National Defence Committee on March 9th, 2022

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Have we given any rules of engagement to Canadian Forces personnel in Latvia, or perhaps in Poland, regarding an accidental Russian attack or otherwise?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr. Chair, the Canadian Forces have the authorities and the rules of engagement they need right now to operate in the context in which we're operating. If the situation changes, we will ensure that the Canadian Armed Forces members have the rules of engagement they require. I think we have to remind ourselves that, at any time, any member of the Canadian Forces, any unit of the Canadian Forces, any allies, have always had the right to self-defence.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Have we any indication that Russia is purposely targeting humanitarian convoys or evacuation convoys out of Ukraine?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr. Chair, and Madam Gallant, I don't have that information right now. I'm not too sure if Kevin has some information to that effect.

[Kevin Hamilton]

Mr. Chair, this speaks to intent, of course. What we have seen is that humanitarian corridors have been targeted. Whether that is intentional or not isn't something we know. It's where we have a gap in intelligence.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Madam Gallant.

Ms. O'Connell, you have five minutes, please.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thank you to the witnesses.

Major-General—or you can direct this to who's best to answer—I read in open-source reporting that the U.S. is reporting from their intel that “Putin is angry” and is going to “double down”. I'm curious as to what the doubling down might look like if so far some of their efforts.... Again, I recognize that this could be speculation, but based on what the U.S. intel has put out there, and based on the fact that Russia's attempts so far have probably not gone according to plan, what does that look like in terms of escalation?

Then I have a second question.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Maybe I'll take care of the first part of the question and offer this to my colleagues at Global Affairs if they want to add more to it.

Obviously, it's something that we are all concerned about. This is something that we monitor as best we can. I think Russia has been very good at rhetoric in the past. On the declarations of Putin of last week, we took note just to monitor what he's doing from a strategic and operational perspective.

It's something that we're concerned about. At the same time, I don't think we need to overplay this. There could be some rhetoric there, for sure, and we clearly have an eye on that concern about Putin's behaviour, for sure, but I think there's the whole-of-government effort and the whole-of-alliance effort taken, and the diplomatic information and the economic and military show of strength that Mr. Putin has to take note of.

Kevin, have you anything to add?

[Kevin Hamilton]

Mr. Chair, it is speculative, naturally, but it's part of our job to speculate and to foresee different scenarios. One of the scenarios that is out there and relates to the question is the fact that because the campaign is not going as well as Putin had expected, there is a risk that, as egregious as this war has been to date, he could resort to options that are even more lethal. That's something that we're alive to and we're looking at.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Thank you.

Just following up on that, we heard from other witnesses previously, witnesses from academia, who study this and are obviously watching this very closely and the question is always, well, how does this end? Some of their testimony, which I'm completely paraphrasing here, was suggesting that once the oligarchs realize that this is untenable and financially....

But if Putin does not back down—I don't see him just walking away and going, saying, okay, you've got us—what types of pressure will continue to put that domestic pressure on him to retreat in some fashion?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Kevin, do you want to start?

[Kevin Hamilton]

Yes.

One has to believe that the domestic pressure and the pressure around his inner circle and the oligarchs is a factor and an issue. As to exactly how we measure that and are able to predict what an end state might be, I think we're a long ways away from that, at the moment.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Fair enough.

I forget who said this, but approximately 2,000 Canadian Armed Forces members are currently deployed across the world. Is the 3,400 number committed to be ready for NATO in addition to the 2,000, or would you be pulling from other missions around the world?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

The answer is that it will be in addition to the 2,000 members we have deployed across the world right now. We have 3,400 on high alert here in Canada, ready to go.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Thank you.

Do I have more time, Mr. Chair?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You have half a minute.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Perfect.

In terms of airlift capabilities, I recognize that the alliance is utilizing resources from different alliance members. Is Canada being relied on for air support, whether it's delivery of equipment or personnel? Is that an area that Canada is assisting with or is capable and ready for should the alliance ask for it?

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Be very brief, please.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

I will. I did cover it in my opening remarks, Mr. Chair.

We do have two CC-130 Hercules deployed in Europe right now to help the NATO countries move their personnel and equipment about the alliance and to help those countries deliver military aid on the borders of Ukraine.

[Jennifer O'Connell, Liberal, Pickering—Uxbridge, ON]

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Ms. O'Connell.

That completes our second round. We will move to our third and final round.

Mr. Ruff, you have five minutes, please.

[Alex Ruff, Conservative, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, ON]

Thanks again, Chair.

I have a quick question for General Prévost on strategic lift again. I have been talking to former colleagues who are on the ground in Ukraine helping with the evacuation mission in getting Ukrainians out. There's an extreme shortage in the supply of transport, i.e., buses.

Is there any capacity for the Canadian Armed Forces to lift small buses into eastern Europe to help with the evacuation?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

The answer is that we have a long list of what Ukraine is asking for. I can go through the list to make sure; if buses were on there, I don't recall.

We can look into this issue for sure. I will take that with me. Thank you.

[Alex Ruff, Conservative, Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound, ON]

It's not so much Ukraine that's asking. I know that this is coming from NGOs and people who are helping with the evacuation. There's a huge challenge there. Refugees are walking for days to get across the country to try to get to safety.

I'll go back a little bit to my previous line of questioning on capacity for what comes next. It builds on Ms. O'Connell's questioning. When this is all said and done, the world is going to be in a different position. What does the Canadian Armed Forces need to do, moving forward, from a capacity and capability standpoint?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

For sure, the situation may be quite different when this is all said and done; to what extent, we don't know. What we're doing is based on the 2017 defence policy. There are 111 initiatives in there to continue to modernize the force. We're going to continue to also modernize the force in accordance with the NORAD modernization plans that we have in conjunction with the U.S.

As I mentioned already, there are also internal things we need to do in terms of personnel. We need to recruit more. We need to rebuild the force. Right now our force has some gaps in personnel. We have to look at our personnel policies. We have to look at our culture change. All of that together is what CAF needs to do over the next coming years to tackle the challenges of the future.