Natural Resources Committee on Feb. 10th, 2026

[Jonathan Rowe, Conservative, Terra Nova—The Peninsulas, NL]

Thank you for having me here today.

My first question is for Mr. Nuttall.

You mentioned transfer payments. It's been an interesting topic. Newfoundland and Labrador was a have-not province for a long time, perhaps since Confederation, but under Conservative governments, we leaned into our oil revenues and offshore oil, and 25% of our GDP now comes from oil and gas. We are slightly a have-not province now. Recently, under the new Liberal government, and because of the anti-oil regulations that have dried up investment in the offshore, we've now had to rely on transfer payments once again.

Would you like to expand on the statement you made earlier about transfer payments and their connection to oil and gas? More specifically, is there a business case for Newfoundland and Labrador's offshore natural gas, and perhaps an opportunity for us to come off transfer payments once again and be self-sustaining?

[Eric Nuttall]

Maybe I can refocus the conversation.

I think we all need to agree on a few basic facts. The Canadian oil and gas sector is the heartbeat of the Canadian economy. It generates $100 billion of GDP per year and is roughly 25% of our net exports. That's the basis.

It is true that your province is an excellent example of how economic benefits can generate and flow through to their citizens. When I think of other provinces that are not adopting this and have significant onshore natural gas shale deposits north of one of the largest export markets on the planet, perhaps they could be doing better.

In the world that I envision in the next several years, Canadian companies are not going onshore. Again, we have the luxury of having a lot of different, good projects to go after, specifically in the oil sands and some conventional oil projects. I can envision a world in the next couple of years where the future of this sector is offshore. It will be the oil sands and will be offshore. I see a very optimistic future for us.

[Jonathan Rowe, Conservative, Terra Nova—The Peninsulas, NL]

I don't mean to cut you off, but I am going to give the rest of my time to Mr. Lloyd.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Mr. Lloyd, you have about one minute.

[Dane Lloyd, Conservative, Parkland, AB]

Thank you.

Mr. Nuttall, I know a lot of investors were concerned about Venezuela with the recent stuff going on there. How do we make Canada more competitive in light of the fact that more Venezuelan heavy oil barrels will be coming onto the market?

It may not be for a very long time, but certainly it doesn't appear that President Trump and the Venezuelan government will be investing in massive carbon capture projects in Venezuela. How do we make Canada more competitive in the face of that?

[Eric Nuttall]

It is exceptionally important that we diversify our customer base. No business would want a customer concentration risk of 90% to 97%. That is what we have right now for our largest net export. It's insanity.

An additional strategic benefit, which maybe can't be measured in dollars, would be a pipeline to the west coast. I've given up hope on energy east running through a particular province, but a new pipeline to the west coast, where we can access Asian thirst for our oil, would go a great way toward diversifying our customer concentration risk.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Thank you both.

Wrapping up, we'll go to Mr. Gasparro for three precious minutes.

[Vince Gasparro, Liberal, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON]

Thank you both for attending.

Mr. Nuttall, as a recovering investment banker, I recall watching you on BNN. You were very forthright in some of the interviews I saw of you. It's great to see you here and that nothing has changed.

The International Energy Agency produced a report, “Oil 2025”, a long-term forecast. The report says that global oil demand could grow by about 2.5 million barrels per day from 2024 to 2030, with annual growth fading over time, plateauing at about 105.5 million barrels per day and hitting peak demand around 2030, with the growth rate slowing after that.

I want to get a line of sight on this. With that mid-term outlook from the International Energy Agency, what type of offtake agreements do we need to see for Canadian oil and gas? In terms of duration, price and credit quality, what do we need to see to have the long-term sustainability of Canadian oil getting to market?

[Eric Nuttall]

You've referenced the International Energy Agency. They've typically been on the lower end of demand forecasts. Traditionally, they haven't been terrific forecasters.

There's a wide base of opinions on whether 2030 is peak demand or 2050. In the end, what we have is growth in demand plus the need to offset something called “production decline”. From the 15,000 fields the IEA studied late last year, they found that decline rates are increasing. That means that for Canada, our role is not just satisfying demand growth, but helping offset the declines in production.

I think in the not-too-distant future, there will be a heavy call on every single barrel that we can possibly produce. That's why with the time frame for a new million-barrel-per-day pipeline to the west coast—if it is in fact eight to 10 years—we're now up against the clock.

However, I'm not concerned about thirst for our oil. The minister who was in India referenced that India would buy every barrel that we would have. They want our natural gas. I think there's a global thirst for incremental Canadian barrels.

[Vince Gasparro, Liberal, Eglinton—Lawrence, ON]

I'm going off of what the IEA is saying. I don't necessarily disagree with your previous point, but would it lead to a suggestion that there are some market forces that will hinder long-term oil production? That's question one or point one.

Point two, does it make sense for us to continue to diversify our energy mix, to diversify into renewables, conservation, etc., with these long-term market forces, according to the IEA?

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Give a quick response, please.

[Eric Nuttall]

I would be worried about Canada diversifying into other areas with virtually low- to no-margin industries with zero barriers of entry, because as we've seen in recent actions by Stellantis and General Motors, there are challenges to doing that.

We really need an all-of-the-above solution. I'm the biggest proponent of championing oil and gas, and also perhaps investing in other areas, because the demand for all forms of energy continues to set new highs year after year.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Thank you, Mr. Gasparro.

Thank you to our witnesses. I think you'll agree there was a very robust exchange on this panel, with diverse opinions expressed, which is, of course, the nature of democracy. We really appreciate you being with us. If there's additional information you want to forward to the committee through a brief, we welcome it. Again, we thank you for your participation this afternoon.

Colleagues, we are now adjourned.