its domestic problems and the problem of domestic instability. The social contract that had existed has fallen apart and you have a Kremlin that is looking for a kind of external validation. This is a recipe for having a kind of accidental conflict.

We see the Russians sending submarines into the waters of neighbouring states. The Swedes were pretty certain there was a Russian sub in their waters. We see the kind of challenges in the air, whether it was the British or others, where Russian aircraft come very close to their airspace. There were near accidents that have occurred. It has been a long time since that has happened. You have to go back to Soviet days when the Russian air force last acted this provocatively. So all of these are recipes for miscalculation.

You have a similar situation in North Korea. This is a wretchedly poor country, where people are starving, where people are trying to escape, and yet all its resources are being spent on trying to present the country as powerful and able to intimidate and develop nuclear weapons.

This is something out of the toolbox of the dictator. Where you don't have the domestic legitimacy, where you can't solve domestic problems or use a kind of local magical realism to sway the people, you seek to have a kind of permanent mobilization by calling on external threats and by using ultra-nationalism. That is subject to its own laws of diminishing returns. You have to keep ratcheting it up and this is what Russia has been doing. That presents dangers.

The economic problems in Russia mean that Russia needs to be aggressive in trying to get more energy. What does Russia export? It is energy, weapons, and corruption. That's about the three things, so where are they going to get additional energy? Well, they're looking at the Arctic.

If you have a catastrophic spill in the Arctic it would make what happened in the Gulf of Mexico look like a picnic. That is also a threat. So we have this economic threat, we have the ecological threat, and we have a military threat. We need to properly conceptualize, contextualize, and understand it, and we need to send the right kind of message. The capacity of the west is so much greater, but we have not mobilized that capacity, not for a confrontation but to send clear messages to Russia: solve your domestic problems, don't look for international adventures. There's no reason why Russia could not be a prosperous modern state. It isn't.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

That's the time. Sorry.

The floor is yours, Ms. Romanado. You have five minutes.

[Sherry Romanado, Liberal, Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I'd like to first thank Dr. Braun, Dr. Sloan, and Ms. Assenova for being here today.

We've heard a lot about surveillance and control. In terms of surveillance, Dr. Sloan, you've identified some opportunities, some areas of perhaps weakness in terms of ground-based interceptors and our RADARSAT Constellation satellites. In terms of control, we've heard a little bit from my colleague regarding the location of our air defence assets, the fact that ground-based interceptors for the United States are based in California and Alaska—so again, the west coast—and the fact that our fighter jets are currently in Bagotville and Cold Lake.

I'd like you to elaborate a little bit on the importance of our air tanker support in terms of the vast territory that we have to monitor. Could you elaborate a little bit on that and its importance?

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

Canada has five tankers, and they're based in Trenton. I think that that's sufficient, but just barely sufficient, because oftentimes our tankers are required overseas. I guess that would be the short answer. If you have one tanker dedicated to the Syrian theatre, one in refit, another one dedicated to perhaps some other mission, and then one for North America, then you are cutting it awfully close. It's a big country. Canada is often required to call on U.S. tankers to refuel our fighter aircraft.

[Sherry Romanado, Liberal, Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, QC]

Okay.

We heard a little bit about the replacement of our CF-18s. It was brought up through colleagues here around the table. You wrote an excellent report in 2014, “Something Has to Give: Why Delays Are the New Reality of Canada's Defence Procurement Strategy”. In that report, you outlined some of the concerns that we have about replacing our assets and some of the challenges we're currently facing.

We've heard from Dr. Braun who mentioned the F-35s. Given our current assets in Canada and the length of time it takes to procure assets in defence, could you give us a recommendation in terms of an action plan that we can take? What should we be looking at? What is realistic in terms of our current situation?

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

In terms of all air assets or in terms of fighter aircraft?

[Sherry Romanado, Liberal, Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, QC]

Fighter aircraft.

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

In terms of fighter aircraft, I was pleased that the Trudeau government put the F-35 back in the mix for the competition. Today I'm not willing to say that the Super Hornet or F-35 is the best aircraft. I do think that the competition needs to proceed expeditiously. If the statement of requirement is already done up, then it is possible that we could have an aircraft in place within four years, and certainly by 2025, which is now the end date given on our F-18s based on their airframe.

I think there are things that we need to consider. I would agree with the Trudeau government's approach of focusing on Canadian sovereignty and the aircraft that's necessary for Canadian sovereignty. Therefore, I don't necessarily think that fifth-generation stealth is critical in terms of our having an ability to take out air defence batteries in a foreign operation. I think we will probably always engage in such missions with the United States. What happened in Libya was that U.S. stealth aircraft took out the air defence and then the rest of NATO conducted its precision-strike missions.

It is possible, though, that you'll need a stealth aircraft to operate against Russia in the north. There are indications, as I mentioned, that the F-35 might be able to detect cruise missiles. There are just so many factors to include in deciding which aircraft is best. I'm unwilling today to say which direction we should go in.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

We go over to Mr. Bezan. You have five minutes.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I want to welcome our witnesses. It's good to see you, Professor Braun and Professor Sloan, back at committee.

Ms. Assenova, it's good to see you again. It's been several weeks since we've chatted.

I feel that the purpose of this panel is to talk about the risks and threats to Canada and to North America. I think that all three of you have clearly outlined the concerns that we have with Russia, especially in the near-Arctic airspace, but also their capabilities. I know, hearing from all three of you, that the one thing that probably keeps you guys awake at night, and keeps me awake at night, is the proliferation of cruise missiles, the incredible technology that we're seeing from the Russians on cruise missiles.

But also I want to talk about one of the U.S. subcontractors on cruise missiles who had their systems hacked into a number of years ago. That information was set out into the global sphere. What other countries do we see, as well as possibly non-state players, having access to those schematics to build their own cruise missiles?

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

If I've heard you correctly, who else could launch cruise missiles at North America? I do believe it's a state-based capability. I don't think a non-state actor has or will have in the near future that capability. I do think you're looking specifically at Russia. North Korea is focused on ballistic missiles right now.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Getting back to Russia, it's been said that Putin is provoked by weakness.

I'll start with you, Ms. Assenova. What types of deterrents do we need in North America to keep Putin at bay, to keep the Kremlin working? Of course, they're continuing to agitate and be an aggressor in the global sphere, but especially in eastern Europe. What do we need in a North American context to deter Putin from perceiving us as being weak and an easy play for him in the context of the expansionism and adventurism he's been demonstrating recently?

[Margarita Assenova]

I think we need the firm response that we used to have during the Cold War in similar situations. We need to help our allies in eastern Europe in creating their defences. They need to increase their spending as well, because they are falling in the same category as Canada and France, not really spending 2% of GDP. Some of them are already thinking about increasing their budgets gradually. It has to be done much more quickly.

The components of missile defence that are going to be located in Romania, Poland, and Turkey are very important too. Russia has been violating the air space of the countries in the Black Sea region for months, for years already. Turkey was the one country that shot down a Russian fighter jet in Syria, but this was not the first incident of such magnitude in the region.

We need to show Russia that we have protection and that the NATO alliance is there behind the eastern European countries. He is not aiming at the moment at the United States and Canada. I am saying “at the moment” because we don't know how his intent is going to change. He is aiming at the immediate flanks of Russia, from northern Europe, through eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and central Asia. Russia is already reducing spending in some of these regions—I mentioned central Asia—and reducing even the military base in Tajikistan, downgrading it as well. It is withdrawing from water projects in Kazakhstan, and this is very important to notice because that means Russia has serious financial problems. It's not going to be able to militarize forever and to increase its military might. We need to help the eastern Europeans, because I see this response see as the most important and the most telling to Russian President Putin to consider, that the west is strong. Instead we saw a refugee crisis in Europe that was partly provoked by Russian intervention in Syria in order to weaken Europe, and we are seeing at the same time American candidates for president dismissing NATO as a military alliance. These are positions that are going to work very comfortably, very suitably, for Mr. Putin. This is something we shouldn't be allowing.

[James Bezan, Conservative, Selkirk—Interlake—Eastman, MB]

Mr. Braun.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

That's about five minutes. I'm going to move on to the next questioner, I'm sorry.

Mr. Rioux, you have the floor for five minutes.

[Jean Rioux, Liberal, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I thank the witnesses for being here with us today.

Currently in the news we always hear about ISIL. I think the Arctic is being neglected. We have talked about it a lot today. Some say that other countries have increased their weaponry in the Arctic. People also talk about icebreakers, obviously, and antimissile devices. First of all, is this true? I'm going to ask you several questions in a row, which will allow you to answer in a general way.

I would also like to know if the threat to Canada involves maintaining our sovereignty over our territories, or whether it lies with the interest other countries have in our natural resources? You spoke about this earlier. What timeframe are we looking at? If I am not mistaken, it is mainly Russia and China who have shown interest there, but to what extent, respectively? Our sovereignty is currently under threat. In fact, are other countries interested in our natural resources? Do you think there are other types of threats, and are they pressing?

Mr. Braun, you have the floor.

[Dr. Aurel Braun]

The argument presents a very complex picture of both opportunities and threats. It is a vast region with enormous resources. Something like 22% of potential fossil fuel resources are in the Arctic. The temptation is tremendous. As the Arctic ice melts, the navigation potential, the northern sea route, could dramatically change trade patterns. This is what China is interested in, and other countries are interested as well.

Sovereignty protection takes a more complex form in terms of resource protection, in terms of looking at the environmental threat. This takes me back to how we can we deal with these multiple threats that operate at so many levels. Even the United States cannot do it alone. Even they need to do it jointly with other allies.

Our response has to be part of a comprehensive strategy that has to operate at many levels: the political, the military, the psychological, the economic level, and NORAD and NATO come into it. One of the difficulties has been that Russia has viewed NATO as this pathetic weak giant that is incapable of action, not because it doesn't have the resources, but because it doesn't have the willpower; it doesn't have the capacity to mobilize and respond effectively.

While Russia uses cruise missiles.... I think it was my colleague who said it wasn't necessary—but it was necessary in a sense for Russia, because they needed to make a point. They wanted to send a message. This is what Russia is doing. They're sending all sorts of messages, and we have not been sending messages back.

So symbolism is very important. When we look at the type of aircraft that we're going to get, it's not merely a matter of dollars and cents. It's a matter of proper integration in terms of what kind of message you send to the other side. You could be penny-wise and pound foolish. Sometimes you spend extra money because you create a certain kind of image.

When I spent some time many years ago at Stanford University as a visiting scholar, Milton Friedman was there on loan from University of Chicago. I was working on the Warsaw Pact, and writing on it. We had this chat about what cost means. He said that as an economist, sometimes you need to spend a certain amount of money and you have to look at the value of it differently than in purely economic terms. On occasion, you might spend a dollar and you can inflict 10 dollars' worth of damage on the other side and it's not worth it. At other times you may spend 10 dollars to get one dollar's worth of benefit on the other side and it's worth it, because ultimately you look at the cost in political terms.

Whatever military aircraft we get, our participation in BDM also has to operate within that group or context. What image do we project? How effective are we in creating the sense to anyone who might challenge our sovereignty, who might be tempted to engage in exploration that could be harmful to our interests, who might engage in navigation that would have a negative impact...? Do we project the kind of image of sufficient strength and determination singly in our alliance with NORAD and through our alliance with NATO? That is very important. This is why in the 21st century in particular, symbolism and signals are also essential.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you very much.

I'm going to move to the last question for round two to Mr. Garrison, for three minutes, please.

[Randall Garrison, NDP, Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC]

I want to go back to the question of our naval capacity in the Arctic. I know some have asked who is the largest naval power in Canada. It's not the Royal Canadian Navy; it's actually Fednav, which has more ships operational than our navy has at this time. They also have an icebreaker that has a greater capacity than the Canadian navy.

Professor Braun, I want to ask you this again. The Nunavik that Fednav owns is under contract to a Chinese-owned mining company. Is this an example of the kind of threat of lack of capacity, that resource development will run ahead of Canada's ability to control the Arctic?

[Dr. Aurel Braun]

There is always a risk because of the kinds of temptations that exist. We look for resources and companies that want to make profits. On occasion we allow companies in and maybe we don't fully think through all of the implications that involve more than just economic benefit, but can involve security factors as well.

This is why it is so essential that the government think in terms of a grand strategy to look at that larger picture at all times. I can well understand that we need to make practical decisions. There are the functional factors and there are some cost factors. What do we get when we build icebreakers? Do we loan them? How do we co-operate with others?

These are decisions at a certain level, but at the highest level of government, that is where you do the grand strategy thinking. We have to ask ourselves if we have really done that effectively, not just in Canada but collectively in the west. I look at the threat that Russia has presented, and this should not have happened. We should not have allowed this. We did not respond properly in the case of Georgia. We did not respond properly in the case of Ukraine, and what happens in Ukraine has an impact on what happens in the Baltics, and what happens in the Baltics has an impact on what happens in the Scandinavian countries and in the Arctic.

When I was doing research on this latest book, I was talking to people in Denmark and Sweden. They said that they were really concerned about what happens in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, but what happens in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania is also influenced by what happened in Ukraine, where Russia was able to demonstrate that they can overthrow the post-Cold War order with impunity. That is what has happened in the case of a country that doesn't have the power.... Russia is not a superpower, but it has been able to do these things.

Mr. Putin demonstrated in the case of Syria that he was able to act unilaterally, surprise the Americans, and not get into a quagmire. This may tempt him into other adventures.

These are the kinds of factors that we have to look at, whether it's a commercial matter, a military matter, or a political matter, and in the Arctic we have no margin of error. If there are problems in the Arctic, an error will have catastrophic consequences.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you very much.

That concludes rounds one and two.

I'm going to ask one question and then hand it over to Mr. Bezan.

I'm going to direct this question to you, Professor Sloan. We've heard today—and I happen to know—that our defence priorities for our air force in terms of our fighter forces are that sovereignty is number one, then NORAD, and then NATO. From a practical perspective, I think that when we buy something in the future, no matter what it is, we should obviously keep in mind those priorities, as well as our infrastructure and our budget. I also agree, as was mentioned earlier, that NORAD and NATO are actually the systems that we plug into. We provide capability to those organizations.

That said, if our number one priority is sovereignty, we have an infrastructure in place and we have a limited amount of money. The number of fighters was mentioned earlier. We have tankers that work with certain systems and not others. We have a Canadian north that's littered with 6,000-foot runways. Would it not make sense if we focused on our number one priority and our limitations in terms of infrastructure and money to select something that would serve us first and still have the ability to plug into those systems like NORAD and NATO? We all know that Germany and France aren't buying a fifth-generation fighter. They have the Rafale and the Eurofighter, yet no one is freaking out about them not coming to the table.

Having said all that, may I have your comments on that, please?

[Dr. Elinor Sloan]

Yes, absolutely. I think we do need to prioritize the defence of North America. As I say, a Super Hornet would probably feed into that. I've not made up my mind either way.

As I mentioned earlier, there are so many factors that you need to look at, but one of the factors you need to look at is the supply chain and how long it's going to.... My understanding is that the Super Hornet in the United States is flying to 2040. Maybe I'm wrong on that, but we want an aircraft that will fly for at least 40 years. The CF-18 will have flown for 45 years by the time it's done.

Will there be supply chain problems in the long term, in the third and fourth decades? That would be one of the things that I would include in the SOR as a factor that I would look at.

Also, it is important to be able to operate with our allies. If all of our major allies are buying the F-35, then it would go in the F-35 direction with the United States, and with Britain and Australia, although, as you've mentioned, there are many allies that are not buying the F-35. But they're not necessarily the ones that would be the coalition leaders. Germany would probably not be the coalition leader for a mission that Canada would take part in, although I guess that could change in the future.

Those are a few more factors that I would include in a decision on which direction to go in.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you very much. Do you have an opinion, Mr. Braun? Be very quick.

[Dr. Aurel Braun]

Yes, I do. We're not buying an aircraft; we're buying a system. It's a mistake to think of the aircraft as a stand-alone. As Elinor Sloan said, we have to think about which allies we operate with in the north, and that would be Norway, Denmark, and the United States. The United States is buying this aircraft massively.

Lastly what's very important is that we're protecting sovereignty against whom? If the threat is Russia, what is the message we're sending? The aircraft and the system sends a message.