Mr. Speaker, I thank my fellow members and all of the members who gave themselves a break because they were taking notes of this presentation. Even though I said I would provide them with a hard copy, they are still continuing to take notes and listen observantly to what I have to say. Their constituents are the ones who would be impacted by the signing of Kyoto. They are the ones who would pay the costs of increased transportation and power bills. The fact that there is no way around it is what I hope to develop in my remarks this.
As far as relevance, I do not believe I have said anything that does not refer directly to Kyoto and what Kyoto's impacts would be. That is what makes this subject so important and provides all of us with so much energy to continue this battle.
The Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters are but one group that has examined this. I want to quote that organization as an example because it is a good example of what it feels the impacts would be. It says that Canada would be 40% above Kyoto greenhouse gas targets by 2010 with the expected growth of this country.
Let us go back to Australia for a moment. Why did the Australians say initially that they must have 8% above 1990 levels and in fact they could not sign on to Kyoto? How could they say that? They have now opted out of Kyoto. They argued that they were a big country with a growing population and do not have the transportation infrastructure of Europe. Obviously, that fits Canada too, yet Canada was naive enough to think that it could sign Kyoto with all those targets and achieve them. It is impossible to achieve those targets.
Should we do something about pollution? Yes. Should we do something about global warming? Yes. But there is a better way.
The manufacturers said that Kyoto would result in 450,000 lost jobs in this country by 2010 and it would cost at least $3 billion per year in international credits. That is $3 billion that could be used in research and development to develop a clean environmental industry. That is $3 billion that could be used in advanced education to train experts. We lose 22,000 graduates per year from this country.
I am pretty proud of my own family members. Let me tell the House their history. My son was a Rhodes Scholar who went to Oxford for four years and ended up teaching there for half a year. He then came looking for a job in Canada. He could not find one. He was offered jobs at Harvard, Yale and Princeton. He is now at Princeton and has tenure there. He is lost to Canada; he cannot come back. Canada did not offer him that opportunity. When we send that $3 billion or $5 billion to another country, we will never have the money to put into advanced education, and research and development.
I have a daughter who was just here as a guest speaker at a conference. She is a statistician and develops computer models. She got her Ph.D. in Holland. There were 19 countries that offered her a job, but not Canada. We do not have the money for those kinds of people and that is pretty sad.
The manufacturers state that it would cost Canadians $30,000 per household to retrofit their homes. David Suzuki says it would only cost $12,000 per home.
The point is that it does not really matter whether it is $12,000 or $30,000. When we are talking about that single mother, that family with two kids or that senior on a fixed income, whether it is $12,000 or $30,000 really does not matter much, because they do not have that expendable income to put into retrofitting their houses. The government is counting on 20% of its emissions credits coming from retrofitting of houses. How will that happen? Who will pay for that? Will the government send out a cheque to everybody who wants to retrofit their house? We know what happened in the seventies when they encouraged people to buy more insulation. There were fly by night operations, companies doubled their price for insulating houses, and it was a big rip-off. It ended with a huge bureaucracy trying to chase down all the offenders. Is that what the government has planned? Is that how we will retrofit the houses? It is fine to say that, but how do we achieve it?
The manufacturers, which I am still quoting, say that the cost of electricity will go up by 100%. Our power bills will double. They say that our natural gas bills will go up by 60% and gasoline for cars will go up by 80%. Let us remember what the Europeans said about what should happen to our gas prices. They said that we in North America have no right to charge 70 cents for a litre of gas, that we have no right to do that because it is environmentally unsound and that the price of gas should be in the $2-plus range. That is how we stop consumption. That is how we fix the environment. That is what the Europeans are telling us. That is what Kyoto is all about.
How will people in the second coldest country in the world, with no transportation infrastructure other than roads, achieve those kinds of targets when the price of fuel goes up? When we have electricity prices and natural gas prices increasing, how will we handle that? Do we not at least have a duty in the House to tell the Canadian public what it will cost, how we will implement it and what it will mean to them? How will it affect their jobs? How will it affect the way they live in this country?
Again we come back to the fact that we have signed 200 agreements since 1992. The Auditor General in her report, of which the House has a copy, said to the government that it has signed 200 agreements on the environment since 1992 and she has just audited 60 of them. That was a month ago.
The quote that we must keep using is this statement:
The federal government is not investing enough--enough of its human and financial resources; its legislative, regulatory and economic powers; or its political leadership--to fulfill its sustainable development commitment. The result is a growing environmental, health and financial burden that our children will have to bear.
That is a pretty harsh condemnation of a country, but we hear that same argument being used: “We will sign on to Kyoto. We probably cannot hit those targets, but do not worry about it because no one will hit their targets”. That is sure real commitment, real honesty with Canadians, and again, there are penalties associated with signing on to Kyoto.
The Alberta government has the name for being the big fighter in this whole thing, but I want to remind hon. members that there are a lot more provinces fighting a lot harder. We can touch on a few of them. The Alberta government has done a fair amount of research and I am sure other governments have. I am surprised that the Ontario government has not committed more to research into what it will cost the average person in Ontario, but let us take up some of the Alberta figures, which talk about a $23 billion to $40 billion cut in GDP.
That sort of reduction in GDP is a major figure in our standard of living. That means we would not have money for health care, for interest payments, or for our military. All of these things would be impacted because we signed on to this international agreement, if it costs us that much.
Their research and their econometric models show there would be a loss of about 70,000-plus jobs. The government started off by saying that 60,000 jobs would be lost. That figure is now up to 200,000. The Department of Industry just did a report that said the government underestimated the cost by 30%. What are Canadians to believe? How do they know what to believe when they get those messages, when the figures do not jive? How do they know what to believe when they are not being told what it is going to cost and what the impact would be? Government studies also say that as well.
It is important at this point in time to talk about the provinces because we now have eight out of ten provinces saying that we should not ratify Kyoto today until we know exactly what it means to us. Eight out of ten provinces is a lot.
I was on a talk show this morning. The number one question was, why can Manitoba sign on? Manitoba can sign on because it wants the federal government to help it develop the hydroelectric potential in northern Manitoba. It wants to send that power to Sault Ste. Marie and get into the Ontario power grid. That province is doing it for money. What a shock. That environment minister who stands up and sounds just so righteous is doing it for money. Manitoba is doing it not for the environment but for money.
What about Quebec? I think Quebec is going to change its position when it sees the grab of provincial authority and agriculture and forestry. I think Quebec as well will see that this power grab by the federal government is a darn good reason to oppose this. Quebec also hopes, of course, to attract a lot of industry because of the clean energy credits for hydroelectricity. That is obvious. Quebec has every right to do that.
What about Atlantic Canada? I quoted a cab driver earlier. I think he probably put it into the best language possible when he said that Halifax finally had an industry bringing revenue to the province, one that is going to last for quite a long time into the future, and the Government of Canada is going to shut it down. The province will be shut down at the very time that it is about to gain self-sufficiency and about to be proud of where it is going.
The provinces of Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick also have an opportunity to achieve. Yes, we can improve technology. Yes, we can do a lot better. Yes, we should do something, but we should not shut them down at the very time they are about to get on their feet again. The government is mismanaging this about as well as it mismanaged the cod industry. People out there are starting to draw those comparisons. Again, I know that Canadians across the country are going to oppose this plan simply because of that. B.C. is in much the same situation. It is not going to get credits for its agriculture and forestry. Neither is Saskatchewan. Neither is Alberta, and neither is Manitoba if the government would tell the truth.
So we then come to October 2002. At this point we have to refer to the so-called plan, which, just for reference, is called the climate change draft plan. It is being kind to call it a plan. It leaves out some very important things. What would it cost? How would we implement it? What industries would be impacted? How would they be impacted? How would it affect jobs?
The draft plan is something. It is fatter than what we received in March and it looks a little nicer. Somebody put a little more time putting it together. This is the so-called plan. What does this so-called plan say? Let us analyze it. I do not think the Speaker wants me to read the whole plan into the record. I remember the Speaker once reading a lot of Latin names for a few hours. That was enjoyed. That might be about the same as reading this into the record. It is about as clear and at about the same level of understanding, whether it is in Latin or in English.
Let us talk about some of the main premises in this plan. First, it starts by saying that the science is very clear. That is a profound statement. It is a profound statement particularly when there is one group of 17,000 scientists saying that it is not clear, that they have major doubts about Kyoto and its ability to fix anything. When the plan says the science is clear, I wonder what that means. In what way is it clear? The IPCC, the scientific gurus of this whole issue, say it is not clear. I will quote some of them later on and let members know what the experts say about the clarity of Kyoto.
The plan then goes to say that our economy will grow while we reduce emissions, yes, that our economy will grow. If economists or investment brokers were asked about what is going to happen to our economy next year, 2003, they would tell us that they expect a very sluggish market. They expect a very up and down kind of market, but this plan says that our economy is going to continue to grow by 3% to 4%. I hope that is right. I hope the government can say that our economy will continue to grow by 3% or 4% for the next 10 years. That is just great news.
Mr. Speaker, I know that you know a little bit about investments and a little bit about investment brokers and that system, and you tell me if you can find anybody who will guarantee that the economy will grow by 4% for the next 10 years. In fact, we probably cannot get anyone to tell us that it will grow in the next month. That is just the nature of the markets, of the bull and the bear markets that go on. They cannot be predicted, but this plan says that the government can predict that our economy will continue to grow for the next 10 years. That is really amazing.
I wonder who put this thing together. It is interesting that we had a supply day on October 24 and this showed up on the morning of October 24. It is pretty interesting that a plan would come up that fast and on the same day. Maybe it is coincidence, but I think what it is, and this is terrible to say, is that the bureaucrats worked all night coming up with this and they had to get this all photocopied and put together by 8:30 that morning. Because if it was not that way, how could they make these kinds of stupid statements? How could they say these kinds of things? Almost every single word in there can be analyzed and we can say that it cannot be predicted, that it is just pie in the sky stuff, just Chicken Little running across the country with the disasters. That is where this came from. This is not anything based on fact.
The report then states that “extensive consultations” have occurred. All the provinces and territories are saying that there are 12 things they want and that they do not think they were consulted adequately. All of the provinces are saying that, including Manitoba and Quebec. They do not think they were consulted properly. They are all speaking out today.
Industry definitely says it was not consulted. It has not even been given targets yet. It does not even know what targets mean or how it will be targeted.
Canadians certainly have not been consulted. There were meetings across the country in June. Those meetings were by invitation only. No media were allowed, no public was involved and then Chicken Little said that Canadians had been consulted. I was not allowed to go. Finally when I was allowed to go, I was not allowed to talk. Is that consultation? Is that public involvement? One can go but cannot talk? Give me a break.
It says “extensive consultations have occurred”. Yes, the government consulted with the special interest groups it funds. It consulted with its public. I doubt if it consulted with its backbench because I do not think they know any different themselves.
I have heard the statement, “no undue burden on any region or sector”, so many times that I just cannot believe the government continues to say it. The automotive manufacturing business is the first target. The oil and gas business is the first target. They are bound to be targets. When they are targeted what does that do to those jobs?
We know it will affect some areas more than others. The province to be hit the hardest by Kyoto will be Ontario. The next provinces to be hit will be Saskatchewan and Alberta and it will go down from there. It will impact some regions more than others. Canadians have a right to know. They have a right to know the costs. They have the right to know which regions will be targeted. We must give them that opportunity.
Because time is short and there is a lot to be said on this subject, I will move on. We have these three steps to an overall plan. I really like this one because it has three segments to it. Step one are actions underway, representing 80 megatonnes. Step two are actions we are thinking about taking, which represents 100 megatonnes. Step three are options for the remainder, which is 60 megatonnes. We do not have a clue how we will do that but maybe we can get clean energy credits from someone. Who knows who might give them to us. Maybe we can con some Europeans into agreeing to something.
Let us look at what these categories might mean. This will be difficult as we go through this because there are varying points of view.
First, let me talk about the predicted implications of this whole thing if we do not do this. If we are to do those three steps, it is pretty important that we know what will happen to us if we do not.
The government says that by the year 2100 we will have a 1.4° to 5.8° increase in temperature. It says that we will have droughts, insect infestations, increased heatwaves, reduced air quality and health problems. It says that we will not develop any new technologies to deal with any of this and that we cannot adapt at all. Even though man has always adapted, we cannot adapt. That is about the worst scenario we could possibly get.
The 40 models that the IPCC has ranges like that, except it forgot to include that one of the groups of models of the 40 says that we might have a problem of the earth cooling. Why would that happen? The biggest reason is alternate energy is reducing its cost by 50% every 10 years. By the years 2030 to 2040 it will become competitive and will not produce any CO
2
. Guess what? The IPCC is saying that perhaps we will not have enough CO
2
by the year 2060. Is that right?
The government selectively chooses which pieces of which model it wants to use. There are 40 models. How can it deceive the Canadian public by cherry-picking the models and using what it wants to scare people so it can do something and have a legacy? What is that all about? Canadians across the country ask us all the time why we are ratifying Kyoto. The only answer I can come up with is that it is to make us feel good, to be part of the international club and to give the Prime Minister a legacy. That is a pretty lousy reason for Canadians.
Remember that our target is 6% below 1990 levels by the year 2012. Remember that the megatonne gap is 240 megatonnes. I talked about that already. Remember as well that Canada is the second coldest country with large distances. We have a poor transportation infrastructure and a growing population.
What else does this powder-puff PowerPoint presentation say? It says that for us to do this it will dependent upon collaboration and partnership. The provinces are not onside. Industry is not onside. The chambers of commerce are not onside. Canadians do not know what is about to hit them. Collaboration and partnership?
The only ones that are in partnership are the David Suzukis of this world or the Pembina Institute. All have their hands out to the government. All receive tax reductions for their fundraising. Sure they are onside. That is on what they live. They exist because they have their hands out to the government. They are buddies. They are in bed together. There is no question as to why they would be on side.
Does anyone think they will come out against the government? If they did, their money would be cut off the next day. It is their bread and butter to agree with the government. They are there to let the government con people into some agreement like this. I do not think Canadians are not that foolish. Collaboration and partnership? Let us examine who is onside, who is not and why.
With respect to fairness and balance across the country, I do not think that every province will agree that they are being treated fairly and equally in terms of these negotiations. I do not think many business leaders, certainly not the ones that I have talked to, and I have talked to a lot of them, feel they are being treated fairly. Certainly those people on Sunday in Hamilton did not think they were being treated fairly because they did not even know what Kyoto was. Those are the working people of the country. Those are the people who do not read the newspaper everyday and do not know what Kyoto is.
The government has minimized the costs of this whole thing. It has no details. It has talked about more federal funds for initiatives, for innovation and for research and development. This is one question I would ask and I think most members here should ask. If we are to have more funds for initiatives, innovation and research and development, from where will the money come? What will cut out to come up with the money for that? From where will it come?
In answering that question, since I do not think anyone will agree to reduce health care or many other government programs, the only solution I can come up with is a tax. What are we aiming at? We will aim at carbon. What will we do? We will tax carbon. What does that mean? That means we will tax anything that utilizes carbon, which is transportation, fuel, energy. All those things are carbon dioxide producers, so we have to tax them. It does not say that anywhere, but what else can it mean?
The government talks about some of the options that we can use in this country. What are some of the things we can do? It talks about targeted measures. It suggests road tolls on major highways and enforcement of the current speed limits. That would save us 4.1 megatonnes.
I was driving to the Toronto airport on Highway 401 on a Sunday afternoon. I will not say what speed I was driving but everyone passed me. They were going 120 kph, 130 kph and 140 kph. We will reduce their speed and we will enforce it. How will we do that? Obviously we will have to double, triple or quadruple the police force. We will have to put in technology on our highways.
Does every Canadian know that we will be putting tolls on major highways, that we will be enforcing the speed limit and that there has even been talk about reducing the speed limit to 80 kph. How will that impact Canadians? It will impact them a lot. Should we do that? Show us the figures. Get our commitment. Show us why we need to do it. We will not do it through this kind of a presentation.
We will get 3.4 megatonnes from the expansion of public transit. That is really good. I think we should do that. That is a great idea, but who will pay for it? How much does it cost? Where will it go? I would love to see a train that went every 15 minutes between Calgary and Edmonton that I could jump on in Red Deer. I would sure do that rather than drive and have the hassle of that. I am not like the cabinet ministers here who leave their cars running all day to keep warm. I would have to leave mine running all week at the Calgary airport. I would have to have a fuel truck go by every few days. I would love to have increased transit, but we are a big country. It is tough to deliver on that one.
We will retrofit 20% of the existing housing stock and commercial buildings. That will save 2.7 megatonnes. That is great, but remember David Suzuki has said, and Greenpeace agrees, that to retrofit a house is about $12,000. The manufacturers have said that it is $30,000. Again, I come to the point, that $12,000 or $30,000 for a senior on a fixed income, or for a family of four, or for a single mom does not much matter. They cannot afford it.
We will retrofit these houses. What does that mean then? The government puts that in its so-called plan. Will it give credits for that? Will it send out a cheque to those people to do that? Where will the money come from to do that?
It is fine to say that we will have road tolls, that we will make the speed limit whatever, that we will have more public transit and that we will retrofit all the houses, but the government is counting on that as things already done to give us credits. That is a long way to go. Here are the big unknowns.
What are the costs of these targeted measures? What is the effectiveness and feasibility of doing them? There are questions after questions. The government is giving no answers, none at all.
What is the willingness of people to cooperate in all of these things? Do those people driving on Highway 401 want to drive 80 kph? Will they be happy if the technology is used and every one of them pays a traffic ticket? I saw the fines posted on the sign. Literally they will be sending their month's income on charges and probably lose their drivers' licences. That should help the productivity of the country.
In buying permits, if I am a dirty company and he is a clean company, I will have to buy credits from him. Who will handle all this? What kind of bureaucracy do we need to monitor the selling, buying and trading of credits? Who will do that?
The Europeans are putting a bureaucracy in place. They are big on bureaucracy. They love it. We have to do that here. Our biggest trading partner does not have to do any of this, so what effect does that have on jobs? The sensitivity of costs and policy mix; just think about it. Our biggest trading partner's companies do not operate under any of these rules. How are we going to stay competitive? Will our dollar have to drop to 30¢ so we can sell our products in the U.S.?
Is that what Canadians want? Is that what the government wants? It is fine for the Prime Minister to say, “Well, this will be my legacy and let the next guy worry about it”. He might dislike the next guy enough just to make this happen to fix the next guy. Is that fair to Canadians? I do not think so.
The final unknown I pulled out of this is the modelling. I cannot believe the deceit in the modelling. Mr. Speaker, if you would like me to I could read into the record about 800 pages of modelling, but I do not know if you want it all. I summarized it last night. I have it tabbed and I will get to it. There was a member yesterday who really wanted to know all of this. I told him I could summarize it and I will get to that.
The government has picked and chosen what it wants from the models. That is not how modelling works. What is put in is what we get out; that is how modelling works. We have to look at these models and look at what was put in.
The government put in figures like 3¢ for a barrel of oil. It put in figures like $10 for a carbon credit. Those figures were put in, even though some people say carbon credits might sell for $500, even though some of the oil and gas companies say the cost of production could increase by many dollars, not 3¢. When numbers like that are put in, sure the models will tell us what we want them to tell us. That is just to be expected.
This is not in the plan, but it has been suggested that these are the kinds of things we could do to achieve our goals. I want to think about these because they are actual suggestions that some bureaucrats came up with. These are some of the ones that did not make it but they were thinking about them.
We could resurface 6,500 kilometres of highways with cement. That does not take into account our weather conditions. It does not take into account slippery roads. Most important, it does not take into account what it would cost to pave 6,500 kilometres of road with cement. We cannot even pave them or fill the potholes, let alone put in cement.
The bureaucrats said we could retrain 250,000 truck drivers. I tried to find out what that retraining would involve. Largely it would involve that they would not brake and accelerate as fast which uses more fuel, and they would drive at the speed limit. Those 250,000 truck drivers would be retrained to drive the speed limit, to not accelerate. I guess they run over a few cars or whatever when they do not stop very fast. We would soon learn whether they had been retrained if there was a big semi coming down on us.
We are going to retrofit 20% of our houses. We talked about the problems with that. We are going to upgrade the heating and other equipment throughout the country. That sounds really good too. We will turn everything to natural gas and get rid of anything else. We will probably use water heat, maybe some solar panels. What will it cost? Who will pay for that, especially when it gets dark as early as it does in December?
We are going to organize and implement permit markets. Bureaucracy, bureaucracy and bureaucracy is what that says to me.
We are going to buy 20,000 alternate fuel vehicles for the government. That sounds like a pretty good idea. It is similar to when the Minister of the Environment sent out his letter to the cabinet ministers and said he thought they would be setting a good example if they all went to energy efficient cars or to alternate fuel vehicles. If we were to go outside right now and check the cars, there is only one.