National Defence Committee on March 9th, 2022

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Are there plans to increase the available reserve forces for operations in Europe, should that become necessary to support the current troop deployment?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

That is a possibility. We are not there yet. We will adjust as the crisis develops.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Canada's CF-18s are rapidly deployable to Europe in times of crisis, so why haven't they been sent to Romania, Poland or Latvia? Why won't we be sending anything until July, according to the reports?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

As part of Operation Reassurance, we have a commitment to the eFP battle group in Latvia. That's their permanent presence in Latvia. Part of that commitment from the government, which stems from before the crisis, was to sustain that battle group in Latvia. Another part of that commitment is a frigate in either the Mediterranean or the Baltic Sea. That frigate has been rotated every six months, but it has been a persistent presence since 2014.

Also part of that commitment is the air task force, comprised of the six CF-18s. Every year, we use the six CF-18s to rotate into Europe to do the air policing missions in Romania. That normally happens in the fall. What was announced this week is that this deployment will again occur this fall, but it could be brought in earlier if NATO requires it.

[Cheryl Gallant, Conservative, Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke, ON]

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Madam Gallant.

Mr. Fisher, you have six minutes.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Welcome back, Major-General, to you and your officials.

We've seen reports of significant losses by the Russian military in a very short period of time at the outset of this conflict. We've also seen reports of vehicles breaking down, tanks running out of fuel and Russian soldiers having expired rations.

Major-General, what are your thoughts on how this military operation by Russia has progressed?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Mr. Chair, our assessment is that Mr. Putin's campaign is not going the way he had envisioned. We see the same as you see in the media. We see the same on the intelligence side. They're running into logistics problems. They're running into military issues. They were probably expecting to have a bit more control of the airspace. Their equipment is failing. That campaign is not going as anticipated for Mr. Putin.

I think there may be some miscalculation on his part as well in the fact that Ukrainians would be really ready for a battle and determined, like we've seen lately. I think Mr. Putin also may have underestimated the resolve of the allies to come in support of Ukraine by providing military aid.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Does this surprise you, Major-General? Are you surprised by what looks like a bit of a lack of readiness and equally by the apparent readiness of the Canadian-trained Ukrainian soldiers?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

To answer that question, Mr. Chair, I'm not surprised on either front. With regard to the Ukrainians, we've been training with them since 2015. Let's not forget that they've been in a crisis since 2014, since the invasion of Crimea. They've been doing a good fight in the Donbass. They've learned a lot. We've trained them. We know how hardened they are. That's on the one front.

On the other front, like we see in information and disinformation in Russia, we have to be careful here. I would say that Mr. Putin may not be 10 feet tall like he is.... There's always been the recognition that they might have a large force that is not really modern and maybe a modern force that is not very large.

I'm not surprised on either front.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you for that, Major-General.

As we are meeting today, there are protests occurring across Russia against Putin's unprovoked and unjustified war on Ukraine. These protests are in defiance of the Putin regime. Currently, hundreds of protesters are being arrested daily.

What do you see right now as the mood and consensus of the Russian people? Did this happen in 2014 or 2008 towards Putin? I'm curious to see if you see any parallels.

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Actually, if you don't mind, on this one, I'll refer this to my colleagues, either Heidi or Kevin, as they have a bit more insight. Obviously, we have some intelligence on what we see, but they have a bit more insight from their missions on what we see there. I think it would probably be Heidi on this one.

[Heidi Kutz]

Thank you very much.

Good afternoon.

What I would say is that our mission in Moscow is watching closely the situation, and certainly the measures that Canada, along with partners and allies, has undertaken with respect to economic sanctions, and other measures, are causing strain and pressure on the Russian economy. We are watching those protests that are taking place to understand the impacts on Russian society.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you for that.

I'm going to go back to my earlier line of questioning that the major-general and I were talking about: Russia's readiness. We talked about misinformation and information. There was a university professor in a bunker, a Ukrainian professor, who said something along the lines of how he had heard that 3,000 Russians—and this was in the first two or three days—had been killed. The CBC reporter quite smartly said, “Well, we don't have verified numbers there.”

How confident are we that what we're seeing with some of these Russian problems they're having there are all accurate?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

That's actually a very good question, Mr. Chair.

I would say that the allies, as we're all following this, are trying to assess what the battle damage is. I would say that these reports are pretty much in line with what we observe. It's very difficult to pinpoint a number, obviously, with the intelligence means that we do have, but clearly, the Russian advance is not moving the way it was anticipated. We're trying to understand exactly what damage has been done.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

You have 30 seconds.

[Darren Fisher, Liberal, Dartmouth—Cole Harbour, NS]

Thank you, Major-General, to you and your team.

I will cede the last 30 seconds, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Mr. Fisher.

Ms. Normandin, you have the floor for six minutes.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

Major General Prévost, thank you for being available; you have come to testify on short notice.

I'd also like to thank Ms. Kutz and Mr. Hamilton.

My first question is related to NATO's Exercise Cold Response 2022. Today, we heard in the media that within the NATO countries, 30,000 people are participating. Canada will only be sending about 10 people, whereas in the past we have sent 400, 500, up to 2,000 people.

Could the fact that we're not providing many troops be perceived as Canada abdicating its Arctic sovereignty, of sorts?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Thank you for your question, Ms. Normandin.

Decisions on Canada's participation in the exercises are not my headquarters' responsibility. Therefore, decisions about Canada's participation in Exercise Cold Response 2022 are also not under my control.

However, as Canada is part of NATO, until recently, one of our marine patrol aircraft monitored Russian marine activities on a daily basis near Norway, where Exercise Cold Response will take place. In addition, we are increasing the number of personnel in nearby Latvia to 540.

Canada's participation in NATO is important. The decision to have 10 personnel participate in Exercise Cold Response is consistent with our training objective in littoral operations, which will take place during the exercise.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

According to media reports, sending 10 people was unrelated to the current situation in Ukraine, because the decision was made long before the conflict broke out. There is speculation that it was related to the recruitment and retention issues the military is currently experiencing.

Is this an indicator of how critical the level of recruitment and retention are, along with our readiness for potential missions in the Arctic?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

That's a very good question.

You're right, Ms. Normandin.

Currently in the Canadian Forces, some of the threats to our operational readiness are related to the number of people we have. Everyone in the department is working hard to increase recruitment efforts, to change our policies and to effect a culture change, all of which are contributing to our smaller force size.

The smaller force we are sending for the exercise is offset by the efforts of Canada, which has deployed 2,000 personnel around the world to participate in about 20 missions. That has to be weighed against our strong NATO presence. As you said, the decision to minimize our contribution to Exercise Cold Response was made several months in advance.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you very much.

I'm going to continue to talk about the Arctic exercise, but I will focus on material rather than human resources. As we know, Canada does not necessarily have a response force. Indeed, radar is relatively obsolete and we have no major military vessels such as nuclear powered icebreakers or the like to conduct patrols.

In the past, Canada has repeatedly refused to work with the United States on a missile defence system. In the current environment, I wonder whether Canada been approached by the United States to restart discussions about its participation in a missile defence system?

[MGen Paul Prévost]

Ms. Normandin, we're working closely on the modernization of the North American Aerospace Defence Command, or NORAD, and have been for several years.

The discussions were announced a few years ago. We're working hard on this right now. Discussions are going on between Canada and the United States, but also between the Canadian Armed Forces and the government. This was also announced when the defence policy was implemented in 2017.

The discussions are well under way. The intention is really to modernize continental defence, North American defence and air defence through NORAD.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you very much.

One of the scenarios that unfortunately seems to be likely in Ukraine unless NATO members intervene, which I think is unlikely—we may have to accept a scenario in which Ukraine is going to surrender.

Has this scenario been analyzed by the CAF? What would the implications be? If Ukraine were to fall, one might expect that this would not stop there.