That's a great question.
Why does a price on pollution necessarily get us to that pathway of 1.5 degrees by 2050?
One thing that I'm unclear about in this overall discussion is what the government is proposing today. I heard you say carbon tax several times. That's not what I hear. I might be mistaken, but I hear a price on pollution, which could be an ETS system or a carbon tax, and those are two fundamentally different ways to approach the problem. They're both pricing pollution. One is through a market mechanism and one is through a policy, non-market mechanism. Essentially, they both put a price on the same thing.
I would say that the way we get the pathway there is through a change in behaviour. A tax on carbon is a way to incentivize reductions in the industrial space—the highest-emitting sectors—but also to distribute the income generated from that to emission reduction strategies and low-emission technologies. We work on both sides of the problem, where you have incentive for behaviour change to reduce overall emissions on the one hand, and you produce technologies that rely on fewer emissions on the other hand. You get closer to net neutrality overall.
On an ETS scheme, the system is to incentivize behaviour change as well, with a trading scheme to set a cap at an appropriate level that dictates how we get to that point. Overall—and this is from a purely pragmatic perspective—the cap-and-trade system to date has been overly politicized, and the target hasn't been set appropriately to meet the temperature threshold.
We need to actually set the threshold in a way that makes sense, and then the price will fluctuate appropriately. We are going to see what the IPCC also recommended: that the price on pollution is going to increase from what we think today—which is another 30/90 scenario in Canada—to upwards of $130 to $5,500 dollars per tonne of carbon to meet the actual commitment.
That sounds scary and volatile, but to me it also sounds like a tremendous financial market opportunity to get us to that goal that you said we all need to strive towards. I don't think the system is agnostic, but the solution is a price on pollution.
I will point out that economists—and they're smarter than I am in this space—generally say the most efficient way to get there is through a universal tax mechanism. I trust that could be the case.