If I could jump in here, in terms of the predictability of this attack on Kyiv, everybody who is familiar with both Russian and Ukrainian politics knew and was trying to say early on that an attack only on the Donbass region makes no sense to Putin. He does not need the Donbass; he already controls it. It was clear a long time ago that the calculus is whether they attack or do not attack. If an attack was going to happen, it was going to be on Kyiv.
That's related to the likelihood of an attack on NATO. I agree with the vice-admiral that an attack on a NATO country is not likely, because he has bigger problems to solve with controlling Ukraine. Even if he manages to take over, it's going to be really hard to control a very hostile Ukrainian population. He would just not have the political or manpower capacity to immediately turn to a NATO country. The chances of an attack on a NATO member are very low right now.