Good morning, everybody. Thanks for the invitation to come here.
I'll just tell you a little bit about myself first. I'm an emeritus professor at the University of New Brunswick in the faculty of forestry and environmental management. I joined UNB as dean in 1999, and before that, I spent 21 years with the Canadian Forest Service working on the spruce budworm's effects on forest. My background is forest ecology, not forest entomology. I look at budworm from the forest's standpoint rather than from the insect's standpoint. I have 40 years of experience now. I began my career on the Cape Breton Highlands in 1978, when a huge budworm outbreak ended up killing 87% of the fir trees in 30 plots that we maintained across the highlands.
I'm also the lead scientist of the Healthy Forest Partnership, which I believe you heard about in a previous session. There's an early intervention spruce budworm research project going on in New Brunswick right now. I'll speak more about that a little later.
I thought I'd start off with a little bit of background about spruce budworm. These are five facts about budworm.
It's a native insect. It has evolved with our balsam fir and spruce forests. To some extent, it serves the same ecological function that forest fires serve with Jack pine, which is a recycling of stands. It kills off the overstorey trees and there's often the advanced regeneration of balsam fir, at least in some areas, or of intolerant hardwood species, which are underneath and ready to take over when the stand recycles.
Budworm larvae strongly prefer to eat the new shoots. They really only eat the new shoots. They do this repeatedly year after year, and outbreaks typically last about 10 years. Trees start to die after about four or five years. The real problem with budworm outbreaks is the huge amount of mortality that results in certain stand types. My rules of thumb are to expect 85% mortality in older balsam fir stands, expect 35% to 40% mortality in older spruce stands—and by “older” I mean 50- to 60-year-old mature ones—and expect the same with young fir.
For the trees that survive, there's also stemwood growth production that's going on as well. Probably about 90% of the stemwood production is reduced during periods of active defoliation.
Although budworm fir forests can be viewed as ecologically resilient—it will come back from it, it's not destroyed—from an economic standpoint it's devastating because of this huge amount of mortality that occurs.
In research at the University of New Brunswick, a couple of Ph.D. students working on both the timber supply effects of outbreaks and the socio-economic effects of those timber supplies projected a cost of up to $15.3 billion over the next 40 years if an outbreak similar to what happened in Cape Breton in the 1970s were to occur now. This translates into 57,000 person-years of lost employment and mill closures that would result from this. There would be about a one-third reduction in annual allowable cut.
We do have very accurate models and decision support systems for spruce budworm because there has been interest in this insect for a long time. They've been in development since the early 1990s.
There are essentially five management options for dealing with a spruce budworm outbreak.
The first option is to do nothing and to just accept the mortality that will occur.
The second option is silviculture before an outbreak to try to restructure the forest to reduce the most damaging stand types. This focuses on reducing balsam fir. It's definitely the one that is killed the most.
The third option is to salvage during an outbreak or after the outbreak. You have a narrow time window with that. You only have two to four years or so when the trees are still usable. It's tricky because the trees don't all die at once. They die over a period of time. Also, it's usually happening over huge areas so logistically it's very difficult to make a big effect through salvage.
The fourth option is foliage protection by using biological insecticides. We're not using chemicals at all now. Bacillus thuringiensis and tebufenozide are two biologically acting insecticides that could be used. In the past, they would have been used in a reactive sense to keep trees alive. They'd let defoliation happen for at least two years and then start spraying to keep the trees alive.
The fifth option is an early intervention strategy. We really don't know for sure that it will work, but after four years of trials it has been working so far. This is also an insecticide application, but it's done way earlier in the outbreak, before you start to see defoliation occurring.
The Healthy Forest Partnership is a consortium that's been running this early intervention strategy project. Phase one was from 2014 to 2018—$18 million, with $10 million coming through the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency and a number of others. Then phase two was approved by the federal government in the last budget, with $75 million through Natural Resources Canada, with a 60:40 funding match, so an additional 40% is required from provinces and industry across Atlantic Canada.
What is the early intervention strategy? It really comes down to a very simple concept: intensive monitoring and early detection of hot spots when populations are just beginning to rise, so with approximately 2,000 sample points across northern New Brunswick with three trees sampled in each of the public points. This is really intensive monitoring. Then there is small-area, targeted, biological pesticide application to reduce the populations in those hot spots.
The third element of it is research on tools and techniques to try to disrupt budworm moth mating and migration. There is a big outbreak going on in Quebec right now. We periodically get influxes of moths from Quebec.
Evidence so far after four years of treatment suggests that the early intervention strategy appears to be working. Our target is to keep populations below seven larvae per branch. The second instar larvae stage is the overwintering stage. They are really tiny, but they are the ones that will grow to do the feeding in the following summer. We're doing this much earlier than previous treatments. We're treating with insecticides all areas that have budworm, regardless of land ownership. The provincial regulations are such that an individual landowner can opt out if they choose. There's a very sophisticated contact and communication with landowners to inform them of what's going on and why. So far we've had about 2% of private landowners opt out across the four years. It requires a very strong provincial commitment and communications component.
We've been treating increasing areas over the period. It was about 5,000 hectares in the very first year, in 2014, and it was up to 225,000 hectares in 2018, this past year. Budworm populations in the treated blocks have been consistently reduced by about 70% through our treatments.
In general, areas are not being treated in successive years. The areas that were treated in 2017 typically weren't treated again in 2018. Following four years of treatments, the Quebec-New Brunswick border is evident from the air. You can fly over it and see the defoliation on the Quebec side and not on the New Brunswick side. Aerial surveys flying aircraft over to detect defoliation detected 2,500 hectares of defoliation in New Brunswick in 2017, and only 500 hectares in 2018, in comparison with 2.5 million hectares in Gaspésie and Baie-St.-Laurent, immediately on the other side of the border. In the budworm population, the second instar larvae populations are much higher in adjacent Quebec than in New Brunswick.
The key successes so far are reducing budworm populations, and the innovative science with broad, practical applications. There's a very successful public engagement and citizen science component to the program. We've really been trying to get out ahead with communications by talking to mayors, town councils, individual landowners and the media in the affected areas. We've been avoiding serious defoliation in the wood supply losses, and we've developed a unique and powerful partnership among industry, universities, governments and communities.
I have five recommendations of what can be done to protect the Canadian forest sector from the spread of forest pests, which is your mandate.
The first one I would state is to support Natural Resources Canada's Canadian Forest Service science program because CFS has the largest entomology expertise for dealing with native and introduced forest insects in Canada.
The second is somewhat self-serving, but I say continue to support the Healthy Forest Partnership early intervention strategy research project. We're very grateful to the federal government for the funding that has been provided for this. This is the first attempt anywhere to conduct, area-wide within the province of New Brunswick, population management of a native insect. One of my colleagues calls it whack-a-mole. They are starting to come up here, and we whack them back down with the insecticide treatment.
My third recommendation is to seek input from provinces and industry on what their most important forest pest problems are and to require innovative research approaches to pest management, not just business-as-usual approaches. All federal funding to protect the Canadian forest sector should be in partnership with the provinces.
My fourth recondition is to use the Healthy Forest Partnership as a model for other innovative research partnerships with provinces, researchers, communities and universities. We currently have over 20 partners. As a sub-thought to that, it's critical that provinces be onside and be committed to their required contributions. With a 60:40 funding split, it doesn't work if the provinces aren't onside. Communication is really important.
My last point is that one important area that is difficult to research on meaningful temporal and spatial scales, because it requires very large areas and long time periods, is the use of silviculture and forest management to change the forest landscape to reduce future pest outbreaks. This is a specific area where the federal government resources, in partnership with industry and provinces, could help with the establishment of some long-term forest landscape restructuring studies.
Thank you.