Mr. Speaker, today we have a good example of the financial trouble we are in: a government which does not do anything, which does not realize the magnitude of the problem, and an extreme right wing opposition ready to impose a drastic remedy on all citizens.
Allow me to come back to the Reform Party's motion, although I do not feel it is worthwhile spending a great deal of time on it. Many of the things we do in this House are not always very helpful, and we are maintaining this tradition this morning.
If we have a quick look at government finances, we see that, first of all, this year's deficit will still hover around $38 billion. We will continue to get into debt for the 24th year in a row. Our debt will exceed $545 billion, while interest rates will add $85,000 a minute to our debt.
Our structural deficit is $28 billion, which means that even with phenomenal growth and a fully functioning economy, this deficit would persist. The Canadian economy is plagued by many structural problems. The Reform Party's discussion paper does not have much to say on this. Interest on the debt amounted to $38 billion last year and will reach $45 billion this year.
Our external debt represents 44 per cent of our total debt. When referring to our external debt, we must also take into account provincial governments, municipalities and businesses. Forty-four per cent of our economic activity is in foreign hands. The problem with foreign debt is that our savings rate is insufficient and our economy is far from operating at its full potential.
I will also touch on what our Reform friends are suggesting this morning. I find it hard to call them "friends" when I read their document. This paper is a all-out attack against Quebec. Let us see what policy sectors they are going after. As we know, because of history and a number of factors, Quebec receives equalization payments, social assistance and unemployment insurance from the federal government.
These are the only sectors where federalists can say that they send Quebec more money than they receive from it. There is no reason to boast about sending Quebec more money in these sectors, whether it is social assistance, unemployment insurance or equalization payments.
This is how they compensate for the fact that Quebec does not get its fair share of subsidies allowing it to better structure its economy, as in research and development and other such sectors. They compensate with transfers, a kind of social assistance for the provinces.
Today, Reformers are telling us: "We will put some order into this. Not only will we not touch those sectors where Quebec is at a disadvantage, but we will cut UI, social assistance and equalization payments". The figures speak for themselves.
The Reform vision would include cutting a total of $15 billion from our social security system. That includes $3 billion in equalization payments. As we all know, equalization is one area where Quebec receives a fairly substantial amount. It does not work out to much per capita, for instance, but since our population is larger, the total amount is still quite substantial.
They want to cut in this area. They also want to cut $2.5 billion in welfare payments and $3.4 billion in unemployment insurance. These are the three biggest items they want to cut, but they also want to cut $6.6 billion in cash transfers to the
provinces. This is incredible, and I am amazed that they failed to consider the regional impact of this so-called budget.
Perhaps the Reform Party should stop and think what the consequences and the impact of this budget would be on the Maritimes. They would also cut in other areas such as funding for official bilingualism and multiculturalism and the rest.
It is my impression that the Reform Party still acts like a regional party, a party whose vision does not go beyond the few regions it represents, a party that is incapable of looking at Canada as a whole, which is typical of the political situation in this country today. And it also says a lot about the future of a party that hopes to govern Canada someday. I would not wish this on any Canadian. In any case, we may not be around, but I would feel sorry for Canadians if they were ever governed by a party like the Reform Party. Besides, it would not be in the best interests of Quebecers for Canadians to suffer the impact of the lack of vision of these people on their social policies.
Just consider other cuts they would make. Three billion dollars cut from pension benefits. Three billion dollars, which works out to a 15 per cent cut in the income security system for senior citizens. Are they going to apply those cuts across the board? Fifteen per cent of everybody's pension cheques? Is that what they want to do? Hard to say. They do some simple arithmetic and come up with $3 billion, just like that.
They would make additional cuts totalling $3.4 billion in unemployment insurance, although they know perfectly well that this year, the Unemployment Insurance Fund will generate a very high surplus. They probably want to let the surplus accumulate or reduce premiums. It is not clear how they want to do that.
They would also make cuts of $200 million in funding for education. We know that they supported Minister Axworthy's plan that would raise tuition fees and let students pay a larger share of education costs. So it is not surprising that the Reform Party should suggest that. I am not sure what we should call this document, to do it justice. Perhaps we should call it an essay that would hardly get a passing mark.
There are another $10 billion in cuts that should be examined more closely, but basically, it is an all out attack against social programs and especially those that benefit Quebec.
What is the basis of the Reform Party's approach? It is generated by some kind of conservative ideology according to which the rich drive the economy and our social programs have burdened us with debt, and the only solution is to make drastic cuts in those programs in order to put public finances on a sound footing.
Their document does not talk about tax equity. Not at all. It does not talk much about fighting the underground economy. It does not mention the tax treatment of corporations or businesses because according to them, these are the people who generate economic activity and they should be praised for doing so. Their god is the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith at its best. Government has no place in the economy or the social sector, and if they could privatize social security completely, they would. But of course, they cannot go all out in that respect.
I heard them say in their introduction that they were proud of what they had done, proud of this document. If this document were actually in effect, however, I doubt they would be quite so proud about facing people in the street, sinking ever deeper into poverty.
Clearly they took their inspiration to some extent from the model provided by Alberta, which is going to fix up its public finances and will succeed in getting out of the deficit. However, one has to understand the Alberta model. Yesterday, there was a very good report on Le Point . If I am not mistaken, 30,000 welfare recipients have left Alberta. Where have they gone? Whose responsibility have they become? It is easy to do something in isolation, but others have to carry the cost of it. Where are they now? In British Columbia, Manitoba or Saskatchewan, and surely being provided for by another provincial government.
Some of them will no doubt re-enter the labour market, but still. So it is easy to do something in isolation when you can pass problems or costs on to others. It would be just about impossible to apply the Alberta solution to all of Canada. The additional revenues generated by the oil industry in Alberta this year could not be duplicated for Canada as a whole. The situation there is a highly specific one.
We should have a look as well at what all of this is doing to the health care system and to hospitals. I would like to quote a few passages from the Reform Party's document on decentralization, which echoes the Liberals in talk of new federalism, decentralized federalism, federalism on the move, developing federalism and everything else they would have us believe, but always with the same idea behind it all.
They suggest transferring financial problems to the provinces, which is what decentralization is all about, while maintaining national standards. Page 24 of their document provides that the federal government would use equalization to make these national standards attainable. However, further along in the figures, we see that they are going to cut equalization payments. They are therefore denying the means to those who need it to attain the national standards. Not only do we keep
national standards high, but we cut the money and then we force them to meet the standards. How are the provinces, the recipients of equalization payments, going to attain these standards? This would be the worst decentralization scenario, if it were handled this way. We would of course keep all the departments on overlap service.
Further on, the document states that, in terms of the health care system, essential services must be maintained so that they may be covered. What is an essential service? What does it mean? Under this kind of health care system, does it mean that essential services will be available to anyone, at any hospital, on any given day? Do they know what the impact of all this will be? It is said that prevention is one of the weak spots in our health care system and in our society in general. I would be curious to see the impact that only covering essential services will have on that.
People with health problems that they consider minor will not get out and get treatment. What kind of health problems will that lead to? Obviously, they do not talk about this. Their approach is overly simplistic. If I were a teacher in a CEGEP-I suppose that such projects could not be considered university level-and I had to mark this project, I would be hard put to give it a passing mark.
I would like to touch on what could be done. There are some things that we should do to improve government finances, because they have been suggested. There is a difference between making things even more difficult for people, which is what the Reform Party would do, and doing nothing, which is what the current government is doing-it did nothing to reduce the deficit in its first year, then decided to put changes off for a year and is too afraid to make a move before the referendum in Quebec.
We must not think that we can fix 24 consecutive years of overspending in 15 or 20 minutes of debate, as the Reformers would have us believe, or by jotting a few things down on paper; it is much more complex than that. We must take progressive steps, like the ones we need for our tax system.
I have been lucky enough, in these times, to travel throughout Quebec with the youth commission on the future of Quebec and to hear many visions for the future; how to build the desired society and the principles on which it should be built, be it Canada or Quebec. The values and principles mentioned most frequently are those of fairness and justice.
No one has any solutions to offer, apparently. We are told to emphasize certain things. There is little mention of collecting unpaid taxes, which would reportedly amount to some $6 or $7 billion. We can certainly not collect all of it, but we could at least collect part of it, even if it is only $2 or $3 billion per year over the next two years.
As for overlapping and waste by the federal government in particular, a great deal of money could be saved in this area, perhaps a few billion more. The only matter on which we agree with the Reformers is that of business subsidies. We can indeed eliminate subsidies which are in any case not effective and which distort the market. In the area of defence, more cuts can be made; $1.5 or $1.6 billion in additional cuts could easily be made.
We would also have to look closely at certain tax rules. We have talked about family trusts ever since we came to the House, so much so that I am getting fed up with the whole subject. Talk, talk, talk, but nothing happens. We must also reconsider the approach of investing in megaprojects. A restrictive tax policy would lead to a slightly more relaxed monetary policy, especially in regard to short term interest rates. The impact on our economy would not be negligible.
Certain measures would serve, over the next two years, to restore public finances to a level which would make foreign investors more confident, decrease pressure on interest rates and improve Canada's economy on the whole.
I shall conclude with the choices available. For a good number of Quebecers, 1995 is the year for making choices. For Canadians as a whole, it is also the year to make financial choices and, as the time draws nearer, a greater number of possibilities emerge, such as the Reform proposal, a proposal which has not been put forward in Quebec. Reformers need only look at the results of the byelections in Brome-Missisquoi and even in Saint-Henri-Westmount to see that their vision of society in the future, their vision is not catching on at all in Quebec and probably never will because it is out of touch with reality.
If this vision is becoming widespread in Canada, no wonder the union between Quebec and Canada is in trouble. So, if this is how Reformers see things, let us not be surprised if this vision has an impact on the choices Quebecers make, because they see things differently. So, I really wish they would stop wanting to cut in the financial assistance provided to Quebec on account of the fact that it receives more in terms of social assistance, unemployment insurance and transfer payments. I wish that Quebecers could levy their owns taxes and spend these amounts effectively so that they would not need to be on the receiving end of such programs, so that fewer people would be in need.
But for that to happen, half the economic lever must not be left in the hands of someone who could not care less anyway about economic development. In that respect, the Quebec government has come up with a solution, a solution it is putting forward with the support of the Bloc Quebecois and perhaps even another party, the Democratic Action Party, which is making it increasingly clear it wants Quebec to be fully sovereign.
So, there is growing support in Quebec for sorting out our problems on our own and letting others do the same, but I am still not convinced that this vision of the Reformers is shared by all Canadians. I certainly hope that is not the case, because this is no way of looking at the future, this is not something desirable.
To conclude, there is a whole range of possibilities between doing nothing, which is the Liberal approach, and laying off everybody and putting everyone on the street, as the Reform Party is suggesting. Good for them. Preparing this budget has kept them busy for a few days, but I do not think it will be very useful in the long run, in the greater scheme of things, to put the fiscal house in order.