National Defence Committee on Oct. 18th, 2022

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

Mr. Chair, even though Russia is focused on Ukraine and its land forces are getting pretty chewed up there, they still retain significant capability in the other domains: cyber, space, air, maritime, surface and subsurface.

As they become more isolated and they become more beholden to China and much more of a vassal state, perhaps, what we may see is a reluctance to co-operate to a greater extent in the north and perhaps we will see that going away.

I'll ask General Wright for his assessment.

[MGen Michael Wright]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

I would definitely agree that if Russia and China were to co-operate in the Arctic, it would pose significant threats to Canada's ability to protect its sovereignty.

I would also reinforce what General Eyre said, which is that there is a growing imbalance in the relationship between Russia and China because of Russia's failures. I do believe that there is an opportunity for us to see China take advantage of Russia in that region.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Thank you, Ms. O'Connell.

Go ahead, Ms. Normandin.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you, gentlemen, for making time for the committee and being here today. We certainly appreciate it. I'm delighted to see you in person.

I'd like to dig deeper into the matter of the missile defence shield. First, I'd like to know whether Canada currently has the capability to shoot down a missile without the help of the United States, if Russia were to use the Arctic to launch an attack.

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

Thank you for your question.

We have an excellent relationship with our American counterparts. In fact, I will be speaking with the commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command, NORAD, in a few hours to talk about co‑operation in the Far North and the organization's modernization implementation plan.

Going forward, we will need to continue working with the U.S. in the Arctic because it is in our interest to do so. As I said in my opening statement, I met with all the chiefs of defence from the Arctic nations, and we share a common view of what the security challenges are.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

General Eyre, what I want to know is whether Canada, on its own, has the capability to shoot down a missile, without the U.S.'s help.

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

It's important to know what the threat is and to understand it. At this time—this week or this year—the threat to our sovereignty is unclear. However, for the future, we must continue to invest in the capability we need to defend our sovereignty, perhaps unilaterally.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

I gather, then, that we don't have the capability at this time.

Is it a priority to acquire that capability, so we could defend ourselves on our own if we had to?

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

It's certainly a priority for us. We need to continue building the capability to carry out operations in the Arctic, in all domains.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

At this time, would we have to rely on the U.S. to destroy a missile heading for Canadian territory?

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

That's a complicated question because a threat like that would target the continent and be considered an integrated threat.

I'm going to let General Wright speak to that in more detail.

[MGen Michael Wright]

Thank you.

As the chief of the defence staff mentioned, Russia sees North America as a single target.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

My question is whether the U.S. considers North America a single target.

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

That's a question for the U.S.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

Thank you. I see that there's some work to do in that regard.

Canada closed the door on the American missile defence shield a few years ago. In recent weeks or months, though, Canada has apparently said it would be willing to reconsider its participation in the American missile defence shield.

Where does that process stand? Are any specific issues fuelling that rethink, other than the general threat posed by Russia?

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

I think that's a policy question.

That said, I think policies related to ballistic missile offence are becoming less and less relevant. Now, our allies have adopted the concept of integrated air and missile defence, which is built on three systems: a sensor system, a threat response system, and a command and control system.

Since all the systems are fully integrated into a single network and since there are multiple threats—ranging from hypersonic threats to various missiles including cruise missiles—it's hard to target just one specific threat. Integrated air and missile defence is the concept of the future.

[Christine Normandin, Bloc, Saint-Jean, QC]

If Canada decided to join the missile defence shield, would its contribution be seen as useful? What could Canada contribute?

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

I imagine it might involve sensors and air domain situational awareness.

I'm going to let Mr. Quinn give you more information on that.

[Jonathan Quinn]

Thank you, General.

All of the investments in NORAD modernization that I outlined a few moments ago are relevant to missile defence. While Canada's policy on ballistic missile defence has not changed, Canada has always played a significant role in the warning against attack from all aerospace threats. We'll continue to play that role. The investments in NORAD modernization will enhance our ability to make those contributions.

On the so-called air-breathing threats, cruise missiles are increasingly of concern to the commander of NORAD, primarily because of the rapid development of the very modern variance of cruise missiles from our potential adversaries, and also the perceived—

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

Unfortunately, we're going to leave the answer there.

[Jonathan Quinn]

I'm sorry, Mr. Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, John McKay]

That's all right. Madame Normandin is way over her time.

We'll go to Madame Mathyssen, who of course will not go over her time.

[Lindsay Mathyssen, NDP, London—Fanshawe, ON]

I will continue this line of questioning. I really appreciate everybody being here. It's great to see you in person.

In terms of one of the arguments, long ago, when Canada said we would not participate in ballistic missile defence, a lot of that was because of its efficacy. It had a 50% success rate. It was a huge, huge cost sink.

You are talking now about this integration. How is that changing that situation? How is that changing the efficacy and the cost of it?

[Gen Wayne D. Eyre]

Mr. Chair, in terms of the integration, I'll explain it in a bit more detail and follow on from the other question.

In any air defence system, there are three components. There is a sensor component. The multiple sensors that we are investing in will be able to detect multiple types of threats. There is a defeat mechanism, either pre-launch or postlaunch—think either cyber pre-launch or some sort of intercept postlaunch—and there's a command and control system that brings it all together. It integrates the sensors and the defeat mechanism to be able to make rapid decisions.

As we take a look at the various types of threats that we are facing—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, hypersonics and submarine-launched missiles—it is very difficult to carve out an artificial stovepipe on one type of threat when the command and control is so integrated. That's why the investment in NORAD modernization for command and control that allows us to better integrate those various aspects and be part of understanding what is happening is so important.

I'll ask Mr. Quinn if he has anything else to add on that.

[Jonathan Quinn]

No.