Thank you very much for the opportunity to speak here today.
Just for clarity's sake, you should have a briefing note from us as well as a set of slides, with green sides on them. I'll be speaking to those. I'm kind of used to PowerPoint and may use it as a crutch, but what can I do? Does everyone have them? Okay.
Just by way of general introduction, I'm the director of M.K. Jaccard and Associates. It's an energy policy consulting firm based in Vancouver. It's a private consulting arm of a research group out of SFU run by Dr. Mark Jaccard. We do any manner of policy associated with energy use and its impacts, so we look at local air quality, energy use, and energy supply. Our bread and butter for the last five to ten years has been climate policy analysis.
Does everybody have those pieces? Okay, I'll just not worry about them.
One of our main tools in all of this--and if you're familiar with the climate policy debate, you may have heard of it--is the CIMS hybrid technology simulation model, which has been used by NRCan, the national climate change process, EC, and the national round table for its recent Getting to 2050 work, in which they advocate carbon pricing for the Canadian economy.
Besides the federal government, we've also done work for the provinces of B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, and Nova Scotia, and we've also been looking at doing work for the cities. We just completed work for the City of Vancouver, and we're looking at other municipalities right now. So we've looked at the entire breadth of jurisdictions in Canada. And it's mainly for climate policy issues.
So that is MKJA. And just so you know, I wear two hats. I have a position at the university, but 80% of my time is spent working as a private consultant.
Just for some general context here--and everyone around the table is going to know this--Canada's targets for reduction in our greenhouse gas are 20% below 2006 levels by 2020 and 60% to 70% by 2050. Kyoto was 6% below 1990. Our actual performance on GHGs has been an increase of 22% over 1990. So we've been going in exactly the wrong direction in all but the last couple of years. Emissions have just started coming down a bit.
In terms of the urban picture with respect to GHGs, the personal transport, commercial buildings, and residential emissions constitute about 40% of emissions, and that's including upstream natural gas processing and upstream production of electricity. If you include a bit of light industry—the urban light industry and urban freight transport—we're looking at about 60% of emissions coming out of our cities, one way or the other.
The other thing is that Canada's population is expected to increase, and most of that increase is going to end up in our cities. So a big part of the whole GHG issue is basically an urban issue, one way or the other, along with all our other urban issues. That gets me to the scope for integrated urban energy systems.
The overarching question with integrated urban energy systems was, what if we could densify our cities, drive less, use transit, and walk more? In other words, all our daily destinations would be brought closer together: work, school, the nursery, shopping, what have you. You would bring our buildings closer together so that we could link them, so that energy could be used, reused, and used again. You would start out with really high-quality energy being burnt once, and then the energy would cascade as heat through several buildings, instead of having a natural gas furnace burning in every one of those buildings.
Also, we would think of buildings as energy producers as well as consumers, using passive and active solar, and waste as fuel. Then, in order to take maximum advantage of this network of small and large energy users and consumers, we would utilize a smart grid that acts more like a web than the one-way flow of energy we're used to. We have a big energy production facility in one place and we pipe all the energy to the consumers. Instead, what we would have is an active web that's looking for the cleanest, cheapest, and most reliable power at all times.
That's the overarching vision, and it has a lot of people excited. The question is how much it has by way of policy and engineering legs.
MKJA was contracted by the QUEST group, the Quality Urban Energy System of Tomorrow, to do a scoping study to see whether there is some way we could lock down some of the quantitative potential in this. What are the megatonnes of emissions that could be attached to reducing emissions here? Are there effective policies that we could implement in order to reduce those emissions?
We did this in a two-part way, and it's shown on the top slide here. First we took a look at a literature review of what's already been done, trying not to reinvent the wheel. The second stage was a quantitative analysis using our simulation model.
With the literature review, we found that on top of energy efficiency and fuel switching—and it's generally agreed that carbon pricing is the most effective way to get really effective reductions from the efficiency of fuel switching—strong and effective policy to induce densification in our cities and integration of the energy system could reduce our urban emissions by 40%-plus; this is in the 10- to 20-year timeframe. If you were trying to go for an absolute maximum, it could be up to 90%, if you completely linked up the energy system in the urban centre.
That's coming from the literature. How useful is it in Canada? What does it count as, in emissions?
We then took the CIMS model, which doesn't do this energy integration stuff all that well because it's non-spatial, and ran a carbon price up to $200 a tonne—which is the maximum, basically, that anybody's expecting to see, because it's seen as the global backstop price for cleaning up all of electricity and running everything on electricity—and then looked at what emissions are left in the urban centres.
If you apply the literature review amount that we found, that 40%, what does it turn into in megatonnes? It turns into a 2020 reduction of about 65 megatonnes. Canada's current emissions are just over 700 megatonnes, so this would be a little under 10% of our net emissions.
When you run that $200-per-tonne carbon charge, we don't get to our targets. We don't get to it with $200 a tonne, but if you add this densification integration policy on top of the $200 a tonne, we no longer have to buy international permits. The 65 megatonnes at $100 a tonne amounts to $6.5 billion a year that we don't have to purchase from somebody else, if we're trying to effectively meet a target in 2020. Or you could use a mix of cheap permits and a mixture of densification integration policy in order to bring in these cost solutions. However, this doesn't come for free. That 65 megatonnes is not something we're going to wish into existence. A fancy PR campaign is not going to make people drive half as much as they do and buy energy efficient everything and move into dense urban condos. You need effective policy to do this.
To get that 40%, you have to halt the geographic expansion of our cities—you have to stop sprawling. Then you identify densification nodes and corridors and provide reliable, safe, fast, and timely transit within those corridors. You change your land use zoning, your property taxation, and your site design permitting to reflect the new urban form you're trying to build.
Our current property taxation system works exactly opposite. If you're trying to densify our cities, it's working exactly opposite. As you go out into sprawled communities, people are paying only an average of the increment on sewers, water pipes, and electricity infrastructure. You should be making them pay for every additional amount. In the dense corridors, you should be paying less tax per unit than you'd pay on the edge, but we're all paying the average. Apply full costs in externality pricing on energy, water, and waste, and implement some form of demand and supply planning and policy for water, waste, and energy services to make this new urban structure work.
That was phase one that we did for QUEST. You cannot hang large government policy on a scoping study like this. Given that there seemed to be some potential here, QUEST asked us to look at a work plan for something more quantitative, with more foundation to it. We proposed to take the best of the various disciplines involved—policy, economics, land use, transport, waste—and build it up into a credible national study that could be used to support this kind of policy.
The problem is, you're asking academics and experts who hardly ever work together to work together. Believe it or not, transport modellers rarely talk to land use planners or climate change economists. For some reason, this is what occurs. So the idea was to bring the best of all this together in one study.
The method we suggested—and this is just a proposed work plan—was to use the CIMS model and the energy technology simulation model as the integrating template. As you reduce electricity and natural gas in our cities, you want to know how much emissions are reduced in the natural gas fields and by electricity producers.
But instead of using literature values to actually get that densification happening in the cities and to get the energy integration, we used specialized land use transport and energy models in order to build three archetypes—a small, medium, and large city under three different scenarios: (1) a reference case where we continue to build our cities as we have continued to do with sprawling suburbs on the edges; (2) raising of technology standards, where you make the technologies as sufficient as possible, and this would be in conjunction with some form of carbon price; (3) adopting moderate and aggressive policies that promote densification energy integration, so you can see what's happening. QUEST is trying to get up enough support to make this happen.
First and foremost, the urban form is a public policy choice. It doesn't just happen; we choose it. We choose it with our municipal zoning. We choose it with our urban planning. We choose it with the provincial acts that govern how our municipalities run. We choose it with how we use our federal infrastructure funds when we're leveraging new roads, transit projects, what have you. It's a public policy choice. In other words, we can choose sprawling car-orientated cities or we can choose dense, walkable, and safe cities. This is something that's in the hands of policy makers.
Second, densification and integrated multi-stage use of energy between industry, buildings, and residences can reduce greenhouse gases, local air pollutants, and energy use all at once. If you do it right, it will also improve urban livability.
As I said, the issue is multi-jurisdictional. Municipalities have a big role to play here, but they're governed by the provincial acts that govern the rules. And then the federal government has a role to play here, in terms of how it leverages infrastructure funds.
Finally, as the other experts were saying at the table, we lack complete tools for assessing integrated approaches. But phase two is a movement in that direction.
I guess my concluding remarks are that we have some of the best resources in the world here in Canada, in terms of urban planning, energy management, waste water management, and what have you. We basically have all the tools to guide the coming infrastructure rebuild in a sound direction for the long term—for the next 50 to 100 years, not just to get out of the recessionary hole we happen to find ourselves in right now.
That's it. Thank you.