Natural Resources Committee on May 26th, 2026

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Colleagues, let me call this meeting to order and welcome you back from our constituency weeks. I hope they were productive for you and your teams.

I also welcome our wayward travellers to Scandinavia, who I understand had a great trip. I hope we'll get some feedback from Gaétan, Corey and Mario.

As you know, our forestry study is still a work in progress.

With that, colleagues, I would like to acknowledge that we're meeting on the unceded territory of the Algonquin Anishinabe nation.

This is meeting number 38 of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Natural Resources. Today's meeting is taking place in a hybrid format.

I'd like to remind participants of the following points: Before speaking, please wait until I recognize you. Those participating by video conference, click on the microphone icon to activate your mic, and please mute yourself when you are not speaking.

I would like to remind witnesses that committee members may ask questions in either French or English. If you need interpretation, please take a moment now to prepare your earpiece and select the listening channel you need in order to take full advantage of the time allotted for questions and answers.

As well, think of our amazing interpreters. If you would kindly not talk too fast or bang things around your microphone, I know that our interpreters would appreciate that, as would we.

Members participating in person or on Zoom, please raise your hand if you wish to speak. The committee clerk and I will do our best to maintain a consolidated speaking order. I will also remind you that all comments should be addressed through the chair.

Pursuant to Standing Order 108(2) and the motion adopted on Thursday, April 23, 2026, the committee shall commence its study of Canada's electrification, energy self-sufficiency and domestic energy security.

I would like to welcome our witnesses. There's a long list, colleagues, so bear with me.

From the Canadian Energy Regulator, we have Darren Christie, chief economist, and Ganesh Doluweera, technical leader, energy outlooks, joining us by video conference.

From the Department of Crown-Indigenous Relations and Northern Affairs, we have Joanna Ankersmit, acting assistant deputy minister, northern affairs organization.

From the Department of Natural Resources, we have Drew Leyburne, assistant deputy minister, energy systems sector; André Bernier, director general, electricity systems branch, energy systems sector; and Michael Rau, director general, policy and planning branch, fuels sector.

From Environment and Climate Change Canada, we have Megan Nichols, assistant deputy minister, and Karishma Boroowa, director, electricity and combustion division.

All of our virtual witnesses have conducted a mandatory witness onboarding test, and each of our delegations will have five minutes for their opening remarks. Then we will open the floor to questions.

I'll go first to Mr. Christie, representing the Canadian Energy Regulator.

You have the floor for five minutes, Mr. Christie.

[Darren Christie, Chief Economist, Canadian Energy Regulator]

Thank you. Good morning.

Good morning, everyone.

Thank you for inviting the Canada Energy Regulator to appear before you today.

My name is Darren Christie, chief economist at the CER. I am joined today by Dr. Ganesh Doluweera, our technical leader for energy outlooks.

I am appearing before you today from Calgary, Alberta, located within Treaty 7 Territory, the traditional territories of the Blackfoot Confederacy, which includes the Siksika, Piikani and Kainai first nations. Treaty 7 is also home to the Tsuut'ina first nation, and the Stoney Nakoda, including the Chiniki, Bearspaw and Goodstoney first nations.

I would also like to recognize the Métis that have settled in southern Alberta and call this place home.

Recognizing that the CER has broadly described its mandate in other recent appearances before this committee, I will briefly elaborate on the CER's electricity mandate today, given its prominence in your study.

The CER's electricity mandate, as set out in the CER Act, includes regulating the construction and operation of international power lines and designated interprovincial power lines, offshore renewable energy projects and offshore power lines, and electricity exports. The mandate also includes providing supply and markets information.

Provinces regulate development, conservation and management of sites within a province for the generation and production of electrical energy, as expressly stated in the Constitution. As a result, the CER's role in electricity is relatively limited. The electricity mandate that we do have comprises two broad components: the adjudication function and the energy information function. I will address each in turn.

There are two separate aspects to the CER's electricity adjudication function: construction and operation of international and interprovincial power lines; and electricity exports.

Before constructing an international power line, applicants must apply for either a permit or a certificate. Currently, there are approximately 125 CER-issued permits and certificates, and the CER regulates approximately 1,500 km of international power lines.

The second aspect of our adjudication process concerns electricity exports. The commission issues permits or licenses to companies to export electricity internationally. In assessing an export application, the CER can only consider the effect of the exports on neighbouring provinces and fair market access for Canadians.

The CER does not regulate electricity imports or interprovincial electricity trade.

Beyond adjudication, the CER is also responsible for advising and reporting on energy matters. As part of this, in March, the CER released the latest edition of its flagship energy future series, “Canada's Energy Future 2026: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050”, which explores four possible scenarios for Canadian energy over the long term. These include a baseline current measures scenario, reflecting policies in place as of November 2025, as well as higher and lower scenarios that produce a range around the current measures scenario and a net-zero emissions scenario.

I'd like to highlight a few key findings from EF 2026 that we believe are relevant to your current study.

First, electricity generation grows in every scenario through 2050, driven by electrification of existing energy end uses, economic and population growth, and new demands in areas such as hydrogen production and data centres. Depending on the scenario, electricity demand is expected to increase between 30% and 120% from 2023 levels, resulting in installed generation capacity's rising substantially from roughly 160 gigawatts in 2023 to between 270 and 400 gigawatts by 2050.

Wind power accounts for the largest share of new capacity, supported by growth in hydro, solar, nuclear batteries and natural gas with carbon capture. Additionally, interprovincial transmission interties play a growing role in balancing supply and demand variations across provincial systems, with interprovincial transmission capacity growing roughly 70% by 2050 in all scenarios.

“Canada's Energy Future 2026” also provides some analysis of energy self-sufficiency and security. In particular, it highlights that, in most scenarios, central Canada's substantial dependence on natural gas and crude oil produced in, or transiting through, the U.S. would continue based on current pipeline configuration. Only in the Canada net-zero scenario does central Canada use significantly less natural gas and refined petroleum products by 2050, which could reduce the region's reliance on energy coming from or through the U.S.

In closing, the CER remains ready to assess all applications we receive and will continue to provide timely, evidence-based energy information to inform the energy conversation in Canada.

Thank you for the opportunity to discuss these issues with you today.

We look forward to answering your questions.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Thank you so much, Mr. Christie.

We're now going to move on to Mr. Leyburne, who's representing NRCan.

You have five minutes, sir.

[Drew Leyburne, Assistant Deputy Minister, Energy Systems Sector, Department of Natural Resources]

Good morning. Thank you, Chair.

As you know, energy is foundational to Canada's economy, competitiveness and national resilience. Canadians rely on secure and affordable energy every day to heat their homes, power businesses, move goods, support industry and connect communities across our country.

Canada starts from a position of considerable strength. We have abundant resources, a diverse energy mix, strong institutions, significant infrastructure and deeply integrated trade relationships.

However, energy security is never a given. Current geopolitical instability reminds us just how interconnected global energy markets are. Events taking place thousands of miles away can have repercussions on our energy systems, and thus on our economy and daily lives.

Changing trade dynamics, extreme weather, aging infrastructure, cyber-threats, supply chain pressures and rising demand affect not only global markets but also Canada's domestic ability to produce, move, store and deliver energy reliably and affordably. That is why energy security must be understood as more than supply alone. It is about the resilience of the full energy system: production, transportation, storage, refining, distribution, emergency preparedness, infrastructure protection and the ability to respond quickly when disruptions occur.

In the Canadian context, the concept of energy independence also requires nuance. As a major energy producer and exporter, energy independence should not mean self-isolation. It is better understood as the capacity to make sovereign choices to produce, move, secure and trade energy in ways that best support Canadian interests.

With this in mind, we recently published a national strategy for an electricity-based Canadian economy.

The national electricity strategy is anchored on the idea that electricity is foundational to competitiveness and that growing the electricity sector in an affordable manner is key to both economic prosperity and reducing emissions. Canada already has one of the cleanest grids in the world, with about 80% of electricity powered by non-emitting sources. Building the infrastructure to double Canada's electricity systems will require generational investments in transmission, generation, distribution, storage and grid modernization.

The electrification of the economy is essential to reducing emissions while supporting long-term competitiveness.

The strategy acknowledges where electricity is provincial or territorial jurisdiction and calls for even closer collaboration with provinces and territories, utilities, indigenous partners, industry investors and other partners.

Work has already begun, notably with Bill S‑4, which aims to modernize the Energy Efficiency Act and pave the way for modern demand management programs.

We will expand support for energy-saving retrofits for up to one million households through financing, grants and complementary measures. We have also committed to exploring expanded support for interprovincial transmission through investment tax credits and the development of a new comprehensive transmission interconnect investment strategy for interties.

However, national energy security is obviously not limited to electricity. It encompasses all energy sources, systems, infrastructure and capabilities on which Canadians and the Canadian economy depend. Canada has a major asset: the abundance and diversity of its energy resources, ranging from oil and natural gas to hydroelectricity, nuclear power and renewable energy.

Canada is also a fuels leader, holding about 10% of the world's proven oil reserves and 3% of its proven natural gas reserves, while accounting for roughly 9% of global exports and 7% of gas exports. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed to a significant and sustained disruption in global oil and gas markets.

Although Canada is less exposed to direct crude oil shortages thanks to integrated and diversified supply chains, it is not immune to the effects of the global context, which Canadians are already feeling through rising and volatile energy prices.

Canada supports global stability as a dependable supplier of responsibly produced energy, with LNG Canada exporting approximately 14 million tonnes per year and the Trans Mountain pipeline with the capacity to send up to 890,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

Alongside future LNG, LPG and oil exports from projects under construction, we are reinforcing our alliances while supporting economic growth and prosperity at home.

Energy security requires hand in hand co-operation between the federal government and provincial and territorial partners.

It is not a matter of dictating solutions to them, but of understanding their reality and challenges and strengthening joint planning, coordination and a collective response to emergencies.

In closing, Canada approaches this study from a position of strength, but it is also a time of growing pressure on energy systems. Electricity, energy security and energy independence are closely connected. The common objective is a reliable, affordable and resilient energy system for Canadians now and in the future.

Thank you.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Thank you, Mr. Leyburne.

Thank you to our presenters for two very comprehensive presentations.

We will now move on to questions, as we always do.

We're going to start with Mr. Tochor for six minutes.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

Thank you, Chair.

Thank you to our witnesses for appearing today.

For our natural resources officials, we hear of modelling in which we need to double electricity. I've heard it from multiple sources. I want to understand. Has the department modelled out what that would look like?

[Drew Leyburne]

Mr. Chair, I might direct the question to the energy regulator, which has done some of that scenario building.

[Darren Christie]

Thank you for the question.

In our energy futures report, we have four different scenarios.

The amount of demand growth is endogenous and is a result of the kind of bottom-up construction scenario we've done. What we see, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, depending on the scenario, is that demand goes up by 30% to 120% above 2023 levels by 2050.

We model how the electricity grid responds, based on assumptions around such things as costs of different generation technologies, the efficiencies of those technologies and so on.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

On that example, then, let's take the low end. If there's a 30% increase by 2050, what does that cost?

[Darren Christie]

I don't have the exact cost numbers at my fingertips. What I can say, as noted in the report, is that when we look at the cost of electricity on a per unit basis, we see it increasing in the future. That increase is fairly similar to the rate of increase that we've seen in recent history, and it's also going forward pretty close to the general rate of inflation.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

Just to confirm, you have the numbers. They're just not with you right now.

[Darren Christie]

What we have is the cost. We have a cost number. It doesn't include some elements of the provincial systems specifically, but it includes large transmission as well as generation. What I just noted in terms of the cost impacts relative to inflation does include some assumptions around those provincial components as well.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

Could I get you to table those costs, along with which costs are associated with which provinces? We have a concern about affordability in Canada. There are some provinces that are suffering more than others. As much as all Canadians have been suffering for the last 10 years, it's been more acute in other areas. I would be interested in the tabling of those numbers.

On the process of this modelling that you guys have done, when was the last time this modelling was done? Say it's 20 years ago: Is there a report that showed what we might need today?

[Darren Christie]

Yes, over time, the exact frequency has varied, but it's a report that has at times come out annually. This most recent one was almost three years after the last one, but somewhere in that 20-year range, certainly, we would have another one.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

Could you table the report that came out 20 to 25 years ago and your response on how accurate that modelling would be? I'll ask you to table that after the meeting.

Also, I question what assurances Canadians would have that this electricity strategy is not another white elephant.

[Drew Leyburne]

I can take that one, given that we were responsible for the electricity strategy.

We took a pragmatic approach to developing the electricity strategy in working really closely with our colleagues in provinces and territories. We spoke to electricity utilities and end-users and tried to get at the best sense of what some of the most realistic expectations were about the progression of the electricity system over the next few decades.

As for your earlier question, our strategy notes that this is a significant financial undertaking. It's over $1 trillion. Actually, if you ask Electricity Canada, the number they see is closer to $2 trillion, but that needs to be observed against the baseline of tens of billions of dollars of electricity spending that is already happening and has been happening year over year for decades.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

So that viewers at home understand, when was the last time we had electricity shortfalls as we're experiencing now or are modelled for the near future?

[Drew Leyburne]

The last couple of years have been somewhat anomalous, in that a number of hydro projects have underproduced compared with traditional production because of climate-induced drought.

André, you might be able to talk about the longer trajectory.

[André Bernier, Director General, Electricity Systems Branch, Energy Systems Sector, Department of Natural Resources]

Thank you very much for the question.

Canada is fortunate to have a very reliable electricity system. The challenge—if I could propose a reframing—would be less shortfall and more constrained opportunity, in the sense that, if you don't have the power available, you're not necessarily able to attract new power-intensive industry. There are moments when you come up a bit short. I know Alberta's grid was a little more challenged a couple of years ago, but they've added a lot of capacity since then.

From Canada's perspective, it's probably more about a limit on opportunity as opposed to the active risk of not having enough electricity at any given moment.

[Corey Tochor, Conservative, Saskatoon—University, SK]

Thank you very much to the witnesses for being here today. Thanks for giving us a strategy to keep the lights on.

[The Chair, Liberal, Terry Duguid]

Thank you, Mr. Tochor.

We're going on to Mr. Guay for six minutes.

[Claude Guay, Liberal, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, QC]

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Mr. Leyburne, you mentioned that the national electricity strategy is produced under the leadership of NRCan. The one thing that touched everyone's imagination is the ambition to double it by 2050.

Can you go further into NRCan's role in helping provinces and territories plan the scale to build out, while respecting the jurisdiction of each province?

[Drew Leyburne]

I'm going to hand it over to my colleague André because he's dealing with this every day.

[André Bernier]

Thank you for the question.

I want to begin by acknowledging that the Constitution is the beginning point and end point for understanding who the primary decision-maker is.

The federal government is looking at this from the perspective of partnership. As you go from east to west, geography plays a large role in determining what options provinces have. Some have abundant hydro resources. Others have wind or natural gas. Others have built out a nuclear fleet. The posture of the strategy is one of partnership and collaboration. It would not be for us to dictate what the priority should be, but rather to be responsive to the provinces' initiatives. For example, Ontario clearly has ambitions to build out its available nuclear supply. It's about acting in support of that.

Bilateral conversations and regional conversations are critical to success, from our perspective. We don't want to be dictating what the electricity mix should look like from Ottawa.

[Claude Guay, Liberal, LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, QC]

I will now speak in French.

You mentioned different regions. Let's talk about eastern Canada and Quebec. We know that as we speak, Quebec is facing certain capacity constraints. Meanwhile, there are projects under discussion, such as wind projects in the Maritimes, in Nova Scotia and the Gull Island hydroelectric project in Labrador.

Can you tell us how Natural Resources Canada views these projects, and discuss the positive impacts they can have for Canadians and Quebeckers?