Evidence of meeting #21 for Natural Resources in the 39th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was going.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:10 p.m.
Liberal
Lloyd St. Amand Liberal Brant, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
And thank you, gentlemen, for your presentations.
I have some short questions that can be answered in a tersely worded fashion too.
First, when is it estimated that our reserves of oil will, if ever, run out?
5:10 p.m.
Vice-President, Markets and Fiscal Policy, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
That depends on price, but currently there really is a lot of reserve out there, and as prices move up, the more uneconomical reserve that isn't counted today comes into the fold. So the number I gave you of 175 billion barrels is at today's price and today's technology.
If technology improves and prices change.... The total amount of oil sands in the ground is as big as 1.6 trillion barrels. Now, they believe that only 300 billion of that is recoverable, but if technology changes, it could push it out there.
So I don't see a point where you can say that on this date we will have the end of oil.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
Lloyd St. Amand Liberal Brant, ON
I suppose, then, what you're implying is that if the price of oil plummets rather dramatically, it will no longer be economically viable to extract the oil, etc., so it may come to an end sooner rather than later because of a significant drop in the price.
5:15 p.m.
Vice-President, Markets and Fiscal Policy, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Or some other limitation. That's correct.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
Lloyd St. Amand Liberal Brant, ON
We've heard many presentations. I'm not an engineer; I'm not even a CA like Mr. Cullen. I used to be a lawyer. I don't know a lot about this stuff, but from what I've heard as Joe Canadian, if I can flatter myself for a moment, I have a nagging thought with respect to renewables such as wind and solar. I accept, Mr. Alvarez, what you're saying, but is it Enbridge that is the largest investor in wind energy?
5:15 p.m.
President, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Enbridge, TransCanada, yes.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
Lloyd St. Amand Liberal Brant, ON
I accept that, but I understand that relative to European countries we are way behind in terms of developing renewable energy sources and way behind with respect to wind and solar. To coin a phrase, we've figuratively put all of our eggs into the basket of gas and oil. How comfortable should we be that we're doing enough for renewable energy sources?
I'm concerned that Norway, Germany, and Austria, for instance, are doing a heck of a lot more. We are paying lip service to those sources, but really being driven by this rather healthy profit motive.
5:15 p.m.
President, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
We may have started a little slower, but I would indicate we are catching up and catching up very quickly. It is moving very quickly, but we are going to bump into some growth problems. There are very real limitations right now to transmission capacity and distribution capacity on things like ethanol, biodiesel. There are some practical realities that do come along with this, I can assure you. If it's a way of lowering costs, I'll tell you, industry will pick it up on our side.
Has it been a little slow? I think it has been a little slow in this country, but it is coming and it's coming quickly. I think when you look at the kinds of investments that are being made in Alberta, Quebec, and Ontario in particular, there's going to be a noticeable change in the energy mix, but long term, look at any forecast internationally and fossil fuels---coal, oil, and gas--will dominate past 2050. The International Energy Agency, Shell, BP, pick whichever one you want, until the technology breakthrough is there...the renewables aren't even keeping up with the growth in demand.
5:15 p.m.
Senior Policy Analyst, Pembina Institute
I wouldn't disagree with anything that Pierre said.
I would like to acknowledge your point that Canada is lagging behind, and I think it is something Canadians should be concerned with, given that there seems to be an international acknowledgement that we're headed towards a carbon-constrained future. While fossil fuels will continue to play some role, whether that's in transportation fuels, in plastics, etc., there is an acknowledged need to restrict that consumption or dramatically change how we go about that consumption of fossil fuels.
Part of the mix is absolutely going to be transitioning towards renewable energy, and where Canada has been lagging is not just on the installation of capacity, but the actual development of the technology itself. That's why right now we have to import technology from European countries to put up windmills in Canada. We missed that boat in terms of actually manufacturing some of these technologies and having the know-how in Canada that we can then export to other nations and demonstrate leadership in terms of demonstrating it on the ground here, as well as bolstering our economy by exporting that knowledge and those technologies elsewhere.
November 2nd, 2006 / 5:15 p.m.
Mike Allen Tobique—Mactaquac, CPC
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thank you to the witnesses for being here.
I have a couple of quick questions.
One is about Dan's comments on his point 3.3, “Enhanced Reclamation & Land Offsets”, which he talked about. I want to talk about reclamation for a minute.
I know that Suncor is actually doing some pretty creative work on their consolidated tailings, and they're going to fill their first pond by 2007, I understand. What they've done is substantially reduce their water intensity by 32% and they're using recycled water of up to 82%. What's your take on those percentages? This sounds pretty impressive, that the industry is actually trying to keep up with this and get reclamation projects in gear. I'd like your take on that from both sides.
5:20 p.m.
President, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
On the reclamation, when you're in Fort McMurray you'll see that Syncrude's first pit has been reclaimed; it is now being reforested and has a herd of buffalo on it. You will see that things do change.
There's a lot of things going on, and I think we walk a fine balance, but you need to keep doing better. Whether it's CO2, water recycling, reclamation, consolidation, you name it, we need to keep pushing. The challenge is there, and I would argue the prize is there. It's good, but is it good enough? No, we're going to keep pushing. We have to keep doing better all the time.
5:20 p.m.
Senior Policy Analyst, Pembina Institute
In terms of the question of reclamation, we don't share the same optimism that some of the industry has given to that. There hasn't been the widespread reclamation that would actually demonstrate that they can successfully put back diverse boreal systems. In particular, once both ground water and surface water is moving through these reclaimed areas where you're incorporating tailings material into that landscape, there is the potential liberation of various toxins, etc. What does that mean for the long-term ecological viability?
In terms of water use, there have been improvements on a per barrel basis, but what we've seen amongst all of those companies, and certainly with the new entrants into that industry, is that the total demand for fresh water from the Athabasca River, from ground water, continues to grow very rapidly. And when it comes to that water use, it is for the extraction process. The tailings are a by-product. Consolidated tailings are addressing some of that tailing stream; there are also non-segregating tailings, the mature fine tailings that they currently don't know how they're going to effectively manage in the longer term. The current theory is to use what they call end pit lakes. Pitch that slurry that would still have residual toxins into the end of the pit, cap it with water, and then allow it to drain into the Athabasca.
That's not something that's been demonstrated on a small scale or a large scale, so the industry often notes that these aren't the types of questions you can simply address at a bench scale in a university, and we don't dispute that. We are already taking a gamble with a very significant amount of land, and the question we have is, how much bigger should that gamble become as we have more and more of these projects using these technologies and processes that haven't yet been fully demonstrated or proven?
5:20 p.m.
President, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
There have been significant improvements. There is a lot of work being done, particularly with DFO, about sustainable withdrawals from the Athabasca River. Over time we will need to look at storage. We'll have to look at alternatives to water.
It's a half full, half empty...I hadn't thought of that, seeing that we are talking about water. But anyway, I remain optimistic that the technology piece will come along. Has it all been tested? No, it hasn't. But when you look at the progress over the last 20 years, I remain incredibly bullish that we will get some of those answers.
5:20 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Lee Richardson
Thank you. With that, I think we'll call it a day. It has been a very productive day.
Thank you very much. It's some of the best stuff we've had, but we're also expecting a little more. You're going to provide us with some materials. The clerk has been keeping a note. Maybe we'll have him touch base with you over the next couple of days to confirm what it is we're requesting of you.
I'm advised that other material that has been requested is all in train. Mr. Cullen, you'll have your material tomorrow, and, Madame DeBellefeuille, I think it will be ready Monday, from what I am hearing from the department.
With that, ladies and gentlemen, thank you for today. And to our witnesses again, thank you for your appearance.
The meeting is adjourned.