National Defence Committee on Oct. 25th, 2017

[Sven Spengemann, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

What might be the key factors in elevating that price?

[Alan W. Bell]

Every day we—the west and NATO, I'll just combine the two—do nothing except on the political levels, which probably none of us will ever know about at that particular time, they are getting more and more adventurous, and they will do more and more. They have the power to do that. The whole Russian army's aim is to fight a war on land on their borders, and that's what they are geared up to do. Of course, all the other former Soviet bloc countries are not able to defend themselves against those types of attacks.

[Sven Spengemann, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Is it a smart question to ask whether Mr. Putin has an end game in the Donbass region, or do you think he may not even know what his end game is at this point?

[Alan W. Bell]

I think he is testing the water. The only thing I can see changing is if he comes out of power and someone else takes over who is a little easier to deal with. That doesn't seem to be on the horizon at this particular moment in time. The less we do to stop him from doing it, the more he will probably plan to escalate.

[Sven Spengemann, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Bell.

Mr. Siromakha, I'd like to ask you for your answer to that same question, recognizing that I am almost out of time, so colleagues will probably follow up with you. How do you see Mr. Putin's end game in Donbass? Is there one? What do you think is next?

[Col Viktor Siromakha]

I think the dream of Mr. Putin is to create something similar to the Soviet Union. For him, as quite an aged and experienced man, that would probably be the masterpiece of his whole life. He is probably trying to finalize his tour of duty as President of Russia with a very big and serious step, creating something very big and really strong.

[Sven Spengemann, Liberal, Mississauga—Lakeshore, ON]

Mr. Chair, I think that's my time. Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Thank you.

Colonel, thank you for joining us. I'd like to bring you into the conversation formally. I'll give you your 10 minutes, for your opening remarks, and then I'll resume questioning with Mr. Hoback.

Colonel, you have the floor.

[Col Viktor Siromakha]

Thank you very much, sir.

Honourable chair of the committee, members of Parliament, ladies and gentlemen, I'm grateful to you for giving me this opportunity to represent our Ukrainian understanding of the ongoing conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Has something changed in Russian deeds and behaviour in the last three years of war? Nothing. Let me reassure you that people are still dying in the conflict every single day. Yesterday was another dark day for Ukraine. We lost four Ukrainian soldiers, killed in action. Four other soldiers were wounded. Just think: four women woke up as widows, children lost their fathers, and mothers lost their sons. Ukraine strives for peace, as I believe everyone in this room does, but today we are still forced to keep searching for a response to Russian aggression.

The aim of Russian aggression is to destroy democracy, liberal freedoms, and human rights in Ukraine. In some places they do this with tanks, in other places with the help of fake news, hybrid warfare, including cyber-tools, like yesterday. They assaulted the Ukrainian airport at Odessa and the Kiev subway system, so it was one more bright example of their cyber-tools.

Russia keeps blatantly violating the commitment taken upon itself, the same way Moscow keeps ignoring our persistent demands, and demands of the international community, to get back to respect the international floor, but Russia keeps pretending it has nothing to do with that. Moscow continues to turn a blind eye to its commitments under the Minsk agreement. Its military forces are still on the territory of Ukraine, both in Crimea and Donbass.

Let me dwell upon the current situation in eastern Ukraine. The conflict-affected areas of Donbass have suffered enormous losses. More than 10,000 people were killed, more than 20,000 people injured, and 1.5 million were displaced. Bridges, roads, houses, and other infrastructure elements were destroyed. Huge terrains are now polluted with anti-personnel and anti-tank mines, and booby-trapped mines as well. Many plants and factories were stolen and the unique equipment was illegally transported to Russia. Military assets, weapons, ammunition, fuel, and rations are still delivered to illegal entities created by Russia. The security situation remains very difficult.

Combined Russian separatist forces continue to systematically ignore the Minsk agreement, making extensive use of the prohibited weapons. The vast majority of armed provocations are carried out in the dark, after the OSCE and the Red Cross finalize their daily missions. Mercy observers have no unlimited access to the areas not controlled by the Ukrainian government, which does not allow them to really assess the status of the implementation of the Minsk agreement, like in the vicinity of the village of Telmanove two days ago—just two days ago.

On the other hand, on numerous occasions Ukraine proved its readiness for a peaceful settlement of the situation that was artificially created by Russia. In 2017, Ukraine has initiated long-lasting ceasefires three times: Easter, harvest, and so-called back-to-school ceasefires. Russian occupation troops and their proxies violated them almost straight away. Since the beginning of 2017, there were more than 13,000 registered violations of the ceasefire regime. Several weeks ago, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a law establishing conditions for a peaceful settlement in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. They count on Russia finally beginning to implement security commitments under the Minsk agreement. We also expect that these steps will allow moving forward with the matter of the deployment of a UN peacekeeping mission in Donbass.

The initiative of this peacekeeping mission was introduced by our president in spring 2015 to the UN Security Council. Ukrainian delegations to the UN have continuously requested sending an assessment mission of the UN Security Council to Ukraine to study the situation in the field. Unfortunately, all proposals faced a rigorous opposition on behalf of the Russian delegation in New York, which argued that such an operation would be in contradiction of the Minsk agreement.

The Ukrainian side is ready for constructive work under the deployment of a full-fledged UN peacekeeping mission. However, the project suggested by Russia cannot serve as a basis for a pre-review discussion within the Security Council.

The principle elements of the Ukrainian position are the following.

A future UN mission should be deployed throughout all the temporarily occupied territory, including the uncontrolled section of the Ukrainian-Russian state border. The introduction of a UN mission should immediately lead to a steady ceasefire, as well as to a complete withdrawal of all foreign troops, armoured formations, and personnel, including their weapons and equipment, from the territory of Ukraine.

A UN mission should comply with the guiding principles of the implementation of UN peacekeeping operations, which exclude the participation of representatives of the aggressor country or other parties to the conflict. Therefore, Ukraine rejects coordinating the future parameters of a UN mission with pro-Russian separatists. A future UN mission should not in any way harm the OSCE or other international organizations in Donbass by preventing them from fulfilling their mandate or restricting their freedom of movement.

Ladies and gentlemen, let me once again answer my own question. Has something changed over the last three years since the beginning of the war in Ukraine? Yes, it has. The international coalition in support of Ukraine and the rule of international law has only strengthened. I'm very pleased to stress that Canada has been one of our main partners and friends in supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

This year we celebrated the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Canada and Ukraine. Ukraine is totally committed to the continued deepening of bilateral relations. Canada and Ukraine continue to work together on military training and defence matters.

In April of this year, Canada and Ukraine signed a defence co-operation arrangement, which shows Canada's steadfast commitment to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people. Throughout Operation Unifier, the Canadian Armed Forces delivered more than 160 courses to 5,800 Ukrainian soldiers. This year, for the sixth time, a contingent of approximately 30 Canadian Armed Forces members deployed within Operation Unifier marched in the Ukrainian independence day parade.

We are grateful to the Canadian government for extending the mandate of Operation Unifier until March 2019. We are looking forward to the positive decision of the Canadian government concerning adding Ukraine to the automatic firearms country control list. The initiative is vital. Let me stress this one more time; it's vital for Ukraine. Yes, Ukraine does need defensive lethal weapons as a country entering the fourth year of a very real and brutal war.

Ukraine highly appreciates the political support and essential practical assistance of the government and people of Canada provided to the Ukraine armed forces. I am very grateful to the honourable members of this assembly for protecting Ukraine from the Russian aggression from the very beginning. The people of Ukraine will always remember the hand of support extended to us by our friends in the most difficult moment of our history.

Thank you for your attention, support, and confidence.

Glory to Ukraine. Glory to Canada.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

We offer our sincere condolences to you for your soldiers lost yesterday in the fight with Russia.

[Col Viktor Siromakha]

Thank you very much.

[The Chair, Liberal, Stephen Fuhr]

Mr. Hoback.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you to all three witnesses for being here this afternoon for this great discussion.

Cybersecurity, fake news, cyber-hybrid war—all that seems to be in Ukraine, and it seems like it's one of the fronts for that to happen. It seems like it's where all the new stuff is being developed or tested, if not utilized. We saw that, as you said, last night.

How does the “cyber” aspect redefine war? How does it change what we should be doing in Canada as far as preparing for our own protection? Also, how can we assist people in Ukraine similarly to what the Americans and the Brits are doing in helping to provide that cyber-technology, that cyber-assistance?

Mr. Bell, I'll start with you, and then Mr. Wright.

[Alan W. Bell]

Warfare has been the way it's been for many years. This is a new spinoff from actual war and what we're used to planning for and what our leaders are used to dealing with over time. These forays into these different countries, we get them in Canada but it doesn't mean to say we're going to get invaded. However, in the Ukraine and in Crimea, they were preconceived attacks that resulted in annexation for Crimea, and then some occupation of the Ukraine.

We did not know or we didn't realize at the time that this is what the cyber-attacks were a result of. Of course, the other countries in that part of the world are going to be worried that if they start having more and more cyber-attacks against their particular critical infrastructure facilities, Russia is going to make a move into their country.

This is what worries them. It should worry us as well because we have to deal with them as well, as well as most of the other western countries. Until we really get a handle on cyberwarfare—and I think my colleague wants to talk about quantum computers shortly, which could be a deal-breaker for all this because I can't talk about that type of thing—I think we're going to ask, when we have this overabundance of cyber-activity, what does it mean? Does it mean they're just feeling us out, or does it mean this is a precursor for another attack?

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

In this case, they used the precursor for an actual attack.

Back in North America that could be a precursor for an election or some other activity that disrupts the media, disrupts the flow of Canadians.

Mr. Wright, how do you see all this linked together? What could we be doing in Ukraine that would help us prepare here in Canada? For example, the attacks that happened yesterday, if we were there, what would we learn from it that we could take back to Canada? Because we're not there, we don't learn.

[Stuart Wright]

Immediately, you threaten intelligence. We'd understand the boots-on-the-ground view as to what the threat actor was doing, how it orchestrated the attacks, the tools and mechanisms that are used to deploy those attacks, which critical infrastructure, why it was targeted at the time. I'm hearing of casualties. It sounds as if this was a concerted effort, timed strategically so that there might have been a frictional escalation at the same time.

To go back to your initial question of what we can do domestically and abroad, first you want to improve the domestic cyber-capabilities, both in Ukraine as well as here in North America. Given the repeated expectation of vulnerabilities in industrial controls like SCADA systems, which took down the air systems and the transport automation systems, we want to focus on that in industry, government, and the military.

Some questions were raised here by the panel. My comment would be training exercises as well, like NATO's locked shields, are an excellent means of reducing the impact. It doesn't address the latent vulnerabilities found with these industrial systems, so we need to start training, mobilizing, and resourcing to address the current risks there. For example, as part of the exercises, NATO members defended the power grid in Estonia from an ongoing cyber-attack.

Such a defence, while essential, needs to be accompanied by proactive measures such as updating and improving industrial system security. Otherwise, all these are just workarounds for active defence measures. They're going to keep implementing new tools, new malwares. You need to start hardening these systems. You need to have people on the ground to assist Ukraine, take those learnings, and bring them back to North America.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

That begs the question. Here in Canada we have a conventional idea of military being guns and soldiers. Do we need to redefine military and war?

[Stuart Wright]

As part of that playbook we need to redefine hybrid warfare. We know we can go kinetic. We have the tools, processes. We have some subject-matter experts here that I could learn from on how to go kinetic. You need to understand as a precursor to those activities that cyberwarfare is the first mechanism for effectively disrupting your communications, disrupting your measures for energy, which causes chaos in your systems and impacts your ability to respond kinetically. If you're going to go down that path, you need to start resourcing up, training up, and providing additional tools, processes, and measures to help support the troops in these foreign operations both here and abroad.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

Okay, so Mr. Bell, in that case, you don't necessarily want people who can do 100 push-ups. You want people who are like Sheldon Cooper of The Big Bang Theory. How do we attract those kinds of people?

[Alan W. Bell]

We need to redefine the battle space, and that's why I'm talking about military advancements.

I'd like to go offline a minute. We're responsible for carrying out an extensive audit of one of the province's water supply systems. All our SCADA systems were not protected in any shape or form. I asked the individuals in charge of this water supply system, what would happen if they got cyber-attacked? They said, people in that particular province would not have water for a minimum of about one to two months.

Imagine if that happened in the summer and we lost the ability to deliver water to a province. I'm not talking about a city. I'm talking about a province. This province would have been totally vulnerable. They still haven't figured out how they're going to protect them.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

In other words, we would be vulnerable not just in power grids—

[Alan W. Bell]

We are vulnerable now, today.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

—but in water and a variety of other things that we probably can't even imagine.

[Alan W. Bell]

Yes. I'm not even going to go on to our nuclear power stations.

[Randy Hoback, Conservative, Prince Albert, SK]

Back in Saskatchewan, the malware that was used yesterday could actually show up on Saskatchewan's power grid or something like that. Is that fair to say?

How do we defend against that?